Welcome back for year 29 of the Eyes of the Guru column. Last summer, I started a new tradition with the EOTG, posting team-by-team rather than a division at a time. The goal here is to give our customers a more steady diet of information in smaller doses. Following the new tradition, I will start with the Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs.
There is another step in the evolution of the column this year as well. I have talked about the need for positional realignment among edge defenders and interior defensive linemen for several years now, and the True Position format has finally arrived. Not every league host site has come to see the light, but many have. The rest are eventually sure to follow.
Going forward, I will be treating and labeling all edge defenders as defensive ends. This will include 4-3 defensive ends, 3-4 outside linebackers, and anyone else in the new hybrid schemes of today’s NFL that makes a living by chasing quarterbacks off the edge. Likewise, the defensive tackle position will include all interior defensive linemen in 4-3 schemes and all down linemen in 3-4 alignments. As a result of this approach, we have eliminated the constant arguments and flip-flopping of positions among these players.
For reference, when mentioning where players finished in the rankings last season, my model will be the standard Footballguys scoring system. This is the basic stuff:
- Tackles = 1.5
- Assists = .75
- Sacks = 4
- Forced fumbles = 3
- Fumble recoveries = 3
- Interceptions = 4
- Passes defended = 1.5
- Touchdowns = 6
When tackle numbers are mentioned, solo stops and assists are generally not lumped together. Unless there is a reference one way or the other, tackles refer to solo stops. When talking about the total number of takeaways for a player, I am counting interceptions, fumble recoveries, and fumbles forced since all of these are scored very similarly in most leagues. Keep in mind that based on scoring systems, rankings will vary (sometimes greatly) from league to league.
From time to time, the rookie corner rule will be referenced. For those who are new to IDP or the EOTG, the rookie corner rule is the basic fact that in the NFL, starting a rookie on the corner is like throwing chum to the sharks. Offensive coordinators will target young and inexperienced players as weaknesses. Thus, these guys have an accelerated number of opportunities. Often these players are the cream of the crop at the position (which is why they are starting so soon), and their numbers will begin to drop steadily after their rookie seasons.
Now that we are all speaking the same language, let’s get this thing rolling!
In 2022, just like every other team in the NFL, Kansas City looked to improve in the areas of their defense that were lacking in 2021. They succeeded when it came to the pass rush, jumping from near the bottom of the league with 31 sacks to second with 55, and the run defense improved to the top ten. Those improvements are a big step in the right direction, but the Chiefs still have issues to resolve.
Their one saving grace in 2021 was 29 total takeaways, including a league-best 14 fumble recoveries. The 2022 squad was far less opportunistic, with 20 combined takeaways, and the pass defense was simply ugly. Kansas City finished in the bottom half of the league in passing yards allowed, 22nd in completion percentage, and surrendered a league-high 33 passing touchdowns.
Defensive Linemen
Not surprisingly, the team used five of their seven draft picks on defense, including the first-round selection of defensive end Felix Anudike-Uzomah, adding another pass rusher, B.J. Thompson, in the fifth. They also added former Texan and 49er Charles Omenihu in free agency. These guys will be counted on to offset the loss of veterans Frank Clark and Carlos Dunlap, who were not invited back.
The new additions complete the youth movement on the edge, which started with the selection of George Karlaftis in round one last year. Ultimately, we should see Anudike-Uzomah join Karlaftis in the starting role, but both Omenihu and holdover Mike Danna figure to see significant action.
The Chiefs rotated four players at defensive end last season. All four of them saw at least 557 snaps, but the two starters, Clark and Karlaftis, each logged well over 800. That is plenty of opportunity for quality numbers, yet neither player put up particularly good numbers. That said, Karlaftis was on a roll to close out the regular season with five and a half sacks over the final seven games. Unfortunately, he only had eleven tackles and four assists to go with them. Light tackle totals have been the trend with Kansas City pass rushers over the last several years. Clark exceeded 26 solo stops once in eight seasons with the team. There is good upside with both Karlaftis and Anudike-Uzomah when it comes to sacks and splash play production, but modest tackle totals are likely to hold their value in check for this season and beyond.
The player most likely to buck that trend is Anudike-Uzomah, though it may not happen in his rookie season. At Kansas State, he averaged 34 tackles, 48 assists, and almost 10 sacks over two seasons as a starter. At 6-foot-3 and 252 pounds, he is a little undersized for a three-down role right out of the gate, but his potential to develop as a run defender and excel as a pass rusher makes him a strong dynasty target.
