The NFL has done a magnificent job of turning their enterprise into a 365-day-a-year reality show. We go from the Super Bowl to the Scouting Combine, to the free-agent signing period, to the NFL Draft, to mini-camps and OTAs, to training camp, to exhibition season, to the regular season, to the postseason, to the Super Bowl.
It's the sports world's version of the circle of life.
And we're here for it.
The Footballguys 2024 Rookie Draft Guide is available now (you can get it for free here if you haven't already). Our Best Ball Rankings and Rookie Superflex Rankings are up and running (with more, including our Dynasty Rankings, coming). Articles are rolling in on the regular. We're following and publishing news and instant reactions as developments warrant. The Footballguys YouTube channel and podcasts are running at full speed.
We're generating pertinent analysis on all aspects of the game.
The weekly Fantasy Notebook will be part of that.
This time of year, the goal is to build a baseline of information we add to throughout the offseason. Think of it as a data continuum. We'll be plugging in pieces and comparing what's said to what happens over time, looking for differences that offer clues as to the eventual reality.
Understanding the impact of coaching changes is an essential part of the process for fantasy managers. That being the case, we'll start all these Notebooks with a look at an incoming offensive coordinator before dipping into a few other items of interest each week.
Getting Coordinated: Falcons
Let's get the ball rolling in Atlanta, where Raheem Morris, upon being introduced as the new head coach, offered up words that landed like a soothing balm on the damaged psyches of myriad fantasy managers.
As SI.com's Jonathan Alfano reported, when asked what he likes about the Falcons roster, Morris, without hesitation, named two of their best offensive weapons.
"That's real easy. Drake London, Bijan Robinson," Morris said.
Don't feel left out, Kyle Pitts investors; we all know there's work to do here.
"To see Morris not only recognize those players as stars," Alfano wrote, "but openly embrace them is certainly a nice change of pace in Atlanta."
Better still, Morris followed those words up with a supporting action as the Falcons hired Zac Robinson as his offensive coordinator.
Serving as the Rams passing game coordinator, Robinson helped oversee the club's vastly improved offense in 2023 while helping to get the most out of exciting young stars like Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams.
In addition, Robinson worked with Matthew Stafford the past three seasons and with Jared Goff during the coach's first season with the Rams in 2019.
He was an assistant wide receivers coach in 2021, when Cooper Kupp became the first player since Steve Smith Sr. to achieve the "receiving triple crown" by leading the league in receptions, receiving touchdowns, and receiving yards.
Kupp's statistical jump in 2021 came with Stafford passing for the second-most yards in a single postseason with 1,188. Moreover, Stafford became the first player in NFL history to pass for at least 6,000 yards and 50 touchdowns in the regular season and postseason combined while also leading a team to a Super Bowl in the same season.
Robinson had a hand in all of this, which, as the Falcons' official website understated, "is a plus," considering the offensive success the Falcons are searching for -- especially at the quarterback position.
To be sure, Bijan Robinson, London, and Pitts are as strong a core of skill players as you'll find in the league. But quarterback has been an area of concern for the Falcons since they traded Matt Ryan to the Indianapolis Colts in 2021, and it remains that. They tried to make it work last year without a franchise QB, hoping Desmond Ridder could grow into it. Instead, he was benched twice in favor of journeyman Taylor Heinicke.
The Falcons pick No. 8 in the 2024 NFL Draft, which is likely too low for a top-three quarterback unless they trade up. The question then would be who is willing to move and for how much?
So they could take another route.
NFL.com's Kevin Patra wrote, "It feels like owner Arthur Blank could be ready to make a splash play for that quarterback to get the club over the top. Chase Kirk Cousins. See what it would take to get Justin Fields out of Chicago. Check in on Russell Wilson when he shakes free from Denver. All would be better options than what the Falcons rolled with over the past few seasons."
(In case you missed it, Footballguy Dave Kluge made a strong case for the Bears moving on from Fields in favor of USC's Caleb Williams.)
Speaking with the media last Wednesday, Robinson made one thing clear: The team is starting to figure out the plan at quarterback, and they are open to all possibilities.
"Whether it's a pocket guy, whether it's a guy that can move around a little bit, we're just looking for the best guy that we can do," Robinson said via ESPN.com's Michael Rothstein. "Certainly know the guys that are here, we're evaluating everybody, so [Heinicke] and [Ridder], we're looking at those guys.
"All options are on the table."
Whoever they end up with, the new play caller will be the tip of the spear in maximizing that player and all the fantasy assets here.
So, let's start setting some initial expectations for the other pieces.
Bijan Robinson, the No. 8 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, showcased his sky-high potential on occasion in his rookie season, accounting for 1,463 total yards and eight touchdowns.
London, the No. 8 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, has similarly shown his potential over his first two seasons, racking up 141 receptions for 1,771 yards and six touchdowns.
