Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 23: Carolina Panthers

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Welcome back for year 29 of the Eyes of the Guru column. Last summer, I started a new tradition with the EOTG, posting team-by-team rather than a division at a time. The goal here is to give our customers a more steady diet of information in smaller doses.

These teams have been covered so far:

Arizona | Atlanta | Baltimore | Carolina | Chicago | Cincinnati | Cleveland | Denver | Detroit | Green Bay | Houston | Indianapolis | Jacksonville | Kansas City | Las Vegas | LA Chargers | LA Rams | Minnesota | New Orleans | Pittsburgh | San Francisco | Seattle | Tennessee

There is another step in the evolution of the column this year as well. I have talked about the need for positional realignment among edge defenders and interior defensive linemen for several years now, and the True Position format has finally arrived. Not every league host site has come to see the light, but many have. The rest are eventually sure to follow.

Going forward, I will be treating and labeling all edge defenders as defensive ends. This will include 4-3 defensive ends, 3-4 outside linebackers, and anyone else in the new hybrid schemes of today's NFL that makes a living by chasing quarterbacks off the edge. Likewise, the defensive tackle position will include all interior defensive linemen in 4-3 schemes and all down linemen in 3-4 alignments. As a result of this approach, we have eliminated the constant arguments and flip-flopping of positions among these players.

For reference, when mentioning where players finished in the rankings last season, my model will be the standard Footballguys scoring system. This is the basic stuff:

• Tackles = 1.5
• Assists = .75
• Sacks = 4
• Forced fumbles = 3
• Fumble recoveries = 3
• Interceptions = 4
• Passes defended = 1.5
• Touchdowns = 6

When tackle numbers are mentioned, solo stops and assists are generally not lumped together. Unless there is a reference one way or the other, tackles refer to solo stops. When talking about the total number of takeaways for a player, I am counting interceptions, fumble recoveries, and fumbles forced since all of these are scored very similarly in most leagues. Keep in mind that based on scoring systems, rankings will vary (sometimes greatly) from league to league.

From time to time, the rookie corner rule will be referenced. For those who are new to IDP or the EOTG, the rookie corner rule is the basic fact that in the NFL, starting a rookie on the corner is like throwing chum to the sharks. Offensive coordinators will target young and inexperienced players as weaknesses. Thus, these guys have an accelerated number of opportunities. Often these players are the cream of the crop at the position (which is why they are starting so soon), and their numbers will begin to drop steadily after their rookie seasons.

Overview

The Panthers’ defense was not bad in 2022, it just wasn’t good. We could look at all the stats and rankings, but none of that is very relevant now. The organization elected to address the shortcomings by hiring Ejiro Evero to take over as coordinator.

Evero is one of the rising young talents in the coaching ranks. Having worked under coaches like Jim Harbaugh in San Francisco and Dom Capers in Green Bay, Evero’s background is in 3-4 defenses. He was the defensive passing game coordinator for the Rams when they won the Superbowl after the 2021 season and led the Broncos to a top ten in total defense as their coordinator last year. Denver let Evero out of his contract after last season so he could pursue a head coaching job. That didn’t pan out, so here he is, taking the reins for the Panthers.

Evero brings an aggressive, attacking approach and a scheme that might not take as much transition time as the usual move from a 4-3 to a 3-4. There were a fair number of holdovers on the roster with 3-4 experience and a few more with skill sets that might fit the new scheme better than the old. Between that and a couple of solid free-agent additions, Carolina might play better defense than many expect in 2023.

Defensive Linemen

Going both ways, the transition between 4-3 defensive end and 3-4 edge has ruined some careers and enhanced others. Some pass rushers use the low starting point of the three-point stance (4-3) to gain an advantage in leverage, while others prefer the expanded field of vision that comes with a two-point stance (3-4). Many of the responsibilities are the same between the two schemes, but there are some differences. The big one is coverage duties. Guys with their hands on the ground are rarely asked to drop in coverage, while 3-4 edge defenders will sometime have to cover the flat or even short crossing routes so others can blitz.

