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The Top 10: Week 2

Matt Waldman opens his film notebook and examines the emerging stars, rebound candidates, and concerns from Week 1.  

By Matt Waldman
September 9, 2019
The Top 10: Week 2
Photo: Kirthmon F. Dozier, USA Today Sports

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BALANCING REALITIES OF FANTASY WITH THE FANTASIES OF REAL FOOTBALL MEDIA

Because the football season has far fewer games than other popular American sports, analysts commonly emphasize the week-to-week urgency that each NFL organization must feel compared to other professional teams.

While this is true, the difference is still relative. As with any situation in life, the best decision-making involves acting when necessary, but knowing when action is an overreaction. Because fans and media buy and sell the storylines and revel in the drama, we're prone to overreacting.

Many of Week 1's outcomes require a quick decision without all of the information that we'll eventually see as the season unfolds. This is the reality of fantasy football.

However, there are at least 1-3 teams in your league that will overreact to what happened in the season opener and they will do more harm than good to their rosters.

The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between fantasy and reality of football analysis. Football analysis—fantasy and reality—is often dramatized because there's a core belief that it's more important to entertain than to educate.

I don't live by the idea that it's better to be lucky than good. While I want to give you actionable recommendations that will help you get results, I prefer to get the process right. There will be a lot of people talking about how they were right to draft or start specific players. Many of them got the right result but with the wrong process.

Much of Week 2's Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy).

As always I recommend Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece which you'll find available on this page, Monday night. Bloom and I are not always going to agree on players—he errs more often towards players who flash elite athletic ability and I err more towards players who are more technically skilled and assignment-sound.

Straight, No Chaser: Week 1 Cliff's Notes

The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the following points:

  1. The Rams fed Todd Gurley as if this was his preseason dress rehearsal. There are lingering questions long-term, but he looked fine. Malcolm Brown should be added as a productive handcuff.
  2. Sammy Watkins is as healthy as we've seen him in the NFL and he'll be the Chiefs' primary receiver until Tyreek Hill returns to the field and a productive 1-B option afterward.
  3. The Dolphins defense is bad, but it tempers less of the Ravens' offensive performance than many will believe.
  4. The Cardinals offense—run and pass—had highs and lows and this will likely remain the case for at least a month.
  5. T.J. Hockenson is fantasy ready.
  6. Week 1 concerns about David Montgomery's burst are more reactionary than analytical.
  7. As I wrote two weeks ago, A.J. Brown was underrated in fantasy drafts and he's far more advanced than characterized.
  8. Ronald Jones is worth a patient investment because athletically, he's elite but conceptually still up and down.
  9. Various thoughts on bigger names drafted in the top half of fantasy drafts:
    1. Baker Mayfield has a problem with specific types of pressure and the offensive line could be a short-term problem. Still, he's in sync with Odell Beckham.
    2. Stephon Gilmore's coverage of JuJu Smith-Schuster was enough to influence Ben Roethlisberger to go elsewhere and his other options failed him. This is a bad sign for Smith-Schuster and if Seattle has success holding Smith-Schuster in check, you may want to take action.
    3. Cam Newton's throwing motion is inconsistent and impacting his accuracy.
    4. Delaine Walker, Greg Olsen, and Cooper Kupp look healthy and capable of strong production.
    5. Jacoby Brissett was effective in the short and intermediate ranges of the field but he and his teammates were uneven in the red zone.
  10. Players and units who performed poorly in Week 1:
    1. Jameis Winston
    2. O.J. Howard
    3. Jimmy Garoppolo
    4. Falcons offensive line and defensive line
    5. Donte Moncrief

For those of you who wish to learn the why's, the details are below.

1. should We panic over Todd Gurley's usage?

This will be one of the most debated topics of the week—if not the next 2-3 weeks. Gurley earned 97 yards to Malcolm Brown's 53 against the Panthers. Although Gurley out-touched Brown 15-11, the division of labor was a 60/40 split and Brown earned the red zone duty that resulted in two rushing touchdowns.

Will Brown remain the red-zone option and continue earning a 40-percent share of the workload? Is Gurley a declining player?

