Photo: Imagn Images

Welcome back for year 29 of the Eyes of the Guru column. Last summer, I started a new tradition with the EOTG, posting team-by-team rather than a division at a time. The goal here is to give our customers a more steady diet of information in smaller doses.

There is another step in the evolution of the column this year as well. I have talked about the need for positional realignment among edge defenders and interior defensive linemen for several years now, and the True Position format has finally arrived. Not every league host site has come to see the light, but many have. The rest are eventually sure to follow.

Going forward, I will be treating and labeling all edge defenders as defensive ends. This will include 4-3 defensive ends, 3-4 outside linebackers, and anyone else in the new hybrid schemes of today’s NFL that makes a living by chasing quarterbacks off the edge. Likewise, the defensive tackle position will include all interior defensive linemen in 4-3 schemes and all down linemen in 3-4 alignments. As a result of this approach, we have eliminated the constant arguments and flip-flopping of positions among these players.

For reference, when mentioning where players finished in the rankings last season, my model will be the standard Footballguys scoring system. This is the basic stuff:

• Tackles = 1.5
• Assists = .75
• Sacks = 4
• Forced fumbles = 3
• Fumble recoveries = 3
• Interceptions = 4
• Passes defended = 1.5
• Touchdowns = 6

When tackle numbers are mentioned, solo stops and assists are generally not lumped together. Unless there is a reference one way or the other, tackles refer to solo stops. When talking about the total number of takeaways for a player, I am counting interceptions, fumble recoveries, and fumbles forced since all of these are scored very similarly in most leagues. Keep in mind that based on scoring systems, rankings will vary (sometimes greatly) from league to league.

From time to time, the rookie corner rule will be referenced. For those who are new to IDP or the EOTG, the rookie corner rule is the basic fact that in the NFL, starting a rookie on the corner is like throwing chum to the sharks. Offensive coordinators will target young and inexperienced players as weaknesses. Thus, these guys have an accelerated number of opportunities. Often these players are the cream of the crop at the position (which is why they are starting so soon), and their numbers will begin to drop steadily after their rookie seasons.

Related: See a similar in-depth look at the Kansas City Chiefs defensive players here >>>

It is not a good sign when the best thing that can be said about an NFL defense is they were mediocre against the run. That pretty much sums up the Raiders’ 2022 performance in one sentence. In their first year under head coach Josh McDaniels and defensive coordinator Patrick Graham, Las Vegas finished 29th in passing yards and 30th in completion percentage. Only the Bears and Falcons had fewer sacks, only the Bears, Lions, Vikings, and Cardinals allowed more points, and no one had fewer takeaways.

The question is, how much better can this team be in 2023? When looking at them on paper, the conclusion would be - not very much. Other than Maxx Crosby, this unit is void of star power. Watching Crosby last year was like watching J.J. Watt in his early days with the Texans. He was everywhere, but at times, it felt like he was the only defender on the field.

To their credit, the Raiders made an effort to improve. They used three picks on defense in the first four rounds, including their number one on edge defender Tyree Wilson. There are no diamonds or gold in the incoming free agent class, but there is some silver, and the unit will get starting linebacker Divine Deablo back from injury. This team was far more than a player or two away from becoming a contender, so considering all the holes they had to fill and the limited resources at their disposal, the organization did a pretty solid job and should be competitive.

Defensive Linemen

In Crosby, both the Raiders and IDP managers have a cornerstone to build a winner around. After leading the league in quarterback pressures in 2021, he was able to turn a lot more of those pressures into sacks last year. In IDP terms, Crosby was on a tier of his own, outscoring the number two defensive lineman by nearly 40 points. Expecting him to equal the stellar numbers from last year (58-30-12 with 4 turnovers and 3 batted passes) might be a mistake. Making Crosby the first defensive lineman, or even the first defender overall, off the board would not be. He may fall back to the pack some, but Crosby belongs on the elite tier of IDP options among all positions.

When the Raiders landed Chandler Jones in free agency last spring, he was coming off his seventh double-digit sack season in nine years. The presence of Jones and his reputation undoubtedly helped Crosby by keeping blocking schemes honest, but considering the expectations and the money he got, Jones was a monumental bust over the first 12 weeks. He finished at 21-17-4 with 3 batted passes and 4 takeaways but most of that production (9-5-4 with 3 turnovers, 3 batted passes, and a score) came in the three-game stretch right before he was injured in Week 16.

Jones is under contract through the 2024 season, so Raiders fans and the organization hope he will bounce back and produce as he did late in the year. At age 33, he should still have a little fuel in the tank so a bounceback is reasonable to expect, though he will never be the same guy that led the league with 19 sacks in 2018. I like Jones as a sneaky, late-round pickup. The upside makes him worth a roster spot for a couple of games just to see what happens. It could turn out to be one of those late-round steals that put a team over the top.

Even if Jones bounces back, he is not a long-term answer. So the team selected Tyree Wilson in round one to be the heir apparent. From a physical perspective, Wilson is a clone of both Crosby and Jones. Speed, athleticism, size, and a huge wingspan make him the kind of edge defender defensive coordinators salivate over. The scary part is, at 6-foot-6 and 275 pounds, Wilson is 20 pounds heavier than Crosby, 15 pounds heavier than Jones, and is still growing into his frame.