In Brian Burns, the Panthers have an edge defender that should transition well. He was a first-round pick by Carolina in 2019, which happens to be the year that Ron Rivera and company made a botched effort to switch to a 3-4. Thus, Burns was selected with the 3-4 in mind. He is light for a 4-3 end, but at six foot five and 250 pounds, has the perfect stature for a stand-up edge.

It will be hard for Burns to top last year’s numbers of 35-28-12, especially in the first year of the scheme, but ultimately, this could be a great move for him. Burns is entering his fifth NFL season but just turned 25 in April, so he has plenty of time left to prosper if things go well.

There is no clear leader for the starting edge job opposite Burns. There are three candidates with a realistic shot. Yetur Gross-Matos was a second-round pick of the Panthers in 2020. He has eight and a half career sacks and has started some games over his three seasons, so Gross-Matos can’t be called a complete bust, but the production has not been good for a player that came with high expectations.

Working from a two-point stance could be just what Gross-Matos needs. He will not see as many double teams and will have more space to use the quickness and athleticism that helped him excel at Penn State. Including college, he has little or no experience in a 3-4, but the move might be a career saver for Gross-Matos. It’s sure not going to hurt.

The other veteran option is Marquis Haynes. A 2018 fourth-round pick by Carolina, he was not on the field much until 2020, but over the last three seasons, Haynes has become a big part of the rotation. He has twelve career sacks, including a personal best of five in 2022.

Even for the 3-4 edge position, Haynes is a flyweight, checking in at 235 pounds. The scheme change will allow him to get some distance from the offensive tackle, where speed and quickness will make him a much harder target for offensive tackles.

The third player with his name in the hat is third-round rookie D.J. Johnson out of Oregon. Johnson helped himself by testing well at the combine. In college, he was able to use power to overwhelm blockers and drive into the backfield. At the NFL level, that is much more difficult to do. He will have to expand both his move arsenal and technique, but Johnson has the physical skill set and drive to eventually get there.

Johnson needs to develop, but he has two advantages that could get him on the field early. He played the edge in Oregon’s 3-4 as a senior, and he was picked for the position because the current coaching staff believes he will fit.

Derrick Brown has not played in any three-man fronts since being selected seventh overall in 2020, but he has a skill set that is not scheme dependent. At six foot five and 320 pounds, he is an anchor along the front three, no matter what the call. Brown can work at either nose tackle or five-technique with equal success. He has six sacks in three seasons, but there is not much wiggle to his pass rush. Instead, he relies on power and explosiveness to push the pocket.

Brown can not be expected to put up more than two or three sacks, but that does not kill his IDP value. He makes a lot of plays in the running game and has a knack for knocking down passes. Between the 67 tackles (31 solo) and seven swatted passes he totaled, Brown was the number 17 inside defensive lineman in 2022. He should manage numbers that make him at least a solid DT2 again in the new scheme, and there is a little upside If Coach Evero can awaken the pass rush in him.

Carolina has a pair of good veteran journeymen in Henry Anderson and DeShawn Williams, that will contribute at the outside tackle spots. They have both played in three-man fronts and will have a short learning curve. Anderson had a somewhat productive season with the Jets when he was 23-13-7 in 2018, but that has been a career outlier for the eight-year veteran.

Williams is a more interesting prospect. He comes over from Denver, where he played under Coach Evero last year, and has the advantage of a year in the system. Williams put up the best numbers of his young NFL career in 2022, totaling 21-16-4.5 and knocking down 3 passes. Entering year five, he has shown no signs of an impending breakout but could provide solid depth in leagues starting two interior linemen.

Shy Tuttle, Bravion Roy, and Taylor Stallworth make up the rest of the interior linemen that are likely to see action. Tuttle comes over from the Saints, where he was a starter last year. He has a shot to make the lineup at nose tackle if the coaching staff wants to play Brown at one of the outside tackle spots.