In 2017, Gurley earned 78.8 percent of the running back carries for the team. Gurley earned 69.9 percent of the running back carries last year despite only accumulating 25 percent of the running back workload between Weeks 14-17 due to injury.

Before Gurley's Week 11 injury last year, he and Brown had two games where they earned a similar split in workload: Week 2 in a 34-0 win against the Cardinals (Gurley 22 - Brown 12) and a 39-10 victory over the 49ers (Gurley 19 - Brown 14). Similar to those two games, the Rams had a solid lead (13 points) on the Panthers for most of the first three quarters.

The argument in favor of Gurley moving forward is that he didn't see any preseason game action and the Rams were cautious about easing him back with a lighter workload. The dissenting opinion is that Brown earned the red-zone duty and Rams have intended all along to lighten Gurley's in-season volume. After all, Brown only earned 18 red zone carries during the previous two seasons and he touched the ball in this area 5 times on Sunday.

The best answer for Gurley's 2019 outlook is to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. If you drafted Gurley, then you believe he can stay healthy and he'll still perform effectively. Therefore, we'll eliminate the prospect of a season-ending injury from the equation because that's every player's worst case.

The true worst-case for those invested in Gurley is that his skills have deteriorated due to arthritis and the Rams are desperately hoping to wring out every last drop from the sponge that will help them. It's a scenario that will unintentionally lead fantasy players down a nightmarish rabbit hole where they're strung along by the hope that Gurley will earn enough touches for high-end RB2/low-end RB1 production while ceding just enough to other backs that will keep him outside the elite tier of backs when instead, that never happens and Gurley winds up a glorified flex, at best.

Based on the game against a Panthers defense that allowed the seventh-least fantasy points against opposing running backs last year, Gurley looks more like a star shaking off the rust than a player in rapid decline. Gurley displayed burst, power, and enough cutting ability that there was only one play where I wondered if a younger Gurley would have been able to re-accelerate in a similar situation.

At the same time, Malcolm Brown should have always been on your preseason radar and he'll make a strong handcuff with weekly flex-play potential throughout the season with a healthy Gurley and RB1 upside if Gurley gets hurt.

As a worst-case projection, let's say Gurley earns a 60/40 split with Brown, which would be a decrease from Gurley's previous McVay workloads closer to 80 percent. Based on Gurley's 2017 season of 279 carries and 64 receptions, Gurley would see his touch-count drop to 212 carries and 44 receptions. Let's assign a high, medium, and low projection based on this touch-count.

  • High (4.9 yards per carry and 11 yards per catch): 1,039 rushing yards and 484 passing yards.
  • Median (4.4 yards per carry and 9.5 yards per catch): 933 rushing yards and 418 passing yards.
  • Low (3.9 yards per carry and 8 yards per catch): 827 rushing yards and 352 passing yards.
We can also assign high, medium, and low touchdown totals. I'm using 21 as the high mark, 14 as the median, and 7 as the low point. My worst-case for Gurley is 203.9 fantasy points in PPR leagues—15th among running backs last year.
If that's my worst-case and Gurley just earned the 22nd-most fantasy points of the week against last year's seventh-best defense against fantasy runners and Brown earned both touchdowns, then I'm not as worried about Gurley as some. After all, this projection as the 15th-best fantasy back is based on 3.9 yards per carry, 8 yards per catch, and Brown earning 40 percent of the workload.
Gurley just earned 6.9 yards per carry against a good defense this weekend and with no preseason warmups.

I'm not panicking. However, I would buy low if you can get Gurley as an RB2 or RB3 value to a panicked competitor.

2. Sammy Watkins is as healthy as we've seen him since Clemson

Since May, Watkins and the Chiefs' training staff have claimed that they've figured out the source of Watkins' ailments and have re-trained his body. Andy Reid commented on Watkins physical shape in minicamp and we haven't seen an injury-related issue for Watkins the entire offseason.

Watkins put on a show this weekend against a Jaguars defense that didn't have to contend with Tyreek Hill for much of game. Watkins was my top wide receiver prospect ahead of Odell Beckham (No.2) and Mike Evans (No.3) in the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. At Clemson, Watkins was a versatile football player with excellent skill as a ballcarrier, underrated route running, and physicality at the catch point.

