Welcome to Week 4 of the 2023 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Notable Fantasy Starters at QB (see below)
- Emerging Player Candidates
- Week 3 vs. Weeks 1-2
- The Footballguys' Subscriber Contest
Let's roll.
Notable Fantasy Starters at QB
Matt Waldman: After three weeks, the following QBs are on the cusp of QB1/QB2 value.
Only 4.5 points separate them. Answer the following questions about this pool of passers:
- Who has the highest ceiling of value this year?
- Who has the steadiest skill set?
- Who has the lowest floor?
- Who remains inside QB1 territory at year's end?
Elucidate this matter.
Jeff Bell: Deshaun Watson has the highest ceiling of the group. We have seen elite-level production before, and with the injury to Nick Chubb, that offense has little choice but to run through him. The game against Tennessee showed encouraging signs that the rust may be coming off.
Is it a hot take or homerism to take the rookie C.J. Stroud?
Waldman: For you, homerism, but no one expects anything different from you.
Bell: I can live with that. And I can definitely live with Stroud as a starting QB.
Stroud has functional mobility to escape the pocket and enough arm talent and accuracy to hit the required throwing windows. I may have misunderstood the question, bringing Brock Purdy into the conversation. Purdy has shown high-level processing and decision-making, coming up with a year's worth of games to judge off. He lacks in some physical areas but has the best play-caller to help smooth those concerns.
Mac Jones has the lowest floor. He has the perfect combination of defense and run game capable of winning without his production and none of the residual big play by accident that Purdy is awash in.
Jones will remain outside QB1 territory at year's end. He played into trailing game scripts in his first two games to bolster his numbers. But in the long term, the Patriots can not win shootouts, and Bill Belichick is smart enough to know that. The Jets game shows their path to victory. It is not through Jones.
Zareh Kantzabedian: Stroud is currently fifth in pass attempts and eighth in yards per attempt. He's the QB14, including his debut, where he scored 9.7 fantasy points. Since then, Stroud has scored 21.5 and 20.6 fantasy points. Stroud is the QB11 if we only include those two 20-plus point games. The Texan's offense is beginning to figure itself out. Compile Strouds' weapons with his passing volume, and there is plenty of room for growth.
Purdy emits stability. He's surrounded by elite talent that will never let him down. San Francisco's defense will do enough to keep opposing offenses at bay. All Purdy has to do is get the ball to his weapons and let them do the rest.
Jones is QB12 on the year despite being third in pass attempts. Hunter Henry and Kendrick Bourne are the primary weapons. Even with the volume, the Patriots offense lacks significant explosive play-making ability. His floor is the lowest.
Stroud will be a locked-in QB1 for the rest of the year. Stroud defeated the Jaguars on the road while posting his best completion percentage this year. The Texans' coaching staff is going to let him cook. Stroud is just getting started.
Jason Wood: My highest-rated player of this quintet in the preseason was Watson, and I'll maintain that he's got the highest upside. He was one of the league's true elite signal callers in Houston, so we know he's capable of being a top-5 player, whereas I'm not sure any of the other options have that in their likely range of outcomes. However, given his volatility as a Brown, Watson's top upside doesn't necessarily make him the most likely to finish in the Top 10.
Jared Goff has the longest resume and has looked as we expected season-to-date, but my answer is Brock Purdy. The second-year player has picked up where he left off last season and is the on-field extension of Kyle Shanahan's mind. We knew Purdy was an excellent processor, and his decision-making has remained laser-sharp. The 49ers are the class of the NFC through three weeks, and the offense looks unstoppable.
Jones is the pyrite of this quarry. He's only QB15 currently and is more than 10% (on a per-game basis) behind QB12. The Patriots don't have the playmakers to sustain his fantasy value, particularly because he is almost no threat as a runner, and rushing stats are a vital component to most elite fantasy quarterbacks.
I don't know if I would bet on any of these guys being top-12 fantasy quarterbacks at year-end, but if I have to choose, it would be Watson. He still hasn't come close to his Houston Texans form, yet we know that's possible. To be pushing up against top-12 fantasy value while playing below your best is encouraging, particularly with the Browns' defense good enough to allow the Browns to have a balanced offensive game script most of the time.
Ryan Weisse: I've mentioned my love of Stroud in an earlier question, so I'll stay consistent. He is a top-12 quarterback already, and we haven't even seen a rushing upside from him yet. As he gets more comfortable, he will push past all the other names on this list.