• Edge Brian Burns – Low DE2 floor with top ten upside
• Edge Yetur Gross-Matos – Deep sleeper to keep an eye on
• Edge Marquis Haynes – Marginal value at best
• Edge D.J. Johnson – Possible dynasty target
• Edge Amare Barno – No impact expected
• DT Derrick Brown – Quality DT2 with a little upside
• DT Henry Anderson – No impact expected
• DT Shy Tuttle – No impact expected
• DT Bravvion Roy – No impact
• DT DeShawn Williams – Depth with low DT2 upside
• DT Taylor Stallworth – No impact

Linebackers

The Panthers have been without great play at the linebacker positions since the retirement of Luke Kueckly. That is not going to change in 2023, but the position is not a weakness. Shaq Thompson is a good veteran player that provides consistency for the team. He doesn’t make many splash plays but is dependable against both run and pass.

Thompson’s skill set should fit well in the 3-4. Coincidently, the best statistical production of his career came in 2019 when the team used three-man fronts as their base defense. That season Thompson was 75-33-3 with three pass breakups. Last year’s numbers were a close second at 77-58-0 with four passes defended. The tackles numbers are enough to make Thompson a good, high-floor LB4, but there is nothing in his game to suggest upside beyond a decent LB3

Frankie Luvu was a pleasant surprise for both the Panthers and IDP managers in 2022. After spending four seasons coming off the bench and seeing spot duty as the third linebacker, he was promoted to starter last season and made a strong impression.

Luvu missed a couple of games, so his overall tackle numbers of 76 solos and 35 assists do not accurately represent his full value. With average production in those games, his totals would have been more like 86 and 40. Luvu accounted for two turnovers with seven sacks and four pass breakups, while his average of 12.6 points per game ranked twelfth among linebackers.

What we can not ignore when considering how to value these two linebackers is the production levels of the inside linebacker under Coach Evero in Denver last year. Alex Singleton racked up 164 stops with 100 solos, while Josey Jewell average an impressive 14.6 points per game. There is no way to be sure at this stage, but I believe we will see Thompson in the Singleton role and Luvu playing the part of Jewell.

Last year’s fourth-round pick, Brandon Smith, and veteran free agent addition, Kamu Grugier-Hill, provide the depth at inside linebacker. Smith is loaded with physical talent, but a lack of fundamentals and a missing nasty streak hurt his draft stock. If he ever lives up to his physical potential, Smith can be one heck of a player.

Grugier-Hill provides experienced veteran depth. If forced into action, he can be productive as an in-season addition.

• ILB Shaq Thompson – LB4 floor with high LB3 upside
• ILB Frankie Luvu – Strong LB2 with low LB1 upside
• ILB Kamu Grugier-Hill – Injury pickup is one of the starters go down
• ILB Brandon Smith – Watchlist player with a lot of talent but a long way to go

Defensive Backs

The Panthers' front seven is relatively easy to project. The secondary, and especially the safety positions, are more difficult. In Jeremy Chinn, Vonn Bell, Xavier Woods, and Eric Rowe, Carolina has four starting quality NFL safeties, yet that didn’t stop them from drafting another player at the position in fifth-round pick Jammie Robinson out of Florida State.

While it is not the MO of their new coordinator to roll with three safeties all of the time, that has been the norm for the Panthers in recent years. With the goal always being to get the best players on the field, Coach Evero will have to adapt.

The Panthers picked Jeremy Chinn in round two of the 2020 draft. At six foot three and 220 pounds, Chinn is a safety in the body of a linebacker, with the speed and cover skills of a corner. As a rookie, he was moved all around the defense, seeing snaps everywhere from edge rusher to deep safety with a lot of playing time in the box. That season Chinn was an IDP sensation. With 116 tackles (70 solo), a sack, 5 turnovers, and a score, Chinn was the fantasy game’s number two defensive back.

Year two is when the head-scratching decisions started. Chinn missed one game as a rookie, yet entering his second season, the coaching staff decided it was more important to keep him healthy than to win games. So they moved their star playmaker to free safety to lessen the physical toll. That worked in terms of Chinn not missing time but it also killed his ability to produce game-changing plays. After four or five games, he was back in the do-everything role and returned to IDP prominence. Chinn Finished strong, falling below eight fantasy points just twice over the last thirteen games, but the damage to his overall numbers was done, leaving him outside the top 20 in 2021.

