Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 19: Jacksonville Jaguars

Photo: Imagn Images

Welcome back for year 29 of the Eyes of the Guru column. Last summer, I started a new tradition with the EOTG, posting team-by-team rather than a division at a time. The goal here is to give our customers a more steady diet of information in smaller doses.

These teams have been covered so far:

Arizona | Baltimore | Chicago | Cincinnati | Cleveland | Denver | Detroit | Green Bay | Houston | Indianapolis | Jacksonville | Kansas City | Las Vegas | LA Chargers | LA Rams | Minnesota | Pittsburgh | San Francisco | Seattle

There is another step in the evolution of the column this year as well. I have talked about the need for positional realignment among edge defenders and interior defensive linemen for several years now, and the True Position format has finally arrived. Not every league host site has come to see the light, but many have. The rest are eventually sure to follow.

Going forward, I will be treating and labeling all edge defenders as defensive ends. This will include 4-3 defensive ends, 3-4 outside linebackers, and anyone else in the new hybrid schemes of today's NFL that makes a living by chasing quarterbacks off the edge. Likewise, the defensive tackle position will include all interior defensive linemen in 4-3 schemes and all down linemen in 3-4 alignments. As a result of this approach, we have eliminated the constant arguments and flip-flopping of positions among these players.

For reference, when mentioning where players finished in the rankings last season, my model will be the standard Footballguys scoring system. This is the basic stuff:

• Tackles = 1.5
• Assists = .75
• Sacks = 4
• Forced fumbles = 3
• Fumble recoveries = 3
• Interceptions = 4
• Passes defended = 1.5
• Touchdowns = 6

When tackle numbers are mentioned, solo stops and assists are generally not lumped together. Unless there is a reference one way or the other, tackles refer to solo stops. When talking about the total number of takeaways for a player, I am counting interceptions, fumble recoveries, and fumbles forced since all of these are scored very similarly in most leagues. Keep in mind that based on scoring systems, rankings will vary (sometimes greatly) from league to league.

From time to time, the rookie corner rule will be referenced. For those who are new to IDP or the EOTG, the rookie corner rule is the basic fact that in the NFL, starting a rookie on the corner is like throwing chum to the sharks. Offensive coordinators will target young and inexperienced players as weaknesses. Thus, these guys have an accelerated number of opportunities. Often these players are the cream of the crop at the position (which is why they are starting so soon), and their numbers will begin to drop steadily after their rookie seasons.

Overview

The 2022 Jaguars didn't play great defense, but after finishing near the bottom of the league in every important category in 2021, they made great strides. The pass defense was one of five to give up more than 4000 yards, but that coincides with the fact that they faced the sixth most attempts. Their completion percentage of 64.1 was middle of the pack, and the 6.8 yards per attempt, while still in the bottom half of the league, was an improvement.

Jacksonville's pass rush improved a little, adding three sacks to their 2021 total, but the team's biggest improvements came against the run and in the turnover columns. At 4.2 yards per carry, the Jaguars ranked fifth, and they were number twelve in rush yards. When it came to takeaways, it was hard to believe we were watching the same team that was dead last with nine in 2021, as last year's unit jumped all the way to 27, with only the Cowboys, Patriots, and 49ers recording more.

With things heading in the right direction defensively, the team was not a big player in free agency on that side of the ball. Nor did they commit any early-round draft capital but they did use eight of their thirteen draft picks on defense, all fourth-round or later. That is how good teams build depth.

Defensive Linemen

Last year's Jaguars had no stand-out pass rushers. Edge defender Josh Allen led the team with a modest six. What they did have is a defensive scheme that got everyone involved while keeping opponents guessing where the pressure would come from. In all, 14 players put at least one mark in the sack column.

Allen is, hands down, the team's best pass rusher. The former seventh overall pick (2019) recorded ten sacks as a rookie but hasn't gotten back to double-digits since. He missed most of 2020 with an injury and totaled seven in 2021. While those are not great numbers, there have been some extenuating circumstances. He had the knee sprain in 2020, followed by a scheme change and a dumpster fire of a season under Urban Meyer.