The best IDP value among the Chiefs' defensive linemen lies with tackle Chris Jones. In 2021, the coaching staff experimented with Jones at defensive end. The experiment failed miserably, and he was shifted back inside late that season. In 2022, Jones looked more like the player that topped the defensive tackle rankings back in 2018. His 15 sacks last year equaled his career-best from 2018, and his 44 combined tackles were nearly identical as well, facilitating his return to the top ten.
Jones has at least seven sacks in each of the last five seasons. He is among the elite at the position in NFL terms. If only he would be more consistent in the tackles columns, he would be a perennial elite IDP target as well. The fact is, Jones has more than 36 combined tackles in two of his seven years as a pro. He is a high-potential option for IDP managers, with the potential to finish at the top of the rankings, but betting on that kind of production is a big risk. Target him as a low-end DT1 but let someone else take the risk of picking him among the top 5 five or six at the position.
Derrick Nnadi fills out the starting lineup at nose tackle. He is a bit undersized for the one-technique by today’s NFL standards but does a good job of plugging the middle. Nnadi has little to offer in fantasy terms. He averages fewer than 40 combined tackles per season and has four career sacks in five years as a pro. Unless you are in a deep-drafted league, Nnadi is not roster worthy.
Danny Shelton should spell Nnadi at nose tackle Tershon Wharton seeing action when Jones needs a breather. Both backups are solid veterans that can hold down the fort if called upon, but neither has significant upside, even if forced into a starting role.
- DE George Karlaftis – Priority depth with DE2 potential
- DE Mike Danna – Quality NFL backup, could have value late in the year if depth comes into play
- DE Felix Anudike-Uzomah – High long-term ceiling but modest rookie expectations
- DE Charles Omenihu – Marginal value with a little upside
- DE Joshua Kaindoh – No impact expected
- DE Malik Herring – No impact expected
- DT Chris Jones – High upside DT1 but short of the elite tier
- DT Derrick Nnadi – No fantasy impact
- DT Danny Shelton – No impact
- DT Tershawn Wharton – No impact
Go Deeper: See our edge rusher projections here >>>
Go Deeper: See our defensive tackle projections here >>>
Linebackers
The Chiefs’ linebackers were a pretty easy call last year. With all the extras gone, Nick Bolton played 1321 of roughly 1335 snaps and became an IDP stud, while Willie Gay Jr logged about 70% of the snaps in games he was active and was roster worthy as a decent backup in most formats. The addition of Drue Tranquill is going to rock that boat, one way or another.
Bolton broke out and became a superstar, so there is no way they would start pulling him off the field in some situations, right? You would think not, but nothing is written in stone here. Don’t overlook the fact that the Chiefs used a four-linebacker rotation in 2021, with all participants seeing between 555 and 733 snaps. Bolton is an outstanding young player, so other than injury, there is no real risk of him being a bust. There is, however, the possibility that he could go from a 99% participant to 85-90% or so.
Bolton is a statistical machine. He tackles everything, can get home on the blitz, and is opportunistic when it comes to taking the ball away. He is not a liability in coverage, but it is not a strength of his game either. That could open the door for Tranquill, who, as a former safety, excels in coverage, to get a few snaps per game at Bolton’s expense.
What I expect to see is Bolton with a full workload of 95% or more while Tranquill, Gay, and Leo Chenal split up the rest of the playing time. We are not likely to get a depth chart from the Chiefs until training camp, so we will just have to be diligent in looking for clues. At the moment, most are assuming Gay will play on the weakside with Tranquill strong. The only thing that matters in IDP terms is if either of them will get enough playing time to be fantasy relevant. Both players are capable of good numbers if the playing time is there. If forced to pick between the two, I would roster Tranquill. He was solid as the inside starter for the Chargers last year and impressed during OTAs, for what that is worth.
- MLB Nick Bolton – Perennial top-10 star in the making.
- WLB Willie Gay Jr Jr. – Depth at best.
- SLB Drue Tranquill – top-20 potential with a lot of risk.
- MLB Leo Chenal – No impact expected.
- MLB Jack Cochran – No impact expected
Go Deeper: See our linebacker projections here >>>
Defensive Backs
With their struggles versus the pass in 2022, changes in the secondary were imminent, but there were not as many as we would normally see after such a performance. The only starters not returning are Rashad Fenton, who was lost for the season after week five, and safety Juan Thornhill who never quite lived up to expectations and has moved on.
