Reading the Defense, Week 16

Photo: USA Today Sports

Footballguys’ “Roundtable” articles enable several writers to contribute answers to a question on fantasy gamers’ minds. The site includes several each week and numerous pieces over the summer to help readers think critically about draft strategy.

“Eleven Deep Sleepers at Tight End” offered players staff members would recommend that were typically available outside the top 150 offensive players. Jacksonville tight end Evan Engram was the most popular choice in July.

Through 15 weeks, Engram resides in fourth place among fantasy tight ends. The success of the preseason forecast does not feel worthy of a victory lap. Engram ranked 16^th after 13 weeks. Few would have sought him out before his Week-14 outburst versus Tennessee.

Engram caught 11 passes for 162 yards and 2 touchdowns. The performance that delivered 39 fantasy points amounts to 30 percent of his year-to-date fantasy production.

Billy M on Twitter Evan Engram is having the game of his life right now pic.twitter.com/YRBXNgWutt— Billy M (@BillyM_91) December 11, 2022 Billy M Twitter

A Jaguar Does It Again!

Rayshawn Jenkins entered Week 15 ranked 16^th among safeties in fantasy points. He capitalized on a plus match-up against Dallas for 39.25 fantasy points in Footballguys’ scoring system, besting his teammate, Engram by a quarter of a point. Jenkins increased his season-long point total by 33 percent and vaulted into third place on the leaderboard of fantasy safeties.

Jenkins, like Engram, was a deep sleeper before the season. His name does not appear in the 131 defenders with an average draft position on the Sleeper fantasy football platform.

Despite advantageous situations and ample opportunities, both players have underperformed for fantasy gamers for years. Engram, the former first-round pick of the Giants, has played in 45 games in the past three seasons. During that time, he has averaged just 8.7 fantasy points per game in PPR formats despite running 31.4 routes per game (calculated from PFF data).

Jenkins has played 2,636 snaps in 43 games since 2020. He lined up in the box for 47 percent of them, based on data from Pro Football Focus. His tackle rate in this span was a mediocre 9 percent per snap before his Week 15 explosion. He scored the first touchdown of his career in Week 15 and collected his fourth and fifth interceptions since 2020.

The Makings of a Good Fantasy Safety

Derwin James is one of the few players ahead of Jenkins on the leaderboard. The preseason consensus top fantasy safety remains in second in total fantasy points despite missing the past two games. James is more than just a safety. He lines up almost anywhere in the defense. He fits gaps in run defense, erases tight ends in man coverage, and rushes the passer. James isn’t the only safety with diverse deployment, but he is arguably the best at it.

Rookie Jalen Pitre leads all safeties in fantasy points through 15 weeks. The former Baylor linebacker was the Texans’ preferred choice to supplement run defense from the third level. After ten weeks, however, he and running mate Jonathan Owens effectively swapped roles. Pitre has played the tenth most snaps of any safety in the NFL, but he’s second in snaps versus the run. Pitre leads the league’s safeties in both tackles made and missed tackles. According to Pro Football Focus, 41 of Pitre’s 117 total tackles have come in run defense. Pitre and his Texans have spent a lot of time defending the run en route to their 1-12-1 record.

Ron Kopp Jr. on Twitter Houston rookie Safety Jalen Pitre was all over the place against Dallas. 2 PBUs and 10 tackles, including two 1v1 goal-line stops against ZekeFlying around, playing like the explosive play maker that made him an exciting prospect out of Baylor pic.twitter.com/ARgvhPDr48— Ron Kopp Jr. (@Ron_Kopp) December 16, 2022 Ron Kopp Jr. Twitter