The rise of season-long Best Ball has occurred rapidly, largely thanks to Underdog. The company has tapped into the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) minds of us fantasy football sickos by offering tournaments with huge payouts, but instead of relying on one-game randomness, allowing us to project how the entire season is going to play out.
This format on multiple platforms, including Underdog, will continue to rise in popularity in 2024. With contests and tournaments already live and drafting for next season, keep an eye on Footballguys for in-depth best-ball analysis.
For now, let's dive into first-round rankings.
1. RB Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco
I'm of the belief there should be no infallible consensus first-overall pick/ranking. Christian McCaffrey tests that theory, though. McCaffrey will only be 28 years old next season and plays in an elite offense that led the entire NFL in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play) in 2023. And McCaffrey's dual-threat talent and skillset are not amplified and discussed enough. McCaffrey is this generation's Barry Sanders and/or Marshall Faulk. Let's look at his numbers from this past season:
| Statistic | 2023 Ranking | 2023 Data |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per Route Run | 11th | 1.35 |
| Elusive Rating (PFF) | 19th | 65.5 |
| Explosive Runs (10+ Yard Runs) | 1st | 44 |
| Explosive Run Rate (10+ Yard Runs/Carries) | 5th | 16.2% |
| Designed Rushing Attempts That Went for 15+ Yards (PFF) | 1st | 20 |
| Rush Yards Over Expected per Attempt (NextGen) | 2nd | 1.32 |
| Yards After Contact per Attempt (PFF) | 7th | 3.42 |
| Missed Tackles Forced (Rushing + Receiving) per Game (PFF) | 8th | 4.1 |
No matter what statistic you look at, McCaffrey was elite in 2023. McCaffrey excels at breaking tackles, evading tackles, making big plays, achieving more yards per carry than expected, efficiency, and route running. The 49ers and Kyle Shanahan know they have a Hall of Fame player at their disposal, and McCaffrey's usage proves it. He ranked second in opportunities per game (22.2), first in total yards per game (126.4), and first in total touchdowns (21) last year.
2. WR Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati
JaMarr Chase's advanced statistics were down last season, but Joe Burrow only suited up for ten games and maybe played at close to full health in half of them. Unfortunately, 2023 was a bit of a lost season for Chase and the Bengals, especially with Burrow suffering a season-ending injury in Week 11. So Chase's statistics weren't that impressive last year, right? Wrong. Chase is so talented he still finished with 100 receptions for 1,216 yards and 7 touchdowns in just 16 games. Chase still ranked 12th in targets per game (9.3), eighth in receptions per game (6.4), 12th in receptions (100), 12th in receiving yards per game (79.8), and 12th in receiving yards (1,216).
It's important to remember how dominant Chase has been with Joe Burrow as his quarterback before last year:
| Year | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Touchdowns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 at LSU | 84 | 1,780 | 20 |
| 2021 | 81 | 1,455 | 13 |
| 2022 (In just 12 games) | 87 | 1,046 | 9 |
It's also important to remember just how elite Joe Burrow is as a pure passing quarterback:
| Year | Passing Yards | Passing Yards Rank | Passing TDs | Passing TDs Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 4,611 | 6th | 34 | 8th |
| 2022 | 4,475 | 5th | 35 | 2nd |
Fantasy football is about betting on a combination of elite talent, young ascending talent, proven production, and players in great fantasy environments. Chase, who will only be 24 years old next season, checks all the boxes paired with Burrow. He has 20+ touchdown upside, and I refuse to miss hitting on that exciting season.
3. RB Breece Hall, NY Jets
We've been buying into Breece Hall's elite talent for some time now here at Footballguys, and we don't plan on stopping anytime soon. Hall ranked as the RB8 in half-point PPR fantasy points per game (15.1) in the seven games he played before injury as a rookie and then followed that up with an RB9 finish in half-point PPR fantasy points per game (14.0) in 2023 despite being eased in at the beginning of the season just one year removed from a torn ACL. The bottom line is simple: Hall is an elite talent. Let's look at his advanced metrics through two NFL seasons:
| Statistic | 2023 Ranking (Data) | 2022 Ranking (Data) |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per Route Run | 2nd (1.76) | 2nd (2.00) |
| Elusive Rating (PFF) | 7th (88.6) | 1st (100) |
| Explosive Run Rate (10+ Yard Runs/Carries) | 49th (9%) | 3rd (19%) |
| Rush Yards Over Expected per Attempt (NextGen) | 6th (+0.67) | Did Not Qualify |
| Yards After Contact per Attempt (PFF) | 6th (3.43) | 1st (4.13) |
| Missed Tackles Forced (Rushing + Receiving) per Game (PFF) | 4th (4.5) | 18th (3.4) |
What does this data mean? Hall is elite at evading tackles, breaking tackles and gaining additional yardage, ripping off big-play runs, achieving more yards per carry than expected, and being an efficient route runner and pass catcher. He struggled to rip off those big play runs at a high clip last year but still ripped off 20 10+ yard runs in one of the worst offenses in football after Aaron Rodgers was lost for the season just a few plays into the year. Hall even improved his missed tackles forced rate in 2023 despite defenses being able to key on him due to poor Jets quarterback play. With Aaron Rodgers projected back in 2024 and Hall hopefully playing his first full NFL season at full health, the dual-threat 23-year-old will compete with McCaffrey for the RB1 overall top spot.
