Eliminator Pool: Week 17

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Dave Larkin’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so once again this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two - the Footballguys' staff "Against the Spread Pool Challenge". Multiple staff members (19) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.

Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.

Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest with two preseason articles. The first one that describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:

Survivor Pool Strategy

The second article is rather interesting, which describes Jeff’s preseason plan to get all the way through 17 weeks. Will it work? We are about to find out.

I Will Survive

This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

The staff is finishing strong on the season, but not everyone escaped Week 16 without suffering a loss. Three of the staff took another loss with Seattle's surprising loss to Arizona, while a Pittsburgh loss gave one more loss for the group. Those four missteps bring the total losses for the staff to 62 this year, or roughly a 13-3 or 12-4 record. That makes Sean Settle's nearly perfect 15-1 for the season all the more impressive. One more win gives the outright title to Sean, while both Dave Larkin and Jeff Haseley must hope to get Week 17 right along with a second loss for Sean Settle. Game theory, anyone? Clearly both Dave and Jeff should be picking a team that Sean has already used so that they have a chance to go 1-0 while Sean loses one more time. One more entertaining week to go!

THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY

Here are the picks for this week:

DISCUSSION

Week 17- the final week of the season - is never an easy one for Survivor and Eliminator pools. Some teams have clinched all they can and are taking the week off, while others are ready to pack their bags and call it a season. Finding a team with actual motivation and that is also still avialable after 16 weeks of picks is a challenge to say the least. New Orleans, Green Bay, Dallas, Kansas City, New England and the Rams are the teams favored by a touchdown or more this week, but odds are good that all six have been used (if not, lucky you and fire away). Oakland and Tennessee are the most likely unused picks for the final week, and who does not like to go down swinging with a team in a near-"win and in" situation as the Raiders and Titans have for this Sunday? I for one cannot wait to see how the picks come in for the group, especially at the top of the standings.

Thursday Morning Update: Well, the picks are in for the final week of the year, and they are truly all over the place. No less than 10 teams were chosen by the group, and only the Titans (four picks) were selected more than twice by the staff. Indianapolis, New England, New Orleans, and Pittsburgh all received two votes each, while Buffalo, Green Bay, Houston, Tampa Bay, and the Rams all earned one pick. That makes the Titans-Texans game the first time all year that a true head-to-head amongst the group was chosen. The top three in the staff all have three different picks as Sean Settle has the Bills, Dave Larkin the Rams and Jeff Haseley has the Titans. One more week to go to determine the season winner.

Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor / Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator / Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.

COMMENTARY

Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article.

Jeff Pasquino: It is the end of a long season, and I thank you all for reading this column. Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, and Happy New Year to one and all. Now, for my pick this week, Tennessee has to win to get in, while the Texans could easily treat their matchup as a bye week. The schedule makers did the Titans a huge favor by putting this game in the late (4:25 Eastern) time slot, because by the time this game kicks off, Houston may have nothing to play for. Wins by New England and Kansas City lock the Texans into the fourth seed, and frankly, the Texans may want Tennessee in the postseason as they could win next week in Kansas City and then the Titans - not Houston - would go to Baltimore the following weekend. Think about that for a minute. Both the Titans and Texans want Tennessee to win this week. Sign me up!

The Pick: Tennessee Titans

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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