We've seen signs of Watkins' prowess throughout his NFL career but rarely has he put it all together until now. This touchdown is a lightning-quick transition upfield that includes two violent cuts that will test any player with ailing feet. Watkins's feet look great here.

Jalen Ramsay is one of the most physical corners in the league and Watkins has no problem taking the attack to the defender in the red zone—an area of the field where Watkins led the Rams as a receiver during his one season in Los Angeles.

The ball-carrying skill is absolutely back and I'm not even going to show you the long reception up the seam where he's wide-open for the easiest score of the afternoon.

And remember, Watkins was a burner in Buffalo with Tyrod Taylor throwing haymakers while still dealing with injuries. When healthy, Watkins has been a bigger, more physical, and slower player in the versatile mold of Tyreek Hill.

Many may still disagree, but the best receiver in the 2014 draft finally got healthy this year. If I'm right, he'll be the WR1-A or WR1-B in the most potent offense in the NFL. It all depends on how long Tyreek Hill is on the shelf. Congratulations if you landed him because this won't be his only big weekend.

3. Only temper Lamar Jackson and the Ravens Offensive fireworks A bit

We all know that the Miami Dolphins are an NFL wasteland Tanking for Tua (Tagovailoa). Even so, Reshad Jones, Xavien Howard, Bobby McCain, and Eric Rowe isn't a bad secondary. Jones and Howard and Pro Bowl talents, and McCain has performed well as a slot defender. It's why you'd be wise not to discount Lamar Jackson...again.

Yes, again, because many of you will when you look at the box score on the surface. However, I'm hoping that more of you will eventually come to your senses and realize that for the past three years Jackson has demonstrably shown that he is not Michael Vick but more on his way to becoming a more mobile and far more pocket-savvy DeShaun Watson.

Like Vick, Jackson can win big this his speed and agility as a ball carrier. Unlike Jackson, Vick could not hang in the pocket with control and precision for most of his career. Like Watson, Jackson lacks accuracy on perimeter timing routes but both read progressions well and deliver with accuracy in the middle of the field as well as targets that allow for them to place air under the ball.

We'll see more of this on display as the level of competition increases. This weekend, let's appreciate Jackson's deep accuracy, manipulation of his opponent, and his improvisational prowess as a passer.

The quick-hitter to Marquise Brown in the montage of clips above was notable to me because I noticed the cornerback flip his hips to the outside at the beginning of Brown's route and wondered if this was an error or a coached technique. My friend Michael Crawford wonders the same thing.

This is an important point because we're going to see well-coached teams struggle to react fast enough to Baltimore's speed. This includes Miles Boykin whose acceleration and change-of-direction quickness is also elite for a wide receiver.

This rookie tandem renders Willie Snead, Chris Moore, and Seth Roberts into excellent depth and open the field for Mark Andrews and Hayden Hurst. The breakaway threat that Jackson poses also creates mismatches for the ground game. Mark Ingram earned the easiest 100 yards we may have seen in a while thanks to Jackson taking away a defender and the strength of this Ravens' line to do the rest. Gus Edwards and Justice Hill also rotated in and out of the lineup with success.

The rest of the season won't be this easy for the Ravens, but Baltimore's athletic, quick-hitting, and physical offense will continue to generate physical mismatches, force mental breakdowns, and earn big plays.

4. The Cardinals offense will be a rollercoaster for (at least) this month

This segment is a double-feature of Kyler Murray and David Johnson. Because Murray's play influences the run game, we'll begin with him.

For most of the Lions' game, we saw Murray handle the NFL like a rookie out of his depth with intermittent moments of skill. Like most rookie quarterbacks, Murray is at his best when he can get rid of the ball fast, the line gives him time (way more than the average amount of time for an NFL play) to scan the entire field and still have a comfortable pocket to deliver downfield, or when he can climb a clean lane from edge pressure and throw the ball in rhythm.

Murray did all three of these things this weekend.

Overall, Murray was good enough to move the offense between the 20s but his work inside the 20s revealed his inexperience, immaturity, and longstanding issues as a young quarterback.

