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The NFL Draft can be a major threat to running backs. The lead-up to the NFL Draft is a critical time to assess risk and optimize your rosters by protecting against the risk of the NFL Draft.

Draft Threat Rate

A simple way to understand the risk players face is to understand the odds a player is drafted with a superior draft pedigree. As the draft season progresses, you can evaluate which teams are interviewing and meeting with position players. Once players begin meeting with incoming rookies, the player market may begin to move, so understanding the risks in advance is important.

The threat rate is the odds a team selects a player at the same position with a better draft pick than they spent on the rookie last season.

Players drafted high in the NFL Draft have a lower risk their team drafts another rookie with a higher draft pedigree the following year, while players with a lower pedigree have a higher risk.

2022 Draft Class

This can be a great way to evaluate the risk to incumbent the five incumbent running backs drafted in the 2022 draft: Breece Hall, Ken Walker III, James Cook, Dameon Pierce, and Tyler Allgeier.

Hall, Walker, and Cook were all selected in the second round in 2022, and only 4% of teams who selected a running back in the second round have selected a running back with a higher pick in the next season. The last time it occurred was in 2008 when Tennessee selected Chris Johnson 24th overall a year after selecting Chris Henry with the 50th pick in the 2007 draft.

This insulates Hall, Walker, and Cook, as they are unlikely to be candidates to select a running back in the draft. With their rookie season production, Hall and Walker are perceived insulated from the draft.

However, there is skepticism that Cook is an every-down running back. This has pushed Cook well into the 20s of dynasty ADP among running backs. Adding Damien Harris after the departure of former starting running Devin Singletary is a good sign. There has been skepticism about the Harris signing. In fact, more than 58% of dynasty GMs thought the transition from Singletary to Harris hurt.