There is no excuse for Allen failing to produce more sacks last year, but there is another statistic we need to be aware of, quarterback pressures. What does that have to do with anything you say? Most leagues don't award points for pressures, but I like to use them as a scouting tool. For example, in 2021, Maxx Crosby of the Raiders only had six sacks, but he led the league in pressures. In 2022 he broke out for 11.5 sacks and was an elite IDP option.

Allen sits in virtually the exact same place, having been at or near the top of the league in pressures last season. Like Crosby, I think he will start turning some of those into sacks in 2023 and will be surprised if he fails to set a new career mark. With 70 combined tackles in 2021 and 58 in 2022, Allen gives us plenty of tackle production, and he has eight takeaways in three seasons. With a few more sacks, he is a quality second starter or borderline DE1.

Jacksonville used the first pick in the draft on Travon Walker last year. Most observers would count his three-and-a-half sacks as a disappointing season for someone with his draft status. If you are one of those people, you are probably going to be disappointed with his entire career.

The Jaguars knew exactly what they were getting with Walker, and it is not a sack title. In fact, he may never reach double-digit sacks in a season. In Walker, they have a player that can stay on the field in any situation, will set the edge, and be strong at the point of attack versus the run. He is not a quick twitch, speed guy that is going to blow past offensive tackles and live in the backfield, but Walker has the size, power, motor, and enough athleticism to be a factor on passing downs. His presence has already paid dividends in the team's improvement against the run.

Walker totaled 49 combined stops, 3 sacks, and 2 turnovers as a rookie. Those numbers should go up across the board in year two. Just how far remains to be seen, but I am projecting him at 38-26-6 for 2023.

It was a good thing that neither Allen nor Walker were injured last year because Jacksonville was short on depth. After producing three sacks in three seasons, K'Lavon Chaisson has been a first-round bust and is rumored to be on the roster bubble entering camp. Arden Key contributed four and a half sacks as the third man in the rotation, but he has moved on. In response to the need, the team used a couple of picks on edge defenders. They tagged Louisville's Yasir Abdullah in the fifth and Houston's Derek Parish in the seventh.

Abdullah is somewhat of a tweener with the ability to play off-ball or on the edge, but it is clear that the team plans to use him at the latter. In two seasons as a starter for the Cardinals, he totaled 123 combined tackles and 19.5 sacks. At six foot one and 235 pounds, he is not going to see much time on early downs but can contribute right away as a rush specialist. Parish has a similar build though he is a bit bigger. Over 23 games as a starter for the Cougars, he totaled 99 stops with 13.5 sacks.

There is no Aaron Donald or DeForest Buckner on this roster, but Jacksonville has a group of quality veteran players in their interior line rotation. DaVon Hamilton is a 335-pound road grader at the nose tackle position. He doesn't offer much as a pass rusher beyond the ability to push the pocket but is a formidable force against the run. With 55 combined stops, a couple of sacks, and 2 takeaways, Hamilton was the number 26 interior lineman last year, putting him in the DT3 range. That is about what we should expect in 2023 as well.

Folorunso Fatukasi, Roy Robertson-Harris, and Adam Gotsis make up the rotation at the tackle positions. Robertson-Harris is an eight-year veteran that had his most productive season with the Jaguars in 2022. But at 28-16-3, it was not enough to provide IDP relevance. Fatukasi and Gotsis have put up similar numbers throughout their careers. They form a solid core that will help the Jaguars in their quest for a playoff birth but will not do the same for our teams.

• Edge Josh Allen – Target as a DL3 with high DL2 upside
• Edge Travon Walker – DL3 with limited upside in the splash play columns
• Edge K'Lavon Chaisson – No impact expected
• Edge Shaquille Quarterman – No impact
• Edge Derek Parish – Developmental rookie rush specialist
• Edge Yasir Abdullah – Developmental rookie
• DT Folorunso Fatukasi – Marginal IDP value
• DT Roy Robertson-Harris – Marginal IDP value
• DT Michael Dogbe – May see some snaps in the rotation but no impact
• DT Adam Gotsis – No impact
• DT DaVon Hamilton – Roster worth as a DT3
• DT Raymond Vohasek – No impact
• DT Tyler Lacy – Developmental rookie