Murray must develop better feel in the pocket and for his passing lanes and improve his game management under pressure, in the red zone, and backed up in his own territory. These are the areas where young quarterbacks are most likely to let their games deteriorate into "hero ball" where they attempt to do too much and make big mistakes.

Even so, Murray found Fitzgerald on a pair of long throws, hit David Johnson for a 27-yard touchdown pass up the seam, and routinely connected wth rookie KeeSean Johnson on intermediate timing routes on the perimeter. It was enough for a 308-yard, 2-touchdown performance against a pretty good Lions defense.

Baltimore, Carolina, and Seattle each have better units, so I can't tell you that this will be Murray's shakiest outing. All three defenses will test Murray with various forms of pressure, especially in the middle of the pocket where Murray strugglest the most.

My suggestion: If Murray is mostly "down" in September, he'll earn a solid slate of games between Weeks 5 and 11 where he should prove useful, if not valuable. It's probably the best time to trade him if you're inclined to do so.

Murray's legs and Kliff Kingsbury's scheming promised improvement for David Johnson. The reality of Week 1 were mixed results. Statistically, Johnson earned a respectable 82 yards on 18 carries and when you attach 6 catches for 55 yards and receiving touchdown, Johnson had the sixth-best PPR effort of the day for running backs.

The best work the Cardinals did on the ground came on plays where Kingbury's scheme leveraged the threat of Murray's legs and the potential for a receiver to touch the ball behind the line of scrimmage.

Then the Cardinals employed gap scheme runs and didn't send a receiver in motion before the snap to distract the defense, Arizona's results were modest. The pulling linemen had trouble reaching their assignments and the pinning linemen had difficulty sustaining blocks. As a result, Johnson had to avoid front-side (pulling failures) and backside (pinning failures) defenders on several runs of this type.

If Kingsbury is the adaptable offensive wizard as he's touted, expect to see the scheme rid itself of its worst-performing plays and expand on its best wrinkles by Week 3. If he's merely the average, but slightly overrated whiz kid then this will happen Week 5. And if he's the average NFL coach—an overrated coach who rode the coattails of a scheme or co-worker's innovations and is out of his depth as a manager of people and processes—he'll make some adjustments heading into Year Two.

Either way, it's good to see that Kingsbury is splitting Johnson outside and targeting him as well as using him up the seam on intermediate routes. I also liked that Arizona used alignments that forced the opponent to split a linebacker wide and leave only one in the box. If that linebacker was not across from Johnson, the Cardinals sent Johnson into wide-open space.

You should remain optimistic about Johnson this year—even with a tough three weeks ahead that could temporarily depress his value.

5. T.J. Hockenson is Fantasy-Ready

I made a bold prediction before Week 1 that Hockenson would earn the best fantasy production for a rookie tight end since Mike Ditka—earning at least 850 yards and 7 touchdowns. After a 131-yard debut that included a touchdown, Hockenson looks the part of an emerging force in the Lions' offense.

It's clear that Hockenson was a major part of the gameplan as a receiver from three different positions—in-line from a three-point stance, the slot, and as an H-Back offset the line:

Run blocker, pass protector, and receiver, Hockenson did it all—and I didn't show you how he worked his way open for a touchdown reception on a scramble drill. The Lions are matching up Hockenson against linebackers and safeties and he's winning against both.

Based on this weekend's game plan, it might be more accurate to say that Jesse James is splitting time with Hockenson rather than the other way around. Hockenson is the clear No.1 tight end when framing the discussion from the perspective of who plays the in-line position in two-tight end sets. If we're talking about which tight end will have the most significant outcome in the passing game it's already Hockenson and it's no contest.

As with most rookies, expect some weeks where his production falls silent, but not enough to let him slip through your fingers. The Chargers and Eagles were among the better teams at limiting fantasy tight end production last year but without Derwin James in Los Angeles, that could be a difference in favor of Hockenson in Week 2. In Week4, the Lions face a Chiefs defense that allowed the most points to tight ends last year.

The Lions know what they have in him, they're scheming him like a weapon, and he's producing when called upon. The only thing he didn't do this weekend: snare a difficult target that Stafford shouldn't have thrown.