The situation at corner has been a major topic of IDP conversation since December. That’s when the coaching staff started shifting L'Jarius Sneed to the outside and using then-rookie Trent McDuffie in the slot. Before that decision, Snead had been, far and away, the most productive corner in the game. He had at least five combined tackles in every contest through Week 16, with totals of 71 solo, 31 assists, 6 turnovers, 3.5 sacks, and 11 pass breakups. While working outside, in Weeks 17 and 18, Snead recorded six total tackles combined but did manage another interception.
Many managers and prognosticators are all but writing Snead off, assuming he will be stuck outside this year. This is certainly a possibility, but it is not a foregone conclusion by any stretch. I would point out that Snead was not on the outside for every game of the playoffs, so it might have been a matchup-driven move or even a subtle way of trying to protect a very young group of corners.
McDuffie picked up right where Snead left off, going 10-4-1 with a forced fumble and a batted pass over the final two games of the regular season. What this tells us is that either player will be highly fantasy friendly in that spot. The biggest fear is that the two, being similar in playstyle and skillset, continue to alternate from week to week. There is also the possibility they could be moved around on a play-to-play basis, which could create problems for offenses in terms of trying to create matchups by formation.
Regardless of how they line up, Snead is likely to fall back to the pack. Corners rarely repeat seasons like his in 2022. That said, even if he is moved outside, his floor should still be high enough to make Snead a solid option in leagues starting two corners.
This situation also makes McDuffie a viable draft target. If he shifts to the slot full-time, he can be this year’s version of Snead. Another good thing about McDuffie, his late-season surge came after most fantasy leagues had wrapped up and IDP managers we no longer paying attention, so he is flying under the radar of the average IDP manager.
A major factor in last year’s struggles versus the pass was that the Chiefs rolled with three rookie corners after Fenton was lost. That is also a big part of the reason there were not more personnel changes this off-season. A pair of day-three draft picks, Jaylen Watson and Joshua Williams, picked up the slack. Between them, they saw action on 1267 snaps. There were rookie mistakes, both mental and physical, but the young duo did a lot of good things as well, enough that the coaching staff is comfortable going into the 2023 campaign with four second-year players among the six guys expected to see considerable action in the secondary. As the landscape stands now, neither Watson nor Williams is in line for fantasy relevance, but that could change if one of them lands the third corner job or there is an injury to Snead or McDuffie.
Juan Thornhill was a four-year starter at free safety, so he was not a bust. He just failed to provide the kind of game-changing production the Chiefs thought they would get from the former second-round pick. Kansas City tried again last year, selecting Bryan Cook in round two. Thornhill turned out to be more of a finesse type of player. His lack of physicality relegated him to a centerfield role, away from much of the action. That is not the case with Cook.
Cook is an interchangeable chess piece for defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. He has the speed and cover skills to work deep but was known as an enforcer for his physical play and linebackers demeanor while playing for a Cincinnati Bearcats team that went to the NCAA playoffs. He saw enough action as a rookie to get his feet wet but not enough to make much statistical impact. That will change in 2023 as he joins Justin Reid in the lineup.
In Reid and Cook, Spagnuolo has an interchangeable tandem that provides options he did not have with Thornhill in the lineup. Cook has been penciled in at free safety, but that designation means little as the two players are likely to move around with both seeing time in the box. Reid put up strong numbers as a rookie for the Texans in 2018 but has been no more than a fringe, bye-week play since 2018. He has been around long enough to show us who he is and is no more than decent depth for us. Cook, on the other hand, remains an unknown commodity with a lot of potential.
- FS Bryan Cook – Unproven with a lot of potential.
- SS Justin Reid – Decent depth in most formats.
- SS Deon Bush – No impact.
- FS Mike Edwards – Modest expectations even if he gets on the field.
- CB L'Jarius Sneed – High floor, high ceiling but not likely to repeat 2022.
- CB Trent McDuffie – Could be this year’s Snead if things fall right.
- CB Joshua Williams – Likely to share time as the third corner.
- CB Jaylen Watson – Likely to share time as the third corner.
- CB Lamar Jackson – No impact expected.
Go Deeper: See our cornerback projections here >>>
Go Deeper: See our safety projections here >>>
That does it for part one of this year’s pre-season offering. The Raiders will be up next.
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