4. WR Tyreek Hill, Miami
Tyreek Hill will be 30 years old next season. That's the only blemish you can point to on his resume. Hill plays in one of the best offenses in the NFL as the Dolphins ranked third in both EPA/Play and Dropback EPA last season and ranked second in targets per game (10.5), third in receptions per game (7.5), and first in receiving yards per game (114.5) in 2023. Diving deeper, Hill also led the NFL in yards per route run (3.82) and targets per route run (35%), ranked second in target share (30%), and had three of the ten fastest plays with the ball in his hands (MPH) according to Next Gen Stats last year.
5. WR Justin Jefferson, Minnesota
The consensus number-one overall pick last season falls to the fifth spot. This ranking could certainly improve as the offseason goes on, but for now, Kirk Cousins is recovering from an Achilles tear and is not under contract with the Vikings for next season. We'll need clarity regarding who will be throwing Jefferson the ball before we can be any more bullish. Still, though, fantasy football is about betting on a combination of elite talent, young ascending talent, proven production, and players in great fantasy environments. The only question with Jefferson is that environment as he checks off every other box in a massive way. Jefferson missed or left early in eight games last season, but he was still his dominant self when he was out there on the field, ranking ninth in targets per game (9.6), 14th in receptions per game (6.2), third in receiving yards per game (98), and fifth in targets per route run (27%).
6. WR CeeDee Lamb, Dallas
CeeDee Lamb was an elite prospect and was a solid pro to begin his NFL career, but he vaulted himself into superstar status in 2023, catching 135 passes for 1,749 yards and 12 touchdowns. Lamb ranked second in targets per game (10.5), second in receptions per game (7.6), second in receiving yards per game (103.2), fifth in yards per route run (2.78), second in target share (30%), and third in targets per route run (28%) last year. He will be just 25 years old next season and plays in an elite fantasy environment, as the Cowboys' offense ranked second in both EPA/Play and Dropback EPA last season.
7. WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit
Ben Johnson's decision to return to Detroit for his third consecutive season as their offensive coordinator is one of the most massive storylines of the entire offseason regarding fantasy football ramifications. The Lions offense ranked 25th in points and 22nd in yards in 2021 before Johnson, and under Johnson, those ranks spiked up to 5th in points and 4th in yards in 2022 and fifth in points and third in yards in 2023. But let's not forget about the aggressive culture head coach Dan Campbell has instituted, either. Under Campbell over the past two seasons, the Lions rank fourth in the league in fourth-down aggressiveness.
The offensive environment is extremely favorable, but what about Amon-Ra St. Brown as an individual player? St. Brown has posted seasons of 90-912-6, 106-1,161-6, and 119-1,515-10 to begin his NFL career. He ranked fifth in targets per game (10.3), third in receptions per game (7.5), fifth in receiving yards per game (91.4), sixth in yards per route run (2.63), fifth in target share (29%), and fifth in targets per route run (27%) last season. There are no questions about St. Brown's game at all. He's elite. He checks off every box as a fantasy football asset and is a locked-in first-round selection in both half-PPR and full-PPR.
8. WR A.J. Brown, Philadelphia
From a pure talent perspective, A.J. Brown has a strong argument to be ranked even higher. Brown is arguably the most physically gifted receiver in the NFL today and the closest thing we've seen to Terrell Owens since Owens retired. In 2023, Brown ranked ninth in yards per route run (2.52), eighth in targets per game (9.8), sixth in receptions per game (6.6), sixth in receiving yards per game (90.4), 11th in target share (28%), and tenth in targets per route run (26%). The slight knock on Brown heading into 2024 is the offensive environment he finds himself in. Jalen Hurts is a fantasy stud, but much of his success comes on the ground at the direct expense of Brown's production. Hurts played in every game this past season and only ranked 14th in passing yards (3,858) and 13th in pass touchdowns (23). And Philadelphia's offense is in flux as they've recently made an offensive coordinator change moving on from Brian Johnson and bringing in Kellen Moore. Still, Brown allows us to confidently bet on a combination of elite talent, young ascending talent, and proven production.
9. RB Kyren Williams, LA Rams
Despite constant rumors about Sean McVay and/or Matthew Stafford walking away from the Rams, that hasn't happened yet and doesn't appear likely this offseason. We can confidently project Kyren Williams to play in one of the best offensive environments for fantasy football in 2024, as the Rams offense ranked seventh in EPA/Play last season and has been consistently productive dating back to even the Jared Goff years. That's super exciting because, boy, can Williams play. Williams led the entire NFL in opportunities per game (23), ranked third in total yards per game (112.5), and ranked third in total touchdowns (15).
