Each fantasy position is its own ecosystem of value. Format plays a part as does unique scoring. However, navigating a draft (or trade value environment) ultimately comes down to players, tiers, and where are the key zones to exploit the best values. Here is a look at the 2020 quarterback landscape, highlighting the key players and tier breaks:
*Using the Quarterback Consensus values available as of publication*
Strategy 1: The Big 13
In start-1QB formats, there is a minimal incentive in 2020 (as is the case in most seasons) to jump early at the position. Yes, Patrick Mahomes II hit No.1 overall quarterback stature in 2018 with a breakout season. Lamar Jackson set records with his rushing performance (plus a historically high passing touchdown rate) to fuel his No.1 overall finish in 2019. However, looking beyond the opening handful of names still shows quality upside and floor combinations like:
- Russell Wilson: Four top-6 finishes in his career and top-8 each of the last three seasons
- Tom Brady: Elite Tampa Bay weapons, 17 top-12 seasons, including seven as a top-6 performer through 20 seasons
- Matt Ryan: Eight top-12 seasons, including two QB2 overall seasons over the past four years
- Drew Brees: 14 seasons in the top-12 over the last 15 years, including 12 in the top-6. Weapons all return for 2020 plus Emmanuel Sanders added
- Carson Wentz: QB5 and QB7 adjusted PPG seasons already on his profile through four years, added Jalen Reagor and DeSean Jackson returning from injury in 2020
- Aaron Rodgers: Top-10 PPG the past two seasons and seven total years in the top-6
- Matthew Stafford: QB5 in PPG at the time of his mid-season injury in 2019, returning all notable weapons, plus D'Andre Swift added, six top-12 seasons in his career
Tier Strategy-Favorite Values
The names above are the bottom of the Big 13, meaning a drafter can wait until most, if not all of the other teams have their starting option and still have some subset of the above available as options, making it a clear line in the sand to easier leverage in a 2020 draft setting. All have top-5 upside with Tom Brady and Carson Wentz seeing the most notable weapons upgrades compared to their 2019 iterations. In start-1QB formats, it is easy to play a game of chicken at the position, waiting until at least 7-8 options are gone before even looking at a quarterback. This year that zone could be 10-12 quarterbacks with Wentz-Rodgers-Stafford being a likely worst case of subset options available.
Strategy 2: The Veterans of the Next 10
Outside the QB13 (Matthew Stafford zone at the time of publication) threshold is an amalgam of young unproven ones and older proven entities with some level of stink on their profiles either due to age, a changing situation, or a poor 2019 season. Here are the veterans over the next 10 consensus spots to maximize draft equity if waiting in a 1QB format or especially in Superflex dynamics:
- Jared Goff: Three finishes inside of the top-12 over the past three seasons and yet his positional consensus is lower than his recent finishes. Brandin Cooks is gone, as is Todd Gurley, but Cam Akers, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and two quality tight ends remain. Goff still enjoys a fantasy-friendly Sean McVay system and a quality profile over a three-year sample on which to lean.
- Ben Roethlisberger: Missing almost all of the 2019 season (and the poor Steelers passing game showing in his absence) leave a stink on Roethlisberger's fantasy draft stock for 2020. However, Roethlisberger was QB9 and QB3 the two previous seasons and has a promising trio of young receivers, plus Eric Ebron added to the tight end group.
- Kirk Cousins: Losing Stefon Diggs is a negative this offseason, but Justin Jefferson was added in Round 1 and Irv Smith looks to take a step forward within the Vikings' 2-TE system as a more consistent weapon. Cousins has five straight seasons as a top-15 finisher including two top-6 peak years.
- Philip Rivers: The weapons are an overall downgrade through the air moving from the Chargers to the Colts for 2020. But Rivers has been an optimizer of his weapons over the years with 11 top-12 finishes over his 14 seasons and 2019 notably his lowest finish (QB17) over the past seven years. Rivers' consensus positional rank is below even is lowest career finish (QB20).