Brock Purdy has never lost a regular season game. It hasn't always led to fantasy success, but he is good for 200 yards and two touchdowns most weeks. You might want more upside from your fantasy quarterback, but as long as they keep winning with rushing and defense, Purdy won't need to do much in the passing game.
Jones might be a top-15 quarterback on the season, but the Patriots do not feel like a top-15 offense. In fact, despite being fourth in passing attempts, they rank ninth in yards and tied for 7th in passing touchdowns. Even when he's overachieving, Mac Jones is underachieving. They are also 1-2, so I don't expect this uncharacteristic offensive scheme to last much longer.
Stroud should, for sure. Purdy can make a push, but he'll probably need some of the guys ahead of him to miss some games. Jared Goff was a top-10 guy last year and looks better so far in 2023. The only real question for me is Watson. He looked average or worse for two weeks but had a great showing in Week 3. If he can keep the rushing upside and throw like he did against the Titans, he'll keep himself in the starting conversation for most fantasy leagues.
Gary Davenport: Had you asked me who had the highest ceiling a week ago, I may have had a different answer. But last week against the Titans, we finally saw a glimpse of the Watson the Browns paid $230 million and multiple first-round draft picks for. Whether or not Watson can back that effort up and consistently play at that level and again become the quarterback he was in 2020 is another matter altogether. But there’s little question that he has the highest upside of this bunch.
The steadiest skill set is a relatively close call between Purdy and Goff, but the edge for me goes to the latter. Jared Goff is one of the more underappreciated quarterbacks in the NFL. Above-average arm talent and accuracy. Doesn’t make a ton of mistakes. Reasonably mobile. None of these quarterbacks (outside peak Watson, who may not exist anymore) can carry a team, but only one has gotten one to a Super Bowl.
Jones, without question, has the lowest floor. The only reason he’s in this conversation is a game where the Patriots had to play catch-up, and the Eagles secondary took a nap. He’s average on a good day, and the Pats will be looking to move from him next season.
Watson’s ceiling gives him the edge here where the highest finish of the bunch is concerned, but he’s been so wildly inconsistent that his top-12 chances are a crapshoot. So I’m going to go with Goff. He won’t finish the year QB6 or anything like that, but there’s a reasonable path to his ending the season in the QB9-QB11 range—as he leads the Lions to the playoffs.
William Grant: Watson has the highest ceiling of value in this group, mainly due to the season-ending injury to Nick Chubb. Yes, the Browns signed Kareem Hunt, a free agent no NFL team considered a starter. Yes, Jerome Ford stepped in and had a decent game. But neither is Chubb, and neither will put up Chubb's 6.1 YPC. The Cleveland offense will flow through Watson now, both throwing and running the ball. He has the biggest upside of the folks listed here.
Purdy is the answer to the remaining three questions. Purdy has been everything the 49ers wanted and then some. He averages almost 250 yards per game. Consistent, solid performance with zero interceptions. Most importantly - He spreads the ball around to the rockstars that the 49ers have on offense to keep defenses guessing and everyone else happy.
San Francisco has been in second gear so far this season, and they have looked great doing it. They don't need Purdy to throw for 400 yards a game, they need him to keep the offense moving. He's doing a fantastic job of that, and they have plenty of weapons to keep that flowing. Expect Purdy to put up consistent, high-floor numbers the rest of the way and sit just on the edge of that QB11-QB13 range that would make him a starter in many fantasy leagues.
Daniel Harms: Watson is the obvious answer for the passer with the highest ceiling. He’s been a top-five QB before, and whether or not he gets back to it, the ceiling is there.
Goff is as steady as they come; you know exactly what you get from Goff and Ben Johnson’s offense weekly. He’s a timing-based QB in an excellent system with a varied run game that keeps the defense off balance. He’s airing the ball downfield in Detroit as well. Goff is Mr. Consistency.
Jones has a better offensive system around him, and he’s getting more comfortable with it. But his offensive firepower is extremely lacking, and he doesn’t have the rushing ability to help accommodate that, particularly on the fantasy side.
This is risky, but I will bet on C.J. Stroud to be a top-12 fantasy QB by season's end. He’s making plays in and off script, on the move, down the field, and from the pocket. He’s doing it all and has a cupboard full of weapons at his disposal, better than most thought they were. He’s the real deal.
Waldman: If you'd like to see the rest of the topics, once again, you can find them here:
Thanks, and good luck this week!
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