Drawing a straight line from the workloads we saw Williams and Nacua benefit from in Los Angeles might be aggressive -- certainly in London's case (especially without knowing the quarterback situation).
Nacua was phenomenal, setting records for the most receptions for a rookie (105) and breaking the record for rookie receiving yardage (1,486) that dated back to 1960.
The good news?
Currently carrying a fifth-round ADP in early Underdog best balls and sitting at WR25 on the Footballguys' initial Best Ball Rankings, London is in a great position to outproduce his draft capital even if his chances of hitting Nacua's rookie totals seem slim.
Meanwhile, Williams' numbers, while impressive, offer a more realistic target for Robinson.
Williams capped off his 2023 season with 1,144 rushing yards -- third- most in the NFL and 19th all-time in Rams franchise history. More importantly, over the 12 games he appeared in last season, Williams racked up 228 carries. If his 19-carry per game average isn't impressive enough, let's narrow it down to the weeks that mattered most for fantasy managers, Weeks 13 through 17, when the second-year man averaged 23 carries per game. He added 13 catches over that five-game span, giving him an average of 25.6 touches per outing.
That was league-winning volume for fantasy managers, especially compared to Robinson's 214 carries over 17 games, which ranked 19th in the NFL.
Robinson's current ADP, he's being draft at No. 8 overall on (as reflected by his current RB3 spot in our Best Ball Rankings), will require a maximized workload to deliver return on investment. An offensive line that ranked 18th in run-blocking on Matt Bitonti's 2023 Offensive-Line Rankings adds a layer of complication.
Depending on how a given draft plays out, I'd still pay the freight on Robinson, but London's price is more appealing, even without knowing the QB.
Also, did I mention Pitts has some work to do?
Fortunately for us bargain hunters, his price reflects that. Pitts is currently TE11 in our Best Ball Rankings. His late seventh-early eighth-round pricetag on Underdog reflects that.
And there's ample reason to believe he can outperform those expectations.
As my friend Zachary Krueger of Rotoword pointed out, Pitts ranked second among tight ends (with a minimum of 50 targets) in yards per reception (12.6). He was also third in slot rate (58.5 percent) and 10th in total routes run (466) despite playing in an offense ranked 31st in neutral pass rate (49 percent).
Given all the Falcons' offensive shortcomings -- real and perceived -- under former coach Arthur Smith, a course correction is coming. Zac Robinson will be the change agent, and we'll all be watching closely in the coming weeks to see which triggerman the team partners with their new coordinator.
Other items of interest. ...
Richardson Rising
Anthony Richardson's return from the right shoulder injury that ended his rookie season in Indianapolis has taken a big step forward.
Richardson's agent, Deiric Jackson, posted a video of Richardson throwing on Tuesday.
#QB1💪🽠pic.twitter.com/2N4oaRG5yf
— deiric jackson (@djackson_legacy) February 13, 2024
Richardson is barefoot and throwing lightly, but the 2023 first-round pick appears to be on schedule in his recovery.
Even though Richardson started just four games before sustaining a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 5, the Colts came away from 2023 encouraged by their young quarterback for a few reasons. Most importantly, as general manager Chris Ballard said: "This guy is a passer."
Throughout the pre-draft process last year, the Colts believed Richardson's low completion percentage at Florida (54.7 percent) was somewhat of a mirage. They saw on his college tape good pocket presence -- his ability to navigate pressure and keep his eyes downfield -- but needed to see that translate to the NFL, where navigating rapidly collapsing, rarely-perfect pockets is a must.
Footballguy and Rookie Scouting Portfolio author Matt Waldman told us the same thing this time last year.
#NFLDraft QB Anthony Richardson (Florida) the Underrated Pocket Manager and Field General https://t.co/GDo4E41UVb pic.twitter.com/4FxINYpEhj
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) February 4, 2023
The numbers, albeit on a very narrow sample size, suggest those assessments are closer to the truth than those arguing Richardson doesn't meet NFL standards in that department.
As Michael Fabiano wrote at SI.com this week, "Richardson was on his way to fantasy stardom as a rookie, scoring 17-plus points in his first three games, including a 29.6-point performance in Week 3." His 22.1 point-per-game average through Week 4 ranked fourth among all fantasy QBs.
I expect Richardson to continue running -- and I'm eager to see him work with a healthy Jonathan Taylor (imagine the decisions defenders will have to make at the mesh point on RPOs). Still, the evidence of Indy's willingness to pass is encouraging.
Kruger stated, "In the two complete games played by Richardson (Weeks 1 and 4), the Colts had a 64.4 percent pass rate in neutral game scripts. While an admittedly small sample size, this would have been the seventh-highest neutral pass rate of any team in the league."