Tier Strategy-Favorite Values
These veterans offer two functions within a draft strategy. First, a drafter can wait even beyond the Big 13 tier where some teams will already have a second quarterback rostered. This is optimal in a more shallow 1QB format to save a roster spot and use the waiver wire as a de facto bench for the position. Second, a veteran-young quarterback committee can be built with one of the quartet as the veteran component.
Strategy 3: The Thread-the-Needle Tier
Beyond Philip Rivers enters the relative unknowns for 2020 expectations. With the mantra of quarterbacks centering around 'take the proven assets for consistent profits', this tier is all about getting the most bang for your buck within the relative unproven.
- Teddy Bridgewater: New opportunity in Carolina with the revamped coaching staff. Bridgewater was a lackluster QB2 during his Minnesota time (pre-injury) and has yet to approach top-12 for much of a season.
- Gardner Minshew: A low-QB2 finish in 2019 but Jacksonville has one of the lowest Vegas win totals in the NFL and questions around their offense from WR2 through the tight end.
- Sam Darnold: A breakout darling in some cross-sections of the fantasy community, but back-to-back QB24-30 finishes and the weapons are, at best, marginally better in 2020.
- Tua Tagovailoa: Ryan Fitzpatrick offers a better upside proposition than Tagovailoa in 2020 specifically as Fitzpatrick was a mid-QB2 with QB1 moments a year ago with the same supporting cast returning for Miami globally on offense.
- Derek Carr: 2020 is a huge opportunity for Carr with likely improved weapons on the outside especially (Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards drafted in the top-100), Jason Witten added, and Lynn Bowden as an offensive weapon. Carr has heat behind him with Marcus Mariota as a relevant signing. The good news? Unlike many in this tier, Carr has a top-10 finish to his career profile.
- Justin Herbert: Along with Tyrod Taylor, the Chargers quarterback position looks like a low-upside bet in 2020 despite the weapons around them. Herbert (and Taylor to some degree) offer rushing upside to salvage something in the QB2-level of production but passing-wise this could easily be a bottom-8 position.
- Dwayne Haskins: There are positive signs with Haskins coming out of Washington with the second-year quarterback shedding weight and being proactive with sessions with his passing game weapons. However, Haskins was a fantasy afterthought in his stint under center as a rookie and the team did little to boost his weapons. The best offensive position is easily the running backs for Washington which could point to a run-centric offense if utilizing their (hopefully) healthy backs like breakout candidate Derrius Guice, Adrian Peterson, Bryce Love (another health status to monitor) and 2020 rookie and offensive weapon from Day 2 Antonio Gibson.
- Jarrett Stidham: The Patriots have put a ton of faith in developing Stidham as low-upside veteran Brian Hoyer is the only other notable quarterback on the roster. The team passed on other veteran opportunities to add to the position as well as in the NFL Draft. The weapons beyond Julian Edelman and entering Year 2 N'Keal Harry are poor compared to recent New England iterations. This could be an audition year for Stidham with the macro view and plan to boost quarterback in 2021 with a veteran or Round 1 selection.
- Mitchell Trubisky: The Bears offer little at the quarterback position with Trubisky on a Blake Bortles-like trajectory downward after efficiency and rushing-infused QB15 finish in 2018. Nick Foles' magic moments in Philadelphia have been mixed with pedestrian-at-best play throughout his career. Both Trubisky and Foles could see five or more starts this season in a committee. The biggest fantasy value at stake is either starter maintaining the value of Allen Robinson as their go-to passing game weapon. Robinson has yet to see a consistent higher-level of quarterback play in his career so, sadly, Robinson is used to this type of situation.
Tier Strategy-Favorite Values
Derek Carr has the best profile of this group with an MVP-level season at his career peak. Of the young guns, Justin Herbert is intriguing for his rushing upside alone and all the weapons on the Chargers offense. However, Herbert is not locked in as a Week 1 starter and would require having excess roster spots to hold him until he is firmly under center. Even in Superflex formats, there is significant risk counting on any of this tier as a team's QB2.
