Is Todd Gurley Too Far Gone?

Photo: Dale Zanine, USA Today Sports

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THREE REASONS TODD GURLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A STARTING FANTASY RUNNING BACK

1. Todd Gurley’s knee condition is chronic and will likely shorten his career, but he has still got something left in the tank.

2. Last year's Rams offense was not ideal for Gurley, yet he logged a top-12 finish. The Falcons offense accentuates what Gurley does well and is likely to propel him to a better result.

3. There is virtually no competition on the roster, making him a true feature back in a time when they are scarce.

SUMMARY

Todd Gurley is criminally undervalued at his current average draft position. It is easy to attribute Gurley’s struggles last year to the declining condition of his knee. What is harder to do is look beyond the box score to see that Gurley was still a very effective runner and put up a valiant effort in a flailing offense. When one considers that he will have a top-ten offensive line, a more experienced quarterback with which to work, and less competition for work, it is a no-brainer to make selecting him a priority in fantasy drafts.

GOODBYE, GURLEY

Entering 2019, expectations for Todd Gurley were at an all-time low, even though he finished as a top-3 fantasy back in 2018. However, there were some good reasons for fantasy general managers to question whether Gurley could reproduce elite numbers in 2019, let alone ever again. He suffered a knee injury in Week 1 of the 2018 NFL season that worsened throughout the season. He aggravated the knee again in November against the Chiefs and ultimately missed Week 16; which is the fantasy championship week for most leagues. That left an indelible sting on fantasy managers who relied on Gurley to make the title game but ended up falling short of the crown. Gurley returned to play but looked like a shell of his former self in a Super Bowl loss of the New England Patriots. In the offseason, news surfaced that Gurley was dealing with a chronic knee condition that he had managed since his college days. The Rams also drafted Darrell Henderson with an early day-two pick in the 2019 Draft, convincing many that Gurley’s usage would plummet.

A lot of fantasy analysts took Gurley off their boards in 2019, while others argued he was among the best ADP values. The end result was somewhere in between. While his burst and change of direction were back, the coaches carefully managed -- if not limited -- his touches. The Rams offense, on the whole, regressed in 2019. The loss of tackle Roger Saffold in free agency did not help, but neither did injuries to starters Rob Havenstein, Brian Allen, and Joseph Noteboom. By Week 10 of the season, Andrew Whitworth was the only original starter remaining in the lineup. Despite this adversity, Gurley finished as RB12 in point-per-reception (PPR) formats.

• 223 carries
• 857 rushing yards
• 3.8 yards per rush
• 12 rushing touchdowns
• 49 targets
• 31 receptions
• 207 receiving yards
• 2 receiving touchdowns

Then something shocking happened. The salary cap-strapped Rams decided to cut Gurley in the 2020 offseason. He quickly signed a one-year, $5.5 million contract with Atlanta, who had just jettisoned DeVonta Freeman. The question is, can Gurley be more effective in Freeman’s old role? Will Gurley prove to be as injury-prone and ineffective as Freeman? Or will Gurley show the world that given the right fit in the right situation, he can still be a valuable fantasy asset?

GURLEY STILL HAS THE GOODS

As our very own Matt Waldman detailed in one of his Top 10 articles, Gurley came back last year and did not look limited in terms of his burst, power, or ability to cut. Chronic, arthritic knee conditions may shorten careers, but Todd Gurley is not ready to hang up his cleats yet. In an interview with NFL.com, he stated, "Nothing is [given]. I don't care if you have 10 Pro Bowls or one Pro Bowl," he said. "You got to go in and work, that's just how the game goes. Obviously, I'll be able to come in and help those guys out but like I said [I'm going to] play my role, it's whatever the team needs me to do at the end of the day. I know what I bring to the table, [I'm going to] come in, [I'm going to] work hard and help out the running back and they're going to help me out as well."

GEORGIA ON HIS MIND

The Rams were clearly limiting Gurley’s workload, but his decreased touch and target totals and scoring correlate with the overall inefficiency of the offense. As was detailed above, the offensive line was in tatters due to injuries and free agency departures. Jared Goff and his entire offense slumped given a lack of protection. To blame Gurley for ineffectiveness while operating in those conditions is of questionable logic. That he finished RB12 behind a completely different offensive line that switched from a zone to gap blocking scheme mid-year is a testament to his adaptability.

In Atlanta, Gurley has more favorable conditions. The Falcon's offensive line ranks eighth, according to Footballguys offensive line analyst Matt Bitonti. It is also arguable that Matt Ryan is a better quarterback than Jared Goff at this stage in his career. Schematically, the Falcons tend to throw more to the running back position than McVay's schemes generally do. The Falcons running backs were targeted 112 times in 2019 compared to just 62 for the Rams. In fantasy football, even small details like this one can matter in terms of selecting one player over another and gaining an advantage.

ALONE IN ATLANTA

Another great thing about Gurley’s landing spot is that he comparatively has no competition on the depth chart. Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson formed a dreaded three-headed committee with Gurley in Los Angeles as the team worked to limit his workload. Brian Hill, Quadre Ollison, and Ito Smith are limited players, and it's harder to justify pulling Gurley off the field in their favor. Barring another veteran addition, Todd Gurley should revert to being an every-down, featured back again.

FINAL THOUGHTS

When one separates perception of the hive mind and Gurley’s unceremonious departure from Los Angeles from his capabilities, lack of competition, and fit in Atlanta’s offensive system, it is clear that he can still be one of the better starting fantasy options this year. Expecting a top-3 fantasy finish is too optimistic, but a top-10 finish is well within reach. Gurley’s current ADP in the third round of fantasy drafts is an absolute steal. Expect his draft position to trend up as the summer wears on.

2020 PROJECTIONS

OTHER VIEWPOINTS

Jeff Radcliffe of PFF reasons that Todd Gurley will be a top-15 running back in fantasy football:

“As far as landing spots go, the Falcons are about as good as gets for Gurley. He joins a potent offense with minimal competition for touches. Better yet, Atlanta fared much better in run blocking than the Rams last season, grading out as the league’s No. 11 unit. There’s certainly some optimism here for fantasy purposes, but we also can’t overlook Gurley’s injury concerns — along with the fact that he has logged 1,483 touches over the last five years. Given the situation, it’s fair to view Gurley as a top-15 running back, which would likely position him as a third-round pick in 2020 fantasy drafts.”

Sports Illustrated’s Matt De Lima views Gurley as a large risk:

“For me, I'm not taking him in the first two rounds without lots and lots of hyperbolic positive hype from the media and lovingly serenaded offseason coachspeak from the entire Falcons coaching staff. I could be dead wrong because there's no denying Gurley's talent when healthy. I just do not have faith in his knees to keep him healthy, which is a shame because he's been a special talent. He should go meet up with Frank Gore this offseason and see what he's sprinkling in his coffee every morning.”

Rishi Patel at Rotoballer warns readers that Todd Gurley is a boom-bust option:

“Overall, considering his recent injury history, Gurley may not be the top pick in drafts like he was the past several years. Because it’s unknown how much he will be hampered by any potential injury re-aggravations (hopefully not at all), his fantasy value takes a hit due to reliability concerns. Still, Gurley should at least be considered a low RB1 or high RB2 given his extremely high potential. Therefore, he should be considered more of a top-10 or top-15 fantasy RB in redraft leagues with a massive boom or bust potential.”

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