As Profootballtalk.com's Josh Alper pointed out this week, Richardson's progress should have him on track to do at least some work with the team this spring. That would set him up for a full workload during training camp and a return to the starting role in Week 1.
I've done five early mock drafts. Richardson has yet to make it past pick 6.12. He's gone as early as 5.1.
He currently sits at QB6 on Footballguys' Best Ball Rankings (and holds that same distinction in early Underdog drafts).
Is that too expensive?
Yes and no.
In a vacuum, I'd be reluctant to put all my eggs in the Richardson basket. But we don't live or draft in a vacuum, and I'm willing to burn an earlier-than-I'd-like pick on a player I view as a lottery ticket (and our own Sigmund Bloom sees the upside, too). I'll do this because the list of quarterbacks I'll be able to draft in double-digit rounds includes names I'd be comfortable starting any given weekend.
That list includes Stafford, Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, and Baker Mayfield, among others. ...
Early Uncertainty: An Advantage At Running Back
In Las Vegas, the big question heading into the offseason is how long Josh Jacobs will remain with the Raiders. On a related note, Fantasy Nation wants to know how long it will be before Zamir White's price skyrockets.
Jacobs, whose contract expires next month, wants to remain with the team. There's no guarantee that's how it will play out.
Playing on the one-year, $11.8 million deal agreed upon just before the start of last season, Jacobs finished with 805 rushing yards, less than half of what he produced during the 2022 campaign. He missed the Raiders' last four games with a quadriceps injury.
White shined in Jacobs' absence. The second-year man finished the 2023-24 NFL regular season with 104 carries for 451 yards and scored one touchdown, averaging 4.3 yards per carry. He was RB9 during the four-game stretch Jacobs missed as the Raiders leaned into the run.
The Raiders must decide whether to pay their veteran or roll with the younger, more cost-effective White, who will make $950,000 this year.
If you're drafting in early best balls, White is an afterthought. He's RB38 with an ADP of 128 on Underdog.
These are the kind of scenarios early drafters can make hay with. It's true we don't know how it will play out. But paying a 10th-round pick for a potential RB1 is a pretty reasonable trade-off.
The futures of Jacobs and White aren't the only free-agent-related situations you can leverage before the signing period opens.
The big-name players who will be available in free agency -- Saquon Barkley (RB8 on Underdog), Derrick Henry (RB16), Austin Ekeler (RB22), Tony Pollard (RB23), D'Andre Swift (RB29) and Devin Singletary (RB33) -- all offer varying degrees of value due to their uncertain futures.
But even greater potential value can be found later, with Zack Moss (RB49), Gus Edwards (RB54), J.K. Dobbins (RB55), Antonio Gibson (RB59), AJ Dillon (RB61), Ezekiel Elliott (RB64), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB72), Kareem Hunt (RB81), D'Onta Foreman (RB85), and Damien Harris (RB139) all on the open market and looking for new homes.
The starting prices here are pick 163 for Moss, while Harris can be had for a 20th-round pick.
These prices are all subject to change as circumstances evolve. But if you're out there roaming the best-ball mean streets this early, take some chances on players who might get surprising volume if things go their way.
Just do it responsibly by going super cheap. ...
Pay Up For The Man
As you can see, I always look for bargains at running back. But I won't hesitate to pay up for one of them -- even though the price is as steep as it gets.
I'm looking at you, Christian McCaffrey.
In his first full season with the 49ers after joining them at the trade deadline in 2022, McCaffrey led the NFL in rushing yards (1,459), yards from scrimmage (2,023), and touchdowns (21) despite sitting out the regular-season finale after San Francisco had clinched home-field advantage and a bye in the playoffs. He averaged 22.1 opportunities per game.
Those numbers were good enough to earn him NFL Offensive Player of the Year honors.
But more than all that, from a fantasy perspective, McCaffrey continued to deliver at player-and-a-half levels.
Nobody posted a better average per-game scoring average (from Weeks 1-17) than McCaffrey's 24.7.
Williams, at 21.4 per game, came closest. After that, the numbers dip. Precipitously. So much so that the point at which McCaffrey gives you player-and-a-half production is RB5.
Footballguy Ben Cummins put it nicely in his Best Ball First-Round Rankings analysis: "The 49ers and Kyle Shanahan know they have a Hall of Fame player at their disposal, and McCaffrey's usage proves it."
This is not a new development.
Similar usage in 2022 allowed him to average 22.2 PPR points per game in the 10 games after the aforementioned trade, including five outings with at least 25 PPR points.
When drafting early, I'm looking for leverage on the field. Player-and-a-half production is the leverage I'm talking about.
McCaffrey's three-down skill set in this running back-friendly offense gives him a solid claim to RB1 status and the No. 1 overall spot for 2024. ...
That's it for this week's Notebook. I'll see you here next week (or in the best-ball lobbies in the interim).