Wilson checks the box for production as well. In 23 games with Texas Tech over the last two seasons, he totaled 62 tackles, 37 assists, and 14 sacks. As with virtually all rookies, there is room to work on the technical part of his game. He will likely contribute as the third man in the rotation in his rookie season, but the tools are there for Wilson to blossom into a perennial IDP star.

The journeyman-type Jordan Willis and 2021 third-round pick Malcolm Koonce provide the rest of the depth on the edge. Both are serviceable young players if called upon but are unlikely to see significant action unless someone goes down.

The Raiders' interior line positions are manned by a cast of veterans, many of whom have bounced around the league a bit. Bilal Nichols and Jerry Tillery project as the starters, with Adam Butler, John Jenkins, and Nick Farrell behind them on the depth chart. Las Vegas picked Alabama’s Byron Young in the third round this spring. He will be buried on the depth chart to start but could battle his way into some playing time before long.

This is a serviceable group, but unless Young becomes that guy, there are no standouts here in either NFL or IDP terms. Nichols managed 45 combined stops last year, but only 15 of them were solo, and he led the team’s interior linemen with a sack and a half. Young’s numbers weren’t eye-catching either, but 48 combined tackles and 4 sacks in 13 games is enough to put an interior lineman on the watch list.

• DE Maxx Crosby – Worthy of being the first lineman off the board, maybe even the first defender
• DE Chandler Jones – Might bounce back strong and might be done
• DE Tyree Wilson – Dynasty target with huge long-term upside
• DE Malcolm Koonce – No impact expected
• DE Jordan Willis – No impact
• DT Jerry Tillery – No anticipated impact
• DT Bilal Nichols – Possible bye week flier in leagues starting two tackles
• DT Byron Young – Watch list rookie
• DT Adam Butler – No impact
• DT John Jenkins – No impact
• DT Neil Farrell Jr – No impact

Linebackers

The linebacker position had a lot to do with the Raiders’ struggles in 2022. Divine Deablo was lost to a broken arm in Week 9. Denzel Perryman was tough against the run but showed us why the Chargers used him in a two-down role during his six seasons there. Jayon Brown was just adequate in the eight games he played, and Blake Martinez hung up the cleats the week after making his first start for the team. By the end of the season, undrafted rookie Luke Masterson was the team’s best linebacker.

Deablo is healthy, the team signed former Steeler Robert Spillane in free agency, and the experience helped Masterson improve to the point that the coaching staff is comfortable with him having a role in three linebacker looks. All we have to do now is figure out who will have the more productive role in Graham’s scheme.

There is at least some chance this defense will give us two useful linebackers. There was so much turnover with the Raiders linebackers last year that it was hard to get a read, but Graham’s scheme, while running the Giants defense, usually featured one three-down backer and another that played about 75% of the snaps. Looking at New York’s rosters during his time there, it’s hard to tell if this was by design or just because the team never had two linebackers good enough to stay on the field.

What we know for sure is that Deablo played all but four snaps over the first seven games last year and looked pretty good for the most part. He failed to make any entries in the splash play columns, but that is not unusual for a guy learning both a new position and a new scheme. Deablo was a safety at Virginia Tech, converting to linebacker when the Raiders made him a third-round pick in 2021. He recently told reporters after an OTA practice that he feels much more comfortable and confident in his role going into 2023.

Deablo was leading the team in tackles with an average of better than ten combined stops per game before he was injured. That tells us he can get the job done versus the run. Having a safety background tells us he can cover. Those two things, and the fact Graham speaks very highly of him, are good reasons to be optimistic about Deablo this year.

Spillane joined Deablo with the starters in two linebacker sets during OTAs, which does not come as a surprise. During his time with the Steelers, Spillane was called upon several times to step in as a short-term starter, and he performed admirably each time. So much so in fact, that the Steelers made him part of a three-man rotation at inside linebacker to start last season and put him in the lead role with 100% participation in weeks 15 through 18. Spillane’s overall numbers have never been impressive. Last year’s totals were 50-27-1, with 4 passes defended. That does not sound like a lot until we consider he played just 588 snaps.

One of these guys is going to be highly productive for us. The other may be roster worthy as well but will likely have significantly less value. The biggest clue comes in the form of a green dot that is seen on the helmet of the defender that communicates with the sideline and calls the plays in the huddle. For most teams, that player rarely comes off the field. During OTAs, Deablo wore that helmet.

Because he has just eight games as an NFL starter and was not available for half of last season, Deablo will be out of sight, out of mind for many IDP managers. Don’t be one of those managers. He should be at least a solid LB3 for us and could be much more if he can crank up the big plays a little.

Depth continues to be an issue for the Raiders. If Deablo or Spillane are lost, Masterson would move into a more significant role. Beyond Masterson, Las Vegas has no one with significant NFL experience.

• WLB Divine Deablo – Excellent depth with the upside to be an every-week LB3
• MLB Robert Spillane – Worthy of a roster spot as a late-round flier
• SLB Luke Masterson – An injury away from having fantasy value
• MLB Curtis Bolton – No impact expected
• WLB Amari Burney - No impact expected
• SLB Darien Butler - No impact expected