6. Don't trash David Montgomery just yet

It was inevitable that fantasy analysts would sound the alarm over Montgomery sooner than later. Montgomery lacks top-end speed, which gives many fans and writers itchy trigger fingers to cast doubt about the rookie whenever they see plays where he's not breaking into open space.

After all, good runs only occur when runners break into open space well past the line of scrimmage. The problem with running back analysis today, which wrote about here and here, is that it's way too results-oriented for its own good and not nearly enough process-oriented.

It's what got you guys into trouble when trashing the value of Jordan Howard and James Conner and writing off Todd Gurley after 2016, LeSean McCoy in 2016-17, and Adrian Peterson in 2018. We could go as far back as Ray Rice's first year when the venerable Greg Cosell told me that he feared Rice wasn't fast enough to become a good starter in the league after Rice's first season.

Young runners often play too slow or too fast when first acclimating to the NFL game. After one week, Montgomery didn't look tentative or frenetic. In fact, I thought he played well considering the circumstances.

In fact, I liked how the Bears featured Montgomery on the same play Matt Nagy used two years ago in the Chiefs-Patriots opener to free Kareem Hunt up the seam.

If Mitchell Trubisky throws this a little better, Montgomery's adjustment would have made it easier for him to transition downhill and earn a lot more in the Packers' secondary. I didn't see plays that fit the characterization that Montgomery was making a lot of defender miss while wearing concrete shoes. This may ultimately prove true but based on the play calls and the defense, I thought Montgomery's process was strong in scenarios where results would have been difficult to come by for any runner.

7. I told you To Take A.J. Brown Late

I broached it during my Top 10 Dress Rehearsal and I listed Brown before that on my 2019 All-Gut Check Sleeper Team. I bet I gave him at least a B+ in my Tiers And Confidence Ratings before that. Each time I bet I invoked Odell Beckham as the example of a big-time rookie receiver who missed most of his training camp only to perform to his draft stock's reputation.

Well, here we are as A.J. Brown beats Denzel Ward (who is playing the under on this play so not quite as impressive as if it were simply a one-on-one play) and the safety (more impressive because he's manipulating the safety while keeping Ward in his tail lights...) for a long gain.

If that wasn't enough, Brown demonstrates the short-area quickness of a slot receiver at the beginning of his route and ends the play like a 220-pound running back with a library of jukes.

Remember Anquan Boldin? Remember when he earned 101 catches for 1,377 yards and 8 touchdowns as a rookie? Remember when he fell in the draft because he didn't run a fast 40-time?

Brown ran a 4.49-second 40-yard dash. Don't get him confused with Boldin. As a frame of reference, Marvin Jones ran a 4.46-second, 40-yard dash.

Don't worry about Adam Humphries or Tajae Sharpe. You don't even need to worry about Corey Davis—unless you picked Corey Davis. A.J. Brown will benefit from Davis and Delanie Walker this year. Next year, those guys may benefit from him.

He beat an over-under bracket against Denzel Ward on Sunday. Charles Davis said Brown looked like the best receiver on the field for the Titans in May.

Brown probably won't come close to matching Boldin's rookie production, but I'm banking on 800-900 yards and 4-6 scores. Good enough for Brown to earn consideration for your roster and weekly production as his usage increases—and it will.

8. Ronald Jones Is Worth an investment of your patience

Jones got bigger, stronger, and (allegedly) faster this offseason. Despite the wows heard round the NFL fanbase from Buccaneers training camp, Jones was not consistent enough to beat Peyton Barber.

As one of the few football writers who appreciate Barber's skills, I get it. Barber runs with patience and creativity. Jones has lacked the high-end subtlety of a good starting running back. Even with several of the good runs he had yesterday against the 49ers, Jones was mostly "smash-bang-zoom."

Still, there was one run in this mix above where Jones exhibited a flash of finesse and subtlety that will hopefully germinate further refinement as the season progresses. Fans and many fantasy writers will say after this week, "Jones is clearly the better running back, start him over Barber!"

False. Jones is clearly the better athlete with more big-play ability embedded in his game. However, if Jones continues developing his craft, the false statement may eventually change into a true one. Either way, expect Jones to continue earning more touches as Barber gradually earns less. The only thing that will stop this trajectory is if Jones loses confidence and falls into a pattern of mistakes that cost this offense.

