The lead-up to the NFL Draft is an important time to understand the potential landing spots and the potential fallout for incoming rookies. Grindingthemocks.com compiles mock draft data throughout the pre-draft process that can be valuable in the process. Mock draft data, as well as publicly available betting lines, provide insight into when players may hear their names called and which teams may be interested in calling their names. The articles would focus on potential landing spots and the potential impact of the landing spots.
Take a similar look at potential homes for rookie quarterbacks >>>
Where does Bijan Robinson Land?
The big prize in the NFL Draft is Texas running back Bijan Robinson. Robinson is the clear RB1 in the draft class, likely the first overall pick in dynasty rookie drafts, and one of the best running backs in recent years.
According to GrindingtheMocks, Bijan Robinson has an expected draft position at 20.4.
The betting markets are more favorable, with an over/under of around 16.5. The Atlanta Falcons (20%), Dallas Cowboys (17%), Houston Texans (11%), and Los Angeles Chargers (10%) are the only teams with double-digit implied odds by draft betting markets. The Washington Commanders, New England Patriots, Philadelphia Eagles, and Detroit Lions are the next three teams around 9% implied odds.
Looking at Atlanta
The biggest player at risk for Bijan Robinson is Atlanta Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier. Atlanta has made transactions to solidify their defense in the past week, including trading for cornerback Jeff Okudah and signing edge rusher Bud Dupree. As we laid out here, Tyler Allgeier has a strong historical probability of a running back being ahead of him in the draft, which would be in line with the betting lines.
To get a sense of the market, here are some recent actual trades from MyFantasyLeague.com leagues so you can see what GMs got in return for Allgeier. Every league is different of course, but these trades in existing real leagues can give you a pretty good feel for the cost and type of trade package it might take to acquire him.
- In a Superflex PPR league
- Trade Away: Allgeier and rookie pick 2.04
- Trade For: Darren Waller
- In a Superflex PPR league
- Trade Away: Allgeier
- Trade For: Jahan Dotson and 2024 third-round rookie pick
- In a Superflex PPR league
- Trade Away: Allgeier
- Trade For: 2024 second-round rookie pick
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