Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 25: New York Jets

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Welcome back for year 29 of the Eyes of the Guru column. Last summer, I started a new tradition with the EOTG, posting team-by-team rather than a division at a time. The goal here is to give our customers a more steady diet of information in smaller doses.

These teams have been covered so far:

Arizona | Atlanta | Baltimore | Carolina | Chicago | Cincinnati | Cleveland | Denver | Detroit | Green Bay | Houston | Indianapolis | Jacksonville | Kansas City | Las Vegas | LA Chargers | LA Rams | Minnesota | NY Jets | New Orleans | Pittsburgh | San Francisco | Seattle | Tampa Bay | Tennessee

There is another step in the evolution of the column this year as well. I have talked about the need for positional realignment among edge defenders and interior defensive linemen for several years now, and the True Position format has finally arrived. Not every league host site has come to see the light, but many have. The rest are eventually sure to follow.

Going forward, I will be treating and labeling all edge defenders as defensive ends. This will include 4-3 defensive ends, 3-4 outside linebackers, and anyone else in the new hybrid schemes of today's NFL that makes a living by chasing quarterbacks off the edge. Likewise, the defensive tackle position will include all interior defensive linemen in 4-3 schemes and all down linemen in 3-4 alignments. As a result of this approach, we have eliminated the constant arguments and flip-flopping of positions among these players.

For reference, when mentioning where players finished in the rankings last season, my model will be the standard Footballguys scoring system. This is the basic stuff:

• Tackles = 1.5
• Assists = .75
• Sacks = 4
• Forced fumbles = 3
• Fumble recoveries = 3
• Interceptions = 4
• Passes defended = 1.5
• Touchdowns = 6

When tackle numbers are mentioned, solo stops and assists are generally not lumped together. Unless there is a reference one way or the other, tackles refer to solo stops. When talking about the total number of takeaways for a player, I am counting interceptions, fumble recoveries, and fumbles forced since all of these are scored very similarly in most leagues. Keep in mind that based on scoring systems, rankings will vary (sometimes greatly) from league to league.

From time to time, the rookie corner rule will be referenced. For those who are new to IDP or the EOTG, the rookie corner rule is the basic fact that in the NFL, starting a rookie on the corner is like throwing chum to the sharks. Offensive coordinators will target young and inexperienced players as weaknesses. Thus, these guys have an accelerated number of opportunities. Often these players are the cream of the crop at the position (which is why they are starting so soon), and their numbers will begin to drop steadily after their rookie seasons.

Overview

It’s been a while since the Jets were fun to talk about, but we are finally there. There is Aaron Rodgers and all the talk about interest in DeAndre Hopkins and Dalvin Cook etc. We’re used to the offense getting the spotlight, but this defense is on its way to being special.

Last year’s Jets were tough against the pass. They had the ninth-lowest completion percentage, were third in yards against, second in yards per attempt, and tied for seventh in sacks with 45. To top it off, no one allowed fewer points through the air. When teams are that good versus the pass, it is often because opponents run over them instead. This Jets team, however, ranked sixth at 4.2 yards per carry. They were middle of the pack in rush yards and touchdowns on the ground, but that’s because they faced the eighth most rushing attempts.

New York has made a big investment on the defensive side over the last couple of years, using both draft capital and free-agent money to build a winner. On the field, they did everything well, with one exception, taking the ball away. The Jets were just below the median with fourteen interceptions in 2022, but only the Steelers forced fewer than New York’s four fumbles, and just three teams created fewer total takeaways. You can bet that will be a focus from the first day of training camp.

Defensive Linemen

A lot of people wondered what the Jets were doing when they used yet another first-round pick on a defensive end this spring. They were already loaded at the position after picking up Jermaine Johnson in round one and Michael Clemons in the fourth last year to go with Carl Lawson and John Franklin-Myers. So what were they thinking when they took Will McDonald at fifteen? They were thinking, we just watched the Eagles have four players with double-digit sacks, record 70 as a team, and go to the Super Bowl. It is a copycat league, after all.

For starters, we may never again see a performance like the one Philadelphia put on. However, the Jets have the kind of attacking, pressure scheme that a team would need to make such a run, and they have a lot of talent though much of it is unproven at the NFL level.

The Jets are loaded on the outside, but it was tackle Quinnen Williams that led the team in sacks with twelve. Williams is one of the elite defensive tackles in the league. He was drafted to play the 5-technique in the Jets 3-4 under a previous coaching regime. Fortunately for New York, he has the same skill set teams look for at the three-technique in an aggressive 4-3.

Williams is an active and mobile big man that does an excellent job of getting off blocks to make plays in tight spaces. He also has enough range and quickness to show up outside the tackle box. Most guys that are north of 300 pounds will rely heavily on the bull rush in passing situations. Williams can bullrush with the best of them, but he’s not a one-trick pony.