9. Quick Hitters: Week 1

This week's column could be the Top 100 and we'd still have players that were underserved. In the spirit of covering more than what 1-2 players per segment offers otherwise, here are some brief thoughts about players I watched this week who might have otherwise earned a segment at different time and place.

Baker Mayfield

The Baker Mayfield-Odell Beckham connection looked strong and that's a great sign. However, even before the Browns lost two left tackles and were down to five offensive linemen—most of them playing out of position during the second half of the game—Mayfield's specific pocket issue reared its ugly head.

Mayfield is a good young quarterback, but the desire to crown him as the potential rival of Patrick Mahomes II in order to generate a lucrative rivalry for the NFL is hasty. If I were to bet on it, I'd say Mayfield gets closer this year but there will be flaws to manage and address. If the line play doesn't get fixed by the end of the month, Mayfield could be a minor fantasy disappointment and bears close monitoring.

Delanie Walker

Walker looked quick against the Browns and played as physical as he always has.

He also told my friend Turron Davenport what the Titans thought of the Browns—and Walker is simply stating the words that a veteran would state when witnessing hype without cohesion or a portfolio of work.

With this run game, the red-zone skills of Brown on quick-hitting passes, and the 50/50 prowess of Davis, Walker should earn some excellent play-action looks on a regular basis. The Titans found him with two on Sunday. Old tight ends with route skills are usually a fantasy bargain.

LeSean McCoy

He already plays faster than Damien Williams behind the line of scrimmage and he had a week of practice with his new team.

The downhill cut was excellent and he nearly outran the deep safety on this play. Again, refer to my bold predictions. McCoy will begin in a committee but he's the best bet of the three to finish as the feature back.

Cam Newton's Throwing Motion Is The Only Impediment for Greg Olsen

Olsen looks healthy. Newton's release looks strange at times, but his velocity has returned. If the accuracy regains consistency, the Panthers will be in great shape.

Cooper Kupp Looks Healthy

This route tells me enough about his change of direction.

JuJu Smith-Schuster Fantasy Panic at DEFCON 3

I expressed concerns about Smith-Schuster's production potential after Antonio Brown left Pittsburgh because he's a similar hybrid slot player as Michael Thomas, who saw his production dip in four games down the stretch when teams bracketed the Saints receiver. Patriots Stephon Gillmore is a physical cornerback but not a top shutdown option.

The fact that Gillmore's work was enough to dissuade Ben Roethlisberger from targeting Smith-Schuster for most of the game should be a concern because the Patriots didn't even need to bracket the star receiver except during one trip to the red zone late in the game. The fact that the Steelers' receivers also failed to step up also encourages more attention for Smith-Schuster in future weeks.

If Smith-Schuster does not rebound and we don't see signs of life from the rest of Pittsburgh's receiving corps, we may be at DEFCON 2 or DEFCON 1 sooner than we thinking.

10. FRESH FISH: Week 1

Fantasy football is a cruel place. We're always searching for that weakest link. While we don't want anyone facing the wrath of Hadley, we'd love nothing more than having our players face an opponent whose game has come unglued on the field.

In the spirit of "The Shawshank Redemption," I provide my weekly shortlist of players and/or units that could have you chanting "fresh fish" when your roster draws the match-up.

Special of the Week: Jake Matthews and the Falcons Offensive Line

Matthews gave up three sacks—two to spin moves by Everson Griffen—and the Falcons could not find answers to the Vikings blitz packages. The result was four sacks of Matt Ryan, a pair of interceptions, and this confusing assignment decision from Dirk Koetter and company.

Let's move onto additional specimens from the fish market:

  • CB Isaiah Oliver: Atlanta's first-time starter will get tested weekly. He gave up a touchdown to Adam Thielen this week.
  • Donte Moncrief: He dropped a fourth-quarter target in the end zone and had two drops in three quarters.
  • O.J. Howard: He gave up a pressure to D.J. Ford, fumbled a reception away, and let a target through his hands that was intercepted.
  • Jameis Winston: His mind is still playing at a reckless and frenetic pace and two of his three interceptions were awful decisions.

Good luck next week!

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