Well, Williams was able to find so much success because of the offense he was in and the number of touches he was lucky enough to receive, right? Wrong. Williams is an incredible running back who ranked 11th in yards after contact per attempt (3.34), fourth in missed tackles forced (rushing + receiving) per game (4.5), eighth in explosive runs (10+ Yard Runs) (26), eighth in rush yards over expected per attempt (+0.49), and 15th in PFF Elusive Rating (69.3). What do these numbers mean? Williams is elite at evading tackles, breaking tackles to gain additional yardage, ripping off big-play runs, and achieving more yards per carry than expected.
Williams' talent won't wow you, but he was born to play the running back position and will continue to do that at a very high level for a coach in McVay who loves to utilize one workhorse running back when that player is available to him.
10. RB Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis
Jonathan Taylor's 2023 season can, in some regard, be thrown out as he dealt with a holdout and injuries. Moving forward, the Colts are financially committed to Taylor in a big way for at least the next two seasons. When an organization spends up at the running back position on an elite talent, they will play him. Period. And an elite talent is exactly what Taylor is. Let's remind everyone of the jaw-dropping production Taylor consistently put together before the past two injury-plagued years:
| Year | Total Yards | Total TDs |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 (Freshman at Wisconsin) | 2,072 | 13 |
| 2018 (Sophomore at Wisconsin) | 2,254 | 16 |
| 2019 at (Junior Wisconsin) | 2,255 | 26 |
| 2020 | 1,468 | 12 |
| 2021 | 2,171 | 20 |
And despite Taylor's struggles in 2023, the takeaway from this past season should be extremely positive and bullish because first-year head coach Shane Steichen showed plenty of promise, keeping a Colts offense afloat all season despite losing first-round franchise quarterback Anthony Richardson for the rest of the season due to a shoulder injury suffered in Week 5. Under journeyman Gardner Minshew, Steichen still managed to lead a Colts offense that finished the regular season ranked 16th in EPA/Play, 16th in Rush EPA, and 16th in Dropback EPA. A healthier Taylor, the return of Richardson, and improvement in year two of Steichen's offense all make Taylor a strong first-round selection.
11. RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit
The high-powered nature of the Ben Johnson offense was touched on earlier when discussing Amon-Ra St. Brown and the passing game. There's good news for the ground game as well.
Gibbs gets to play in an incredible offensive environment and is arguably the most talented running back in the NFL. Gibbs finished his rookie regular season ranked seventh in half-PPR fantasy points per game (14.8), sixth in explosive runs (10+ Yard Runs) (27), third in designed rushing attempts that went for 15+ Yards (PFF) (15), 16th in yards after contact per attempt (3.12), 14th in missed tackles forced (rushing + receiving) per game (3.5), 14th in PFF Elusive Grade (70.7), and 11th in Next Gen Stats rush yards over expected per attempt (+0.4). Simply put, defenders can't tackle Gibbs. He's too fast, quick, and explosive. Gibbs will only be 22 years old next season and has room for growth in one of the league's most potent offenses.
Do not overreact to the presence of David Montgomery. Montgomery is a solid running back and isn't going anywhere. Still, some elite offenses transcend the need for a workhorse running back for fantasy success to be found. Whereas Gibbs finished seventh in half-point PPR fantasy points per game, Montgomery finished right behind him in eighth (14.6). This is the new Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram backfield. Gibbs doesn't need to lead the league in touches to be a fantasy dominator.
12. WR Puka Nacua, LA Rams
Puka Nacua was a revelation in 2023. He broke the rookie receiving records for receptions and receiving yards, finishing with 105 catches for 1,486 yards and 6 touchdowns. Nacua ranked ninth in the entire league in targets per game (9.6), ninth in receptions per game (6.3), seventh in receiving yards per game (90.3), fifth in target share (29%), fifth in targets per route run (27%), eighth in yards per route run (2.59), 11th in yards after contact per reception (6.0), and 10th in Next Gen Stats' yards after catch above expectation (+2.0).
Nacua is big, strong, fast, and technical. He has no weaknesses in his game and remains paired with two of the best in Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford. McVay is one of the league's brightest offensive minds, and Stafford is the wide receiver kingmaker, having been the arm behind historic seasons for Calvin Johnson, Cooper Kupp, and now Nacua. Nacua will only be 23 years old next season and has passed 31-year-old Cooper Kupp on the depth chart. Draft Nacua with confidence. If you let the fact he was a fifth-round selection negatively skew your viewpoint of Nacua, you're the one paying the rake. The NFL gets it wrong all the time, and Nacua is the latest example. He's an elite player.
