Links to similar discussions on other positions:
A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. This article specifically targets deep sleeper value (players that can be found very late in a fantasy draft). In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look deeper than the Top 150 and identify players that should significantly outperform their late draft position. These players should be your targets after the 12th round of your draft.
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Here are the players who received the most votes:
And here are all of the players mentioned and the reasons why.
Player Receiving 9 Votes
Evan Engram, Jacksonville
Jeff Bell: The last offense Doug Pederson coached that did not finish with a tight end as a top-two receiver was the 2013 Chiefs, his first season as offensive coordinator. Pederson knows Engram as an old NFC East division rival. Engram’s 722 rookie yards were the ninth-highest rookie total since 1961, but he has failed to deliver on that rookie promise fully. Engram finished as a TE1 in PPG each of his first three seasons but has fallen out of those standings, hitting a career crossroads, but he has the talent and opportunity to finish top two in yards on the Jaguars. Hitting that threshold almost assures finishing as a TE1.
Sigmund Bloom: The Jaguars paid a pretty penny (9 million, only ~2 million less than the franchise tag) for Engram's services, and Doug Pederson & Press Taylor know how to use tight ends effectively from their time together in Philadelphia. Engram could show us that the reason he busted with the Giants was mostly him, but it also could have been mostly the coaching and management, and the price to have him on your roster in Week 1 to get the first big clue is very cheap for a player of his physical talent at tight end.
Tripp Brebner: Our own Nick Whalen once called Evan Engram the second-best receiver in the 2017 NFL draft. Engram failed to build on a productive rookie campaign and will play on a one-year prove-it deal in 2022. His average depth of target has been among the lowest in the league throughout his career, like that of an outlet valve rather than a receiving threat from the tight end position. The new Jaguars head coach has a track record of using his tight ends to threaten defenses downfield. Engram, meanwhile, is among the fastest receivers on Jacksonville's roster. A new cast of pass-catchers opens the door for Engram to emerge as young Trevor Lawrence's preferred target. Higher-leverage opportunities could translate to new-found heights for Evan Engram.
Kevin Coleman: Evan Engram is one of the most athletic tight ends in the NFL that has never quite had the breakout career many hoped for after his impressive rookie season with the Giants. Engram has dealt with injuries, and poor quarterback play his entire career. Fast forward to 2022, and Engram is playing on a new team with a head coach who can get the most out of him in Doug Pederson. Pederson’s features a heavy dose of “12 personnel.” During his last two seasons as a head coach, Pederson’s teams finished second and first in the league of two-tight end usage. The targets and usage will be there for Engram to smash his ADP.
Jeff Haseley: The role Evan Engram will play in Jacksonville in Doug Pederson's system could result in a 50- to 60-catch season with 700-800 yards and 5-6 touchdowns. That's not too bad considering he is going after 20 tight ends have been selected in drafts.
Andy Hicks: Evan Engram is not the only player to suffer from offensive issues on the New York Giants. Now with Jacksonville, he should be a key focus for Trevor Lawrence and the passing game under Doug Pedersen. Engram had one of the best seasons for a rookie tight end. The talent is there. If we combine that with the ability of Pedersen to use the tight end position, Engram is in a great situation to not only exceed his ADP but become a fantasy starter.
Chad Parsons: The Jaguars are one of the breakout offense possibilities this season after the Urban Meyer stink has cleared the air. Engram is on a one-year deal without a strong WR1 presence on the team. If Engram is not blocking or running five-year out routes as much as his frustrating closing years with the Giants, a return to the top-12 is firmly within the range of outcomes.
Christian Williams: Evan Engram's career has been a rollercoaster, but one thing has remained constant: targets come his way. Engram has been one of the more versatile pass-catching tight ends, consistently lining up wide or in the slot to create mismatches with defensive backs. Doug Pederson has always utilized tight ends efficiently, with his starter finishing no lower than TE6 in his first five years as head coach in Philadelphia. Engram isn't Zach Ertz, but if he can show Trevor Lawrence his hands are reliable, he certainly could continue his path of high target shares and be a steal at his ADP of TE23.
Zareh Kantzabedian: According to ADP, Evan Engram is being selected in the 15th round. Engram's opportunity cost is nowhere near the target volume I am anticipating for him in 2022. Doug Pederson is the Jacksonville Jaguars' new head coach. In five years, the Eagles under Pederson have never ranked lower than second in total team targets to tight ends. Engram's ADP will rise in the coming months but should remain a bargain towards the end of August.
Player Receiving 6 Votes
Robert Tonyan Jr, Green Bay
Sigmund Bloom: Tonyan is reportedly in the lead to be the first of the three Packers who tore an ACL last year to get back on the field, and signs point to no problem being ready for Week 1. The Packers have a vacuum in the offense created by the departure of Davante Adams, and Tonyan is one of the top candidates to benefit from it, especially in the red zone. He went for 11-148-4 in two games that Adams missed in 2020, and 3-49 in three quarters of a game Adams missed in 2021 before tearing his ACL in the late October loss to the Cardinals.
Ben Cummins: Reports regarding Robert Tonyan Jr’s ACL recovery are positive, he caught 11 touchdowns in 2020, he’s paired with the back-to-back MVP, and the Packers will need him without Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
Jordan McNamara: A cheap bet on a potential leading option for Aaron Rodgers, particularly where there is a lot of uncertainty in the offense, is a good upside bet. Tonyan had a breakout season in 2020 where he had 59 targets and 11 touchdowns before a torn ACL cut his 2021 season short. Tonyan could easily pass his career-high 59 targets in the post-Davante Adams offense.
Sam Wagman: Everyone seems to be throwing Tonyan to the side. Regression was inevitable last year after posting over a 20% touchdown rate in 2020 — 11 scores on 52 receptions. Then he not only started slow but also tore his ACL, and the season for him was over. With Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling now gone, Aaron Rodgers needs someone to trust in the passing game. It stands on Tonyan, who is on track to return by the start of the season, to pick up the slack and he has the opportunity and the ability to put up a TE1 season once again.
Matt Waldman: Okwuegbunam has TE1 upside and could emerge as such this year because of his red-zone prowess and Russell Wilson's skill with seam routes. He's a speedy player with proven NFL-caliber contested-catch skills and an underrated feel for underneath routes. Rookie option Greg Dulcich could factor early in the Denver offense as a heavily schemed speedster in the open field, but not enough for him to overtake the veteran. Okwuegbunam's blocking is far superior and this will not only keep him on the field, but it will also lead to some excellent play-action opportunities, which is a staple of Wilson's game.
Jason Wood: Tonyan's 2020 breakout was driven entirely by an absurdly high touchdown rate (11 TDs on 59 targets), which is why he was a fade last year. Those who faded him were served well as he struggled in the first half before tearing his ACL. But with Davante Adams gone, and Tonyan looking like a sure bet to be 100% for the regular season, Aaron Rodgers is going to need targets he trusts, particularly in the red zone. Tonyan is a good bet for 7+ touchdowns.
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