His prowess as a pass rusher showed up in 2020 and 2021 when Williams kicked in seven and six sacks, respectively, but no one expected last year’s explosion of 34-21-12 with 3 takeaways and 4 batted passes. That kind of sack production is hard to repeat, especially for an interior guy, so until he proves that twelve is his new norm, eight or nine sacks might be more realistic expectations. One thing that requires no speculation is Williams’ tackle production. In each of the last three seasons, he has at least 33 solo stops, at least 51 combined, and at least 3 batted passes.

Williams was the IDP game’s number four defensive tackle in 2022, marking his second top-five in three seasons while finishing at twelve in the other one. If your league breaks out the positions, Williams is an elite tier DT1. If all linemen are equal, he is a strong and consistent DL2.

Quinton Jefferson is penciled in as the other starter at tackle. He was steady and dependable as a starter for the Seahawks over most of the last five seasons but has never been much of an IDP factor. With Solomon Thomas, Al Woods, and possibly Michael Clemons also in line for snaps, Jefferson will have to show us something before we make any investment.

Figuring out the Jets' goal is a lot easier than figuring out who, if anyone, is going to have IDP value at their defensive end positions. Seven players saw at least 153 snaps at these spots in 2022. None of them played more than 663, none of them had more than seven sacks, and none of them made the top 75.

John Franklin-Myers and Carl Lawson started and saw relatively equal playing time at around 650 snaps. Rookies Jermaine Johnson and Michael Clemons each collected about 312 snaps as their main backups. Both Franklin-Myers and Lawson are veterans so we can look at their track records and develop expectations.

Lawson is more of an edge rusher that plays on early downs than a three-down defensive end. He had the second most sack on the team with seven but often fares poorly when teams run right at him. That translates to poor tackle numbers. Over five NFL seasons, Lawson has 67 solo tackles, 24 of which are sacks. The bottom line, there is no IDP value here.

Franklin-Myers is a player that flies under the radar. There isn’t any fanfare and you don’t hear much from commentators about him, but the guy plays good football. He’s not the quickest, fastest, or most athletic. He’s not the biggest or strongest. He just plays hard and quietly gets the job done.

Franklin-Myers was a fourth-round pick of the Rams in 2018, signed with the Jets in 2019, and became a starter in 2021. He hasn’t put up flashy numbers yet, and if the young guys live up to their draft status, he probably won’t have a chance to, but if Franklin-Myers somehow ends up in an 800-snap role, he might be roster worthy. Unfortunately, 35 or so combined tackles and five or six sacks are likely to be his ceiling.

The big question for the Jets is when/if the young defensive ends will be ready to take over. One factor that might shed a little light, Lawson is in the final year of his contract. Beyond that, it all comes down to how well they play.

As mentioned several times in past articles, it usually takes rookie edge defenders a year to get their feet under them. Hopefully, that is the case with Johnson and Clemons. They played virtually the same number of snaps (311 and 312) and put up very similar numbers. Joshnon at 18-11-2.5 and Clemons at 22-14-2.5. Both players got the experience they needed and are candidates for a considerably more productive year.

Johnson was the fourth edge defender taken in last year’s draft. He is six foot five and is up from 254 pounds as a rookie to 262 entering training camp. Johnson is long and lanky with a huge wingspan and the frame to add even more muscle without affecting his speed or explosion. He was considered a bit raw entering the league, with only one season as a college starter, but that one season was impressive.

Michael Clemons had a solid career at Texas A&M, where he recorded 76 combined tackles and 11 sacks in 15 games over his final two years. He is a Sam Hubbard type that lacks premium pass-rush potential but is physical at the point of attack and has a great motor. He may never reach double-digit sacks in a season but could become a good, three-down player at some point.

There has been a lot of chatter from various places about Clemons possibly moving to tackle, where he could contribute as an inside pass rusher. There is some logic in these suggestions, but so far, nothing has been mentioned about it by anyone inside the organization. The bottom line for Clemons, there is a lot of competition for playing time along this front.

That takes us to the low man on the totem pole entering training camp, Will McDonald. This is a player that has a lot going for him. He’s explosive off the edge, has great flexibility, and has a spin move that gives big linemen headaches. He racked up an impressive 34 sacks over five seasons at Iowa State (three as a starter), and should continue to wreak havoc as a pass rusher in the NFL. The problem for IDP managers is that he’s 241 pounds. McDonald should have no problem finding an early role as a rush specialist, but he has a long way to go when it comes to a starting job.

• DE Jermaine Johnson – High ceiling breakout candidate
• DE John Franklin-Myers – Marginal value likely
• DE Carl Lawson – Minimal IDP impact
• DE Michael Clemons – Some snaps at tackle would provide more opportunity
• DE Will McDonald IV – Pass rush specialist
• DE Bryce Huff – Buried on the depth chart
• DT Quinnen Williams – Elite DT1 or priority DL2
• DT Solomon Thomas – No impact
• DT Quinton Jefferson – Marginal value
• DT Al Woods – No impact