Each fantasy position is its own ecosystem of value. Format plays a part as does unique scoring. However, navigating a draft (or trade value environment) ultimately comes down to players, tiers, and where are the key zones to exploit the best values. Here is a look at the 2020 running back landscape, highlighting the key players and tier breaks:
*Using the Wide Receiver Consensus values available as of publication*
Other Positions:
Strategy 1: The Perfect Storm
The perfect storm or combination for wide receivers to insulate their floor and provide a quality probability of a high ceiling is a sturdy WR1 depth chart placement plus a pairing with an above-average quarterback.
Qualifiers (Optimal Target WR1)
Ideal Values
Any of the above are sturdy WR1 fantasy anchors with Evans and Cooper the notable options likely available in Round 2 or even Round 3, allowing for drafters to start with a running back or even another WR1 on the list with Evans or Cooper as their enviable WR2.
Strategy 2: Trust the Talent or the Situation
There is plenty of WR1 potential from this collection of receivers. However, the risk is either with the lack of an extended track record of production with the receiver or a question mark with the level of offense and/or quarterback play. Ideally, these are targets as a WR2 or better yet a WR3 for fantasy draft builds.
Trust the Talent
- Odell Beckham (will the Browns rebound? Perennial top-10 option previous to 2019)
- Chris Godwin (quality player, but high competition for targets and coming off regression-worthy high-efficiency 2019 breakout, WR3+ floor if targets and efficiency sag a moderate amount)
- D.J. Moore (on a higher-level career track to-date, but a new system and new quarterback - who is a low-upside historical option - cloud a potential impact season)
- Adam Thielen (could be worthy of the Perfect Storm tier)
- JuJu Smith-Schuster (phenom in college and early on in NFL, lost 2019 with Ben Roethlisberger gone and some question mark on target distribution with Diontae Johnson and James Washington taking steps forward and Eric Ebron added)
- Allen Robinson (yet to have a trustworthy quarterback pairing, yet still a strong producer throughout career, high target floor and if quarterback play is even average there is a top-10 upside)
- A.J. Brown (breakout late-season run in 2019 on shoulders of Ryan Tannehill historic stretch, will that continue on a lower volume offense?)
- Keenan Allen (historically strong producer but Philip Rivers being gone is a major question mark for all Chargers targets with Tyrod Taylor and Justin Herbert notable quarterback variables)
- T.Y. Hilton (lost in the shuffle for 2020 to some degree after a down 2019, Philip Rivers marks a quality upgrade at quarterback and Hilton has a track record of production, sneaky WR1 fantasy potential here)
- A.J. Green (with a missed 2019, Green is a major variable returning from injury, but the track record is unquestioned, Joe Burrow is a variable at quarterback, but even average quarterback play puts Green in the top-12 conversation)
Trust the Situation
- Cooper Kupp (quality system, down 2019, but not overt target challengers outside of Kupp and Woods)
- Robert Woods (quality system, down 2019, but not overt target challengers outside of Kupp and Woods)
- Kenny Golladay (trust Matthew Stafford and Golladay as the WR1, but still yet to join elite tier production-wise and on touchdown regression list to shed a few scores in 2020)
- Terry McLaurin (an overall lack of competition for targets is an insulating factor for McLaurin after a promising rookie season, Dwayne Haskins is a still-developing variable under center as Washington could have a bottom-10 quarterback situation to limit McLaurin's upside)
Ideal Values
Allen Robinson (Round 3-4), Keenan Allen (Round 4-5), Robert Woods (Round 4-5), and A.J. Green (Round 5-6) are some of the best values overall of the entire position for 2020 drafts. They are easily accessible as WR2/3 types for roster construction and all have simple storylines to hit as top-12 options with a top-30 expected floor.
Strategy 3: Shoot for the Moon
This collection has plenty of downside, hence the reduced draft price point compared to the above tiers. However, hitting from the mid-rounds with a weekly auto-starter, even if for part of the season, is a massive boost for fantasy teams. Here are the most interesting options and storylines inside of the threshold line:
- DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett (could be WR1a and WR1b roles in Seattle, both have top-15 upside and a floor in the WR30-40 range and paired with Russell Wilson)
- Brandin Cooks, Will Fuller (both are priced outside the top-30 receivers but look to step up with DeAndre Hopkins gone from Houston and Deshaun Watson a play-extender at the highest level)
- DeVante Parker (finally broke out in 2019 and Miami did not notably add competition for targets, will quarterback play be helpful or a limitation?)
- Michael Gallup (2019 breakout and many are projecting rookie CeeDee Lamb to easily overtake Gallup in 2020, but what if Gallup holds off Lamb? There is top-20 upside here on one of the best passing games in the NFL)
Ideal Values
Brandin Cooks (Round 7-8) and Will Fuller (Round 7-8) is a quality pairing as if either is out of the lineup, the other is a prime WR1 bet considering the lack of competition for targets otherwise on the depth chart. Either can be a cheap WR3 or more ideally WR4 on a fantasy depth chart.
Strategy4: The Deep Dive
The later-rounds are optimized with more selections at running back, sliding quarterbacks (after waiting at the position) and starting tight ends, but here are the optimal plays at wide receiver beyond the first 9-10 rounds:
- Justin Jefferson (Stefon Diggs out, Jefferson in for the easily accessible WR2 role in Minnesota, possible highest producing rookie receiver in 2020)
- Emmanuel Sanders (New Orleans has been starved for WR2 stability in recent years, Sanders a sturdy veteran with new life paired with Drew Brees and an optimized passing attack)
- Jalen Reagor (question marks all over Eagles wide receiver corps, Reagor adds an explosive element with elite metric profile as a prospect, pairs well with Carson Wentz's playmaking)
- Mecole Hardman (big-play maven as a rookie, snap spike is the biggest variable to turn into WR2+ for fantasy terms)
- Sammy Watkins (the annual 'this could be the year' Watkins dialogue, could be an early-season cut if Mecole Hardman overtakes Watkins in utility, but also perfect storm element of Watkins being an elite upside play for flex consideration to win a few fantasy matchups)
- NKeal Harry (near redshirt rookie season, but elite profile and Round 1 pedigree on a relatively wide-open New England passing game sans Tom Brady)
- Brandon Aiyuk (Deebo Samuel injury is a monitor situation for early in the season and Aiyuk in a similar mold to excel after-the-catch in an optimized Kyle Shanahan system)
- John Ross (finally showing signs in 2019 as a former top-10 pick, Joe Burrow factor could elevate the tide of Cincinnati offense in a best case)
- Devin Funchess (undercovered this offseason amidst Green Bay drafting other offensive positions is the Funchess' signing and the lack of competition for the WR2/3 spots in the offense. Funchess lost 2019 due to injury but does have a WR25(ish) peak season to his credit and could be a touchdown maven paired with Aaron Rogers)
Ideal Values
Justin Jefferson (Round 10, WR40-50), Jalen Reagor (Round 11-12, WR45-55), Mecole Hardman (Round 11-12, WR45-55), Brandon Aiyuk (Round 11-13, WR55+), Devin Funchess (Round 20+, WR80+)