We can blame Chinn’s low overall numbers from last year on the seven games he missed, but even when healthy, he was inconsistent in the tackle columns and virtually absent from the splash play categories. His average of slightly over ten points per game ranked 24^th among defensive backs.

At age 25, Chinn is in the prime of his career and is a candidate for huge IDP value. Without knowing how the roles will be divided, however, drafting him as more than a high-upside DB2 is a risk.

With the addition of Vonn Bell the Panthers landed a prototypical NFL strong safety. He is more than adequate in coverage, but Bell’s strongest contributions and best production have come as a box safety with an emphasis on run support. His tackle totals have never been eye-catching, but before last season, he had at least 61 solo stops and 83 combined for six consecutive years. What adds significantly to Bell’s IDP value is his knack for separating the ball from the runner. Over seven seasons as a pro, Bell has accumulated 6 interceptions, forced 15 fumbles, recovered 11, and sacked the quarterback 9 times.

Xavier Woods has been a free safety for his entire seven years in the league. He does a fine job in the center-field role, but the responsibilities of the free safety position keep him out of the play too often. As a result, Woods’ only significant IDP value came in 2021 when he was with the Vikings. That season he finished at 72-36-1 with five turnovers and ten passes defended, for a rank of sixth among defensive backs. To date, that remains the only top-30 finish of his career.

Eric Rowe started a lot of games over his four years with the Dolphins. As a former corner, he played both free and strong safety during his time there, working mostly at strong over the last two seasons. Rowe is a solid - if unspectacular - NFL starter but is likely the fourth man in this conversation. It would be a shock for him to start over any of the other three, but he could see some sub-package duties while being the next man up in the event of an injury.

Looking at this situation logically, Woods is a pure free safety, and Bell is clearly best suited to play strong. That frees up Chinn to be that rover-type slot defender that moves around to exploit matchups. Providing the current coaching regime is not afraid to take full advantage of his versatile skill set, Chinn could see a role similar to the one he held as a rookie. Which could, in turn, make a return to the top ten possible, if not probable. There is a lot of speculation in that statement, though.

Jammie Robinson is a tough player with a nose for the ball and a feisty demeanor, but unless there are a lot of injuries, 2023 will be a learning year as he is buried on the depth chart.

In veteran Donte Jackson and 2021 first-round pick Jaycee Horn, the Panthers have a pair of quality pass defenders that complement one another well. Horn is the bigger and more physical of the two, allowing him to match up well with opponents' bigger receivers. Jackson is a small but scrappy corner with the range and speed to stick with blazing-fast deep threats. His lack of size can create mismatches at times, especially on third downs when opponents are looking to move the chains.

Jackson totaled 72 tackles (62 solo) as a rookie, adding five turnovers and nine pass breakups to finish among the fantasy game’s top twelve corners in 2018. Since that time, he has been a complete non-factor for IDP managers. Horn missed most of his rookie season and four more in 2022, but even when healthy, he has not shown much statistical prowess. Neither of these corners should be on our draft boards.

With the excess numbers at safety, chances are good that one of those guys will fill the nickel role. Corners C.J. Henderson and Keith Taylor should compete for the role of dime corner and the right to take over if Horn or Jackson are injured.

• SS Jeremy Chinn – Target as a priority DB2 based on the risk, with top five upside
• FS Xavier Woods – Marginal fantasy impact
• SS Vonn Bell – Low DB4 floor with high DB3 ceiling
• SS Eric Rowe – Injury sleeper with limited potential
• SS Sam Franklin Jr. – Good player but buried on the depth chart
• SS Jammie Robinson – Developmental rookie with possible long-term value
• CB Donte Jackson – Marginal at best
• CB Jaycee Horn – No impact expected
• CB C.J. Henderson Jr. – No impact
• CB Keith Taylor Jr. – No impact
• CB Stanley Thomas-Oliver III – No impact

That does it for Part 23. The Buccaneers are coming soon.

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