Week 6 is unique for a couple of reasons. First, we have arguably the most anticipated game of the season on the main slate. Buffalo and Kansas City look like the two best teams in the NFL and are the top two scoring offenses in the league. This extra attention could lead to players on these teams being even more popular than they already are in typical weeks. Second, we have some big running back injury news that is going to lead to some backup running backs that could be some of the chalkier plays we have seen all season.
The above two factors are going to lead to interesting game theory decisions for tournaments. In broadest terms, should we “fade the chalk,” or should we let others do it for us? The whole idea of chalk versus contrarian has been turned upside down to some extent in recent years. Last season, we would see a bit of an industry consensus emerge with ownership projections. Then, there would be a strange consensus that would emerge about how best to build lineups based upon those projections. So maybe Mike Evans would be projected for 30% rostered and Chris Godwin 10%, so the consensus would be that Godwin was the better strategic play. Then you would get to Sunday, and it would be Godwin at 30% and Evans at 10%. We saw this phenomenon play out week after week. There is not an easy answer here. You cannot ignore percent rostered projections altogether because getting leverage against the field by being heavier on some guys and lighter on others will always be the name of the game. On the other hand, you should be taking any projections about who will be chalk and who will be the contrarian pivot off of the chalk with a grain of salt because this is not the early days of DFS. With almost everyone thinking strategically and attempting to differentiate from the field, it does not take much for the plays predicted to be contrarian to turn into their own form of chalk.
Quarterback Positional Overview
We project Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Geno Smith, and Patrick Mahomes II to be the most popular tournament plays in Week 6. It is no coincidence that the ownership is going to concentrate around the quarterbacks from the two games with the highest Vegas totals, especially since each of the quarterbacks in question has some level of rushing upside. As noted above, the question will be how much we want to go out of our way to try to differentiate ourselves at the position by going down to poorer game environments and/or to quarterbacks with less rushing upside.
Top QB Plays
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore ($8,800)
With the matchups in Kansas City and Seattle drawing most of the attention, Jackson should fly more under the radar than normal this week. His popularity may also be down a bit because the matchup looks tough on paper. The Giants have given up just 14.4 FanDuel PPG to opposing quarterbacks this season (10th-fewest). However, the numbers are misleading given the quarterbacks faced have been Ryan Tannehill, Baker Mayfield, Cooper Rush, Justin Fields, and Aaron Rodgers. None of those guys has been playing at a level anywhere close to how well Lamar Jackson has been playing this season. Jackson put up monster numbers through the air the first three weeks but has had back-to-back down games as a passer against very good Bills and Bengals pass defenses. He should bounce back against a beatable Giants pass defense. Plus, Jackson is providing massive fantasy value as a runner. Over the last four weeks, he has averaged 89.3 rushing yards and 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game (12 FanDuel PPG just with his legs).
Jackson has put up slate-breaking 40-plus point fantasy performances in 40% of his starts so far this season. If he is going to go even slightly overlooked due to the popularity of Allen, Mahomes, and Murray, then we should make him a priority for our lineups.
Josh Allen, Buffalo ($9,200)
Allen is the most expensive quarterback on the slate and likely to be the most popular tournament play at the position. However, does it really matter? We are still probably going to want to have him in our lineups. Allen is performing at a higher level than anyone else in the league and has looked unstoppable for long stretches of games, including an incredible streak of performances dating back to the 2021 NFL playoffs.
Allen has played at Kansas City three times since January of 2021 (two playoff meetings and a regular season game in Week 5 last year). In those games, he has averaged 310.3 passing yards and 3.0 passing touchdowns. He has also added an average of 71.7 rushing yards and 0.3 rushing touchdowns per game.
Other QBs to consider:
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay ($7,500) Brady has posted back-to-back games with 350-plus passing yards and is rounding into form as he starts to get his top weapons back. Pittsburgh has allowed the fifth-most FanDuel points per game (22.1) to opposing quarterbacks. Brady has averaged 312 passing yards and 2.4 passing touchdowns per game in his career against the Steelers. He may not have the same ceiling as the top dual-threat quarterbacks, but we are getting a big enough discount here that the play makes sense and could pay off handsomely if none of the expensive guys has a big rushing game.
Kyler Murray, Arizona ($8,300) Seattle’s defense has given up over 40 points per game over the last two weeks, and this matchup has obvious shootout potential. Murray has not been as involved as a runner early this season, but that may change as things get more desperate. Arizona cannot afford to fall to 2-4, so we could see the team lean more on Murray’s rushing ability, especially with James Conner out and the running back depth chart depleted.
Geno Smith, Seattle ($7,400) Smith has quietly been one of the league’s best quarterbacks over the last three weeks. He has averaged over 25 FanDuel PPG over that stretch and led the team to a total of 80 points over the last two weeks. The Cardinals have given up the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
Running Back Positional Overview
Whereas at quarterback, most of the attention this week is on a specific pair of games. At running back, most of the attention is on the opportunity created by injuries to starters. With Damien Harris, Rashaad Penny, James Conner, and Cam Akers all out, we have some relatively affordable young running backs stepping into larger roles. Unlike some weeks when there are backups thrust into larger roles, we have good reason to believe some of these young backs have the talent to take maximize these opportunities in front of them. Rhamondre Stevenson, Ken Walker, Eno Benjamin, and Darrell Henderson are each strong point per dollar projections and great plays this week if you are not worried about how many other tournament rosters they land on. Therein lies the rub. Do we still like Rhamondre Stevenson as a tournament play if he ends up being on 30% or 40% of tournament rosters?
The advice here is to sprinkle in some of these newly promoted starters but not to go too overboard. This is a week where we have the opportunity to get some more proven commodities at lower-than-usual ownership. Players like Nick Chubb, Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook, Aaron Jones, and Christian McCaffrey are each flying more under the DFS radar than they typically do and make for nice upside bets.
Top RB Plays
Eno Benjamin, Arizona ($6,300)
With both James Conner and Darrel Williams out for the Cardinals, Eno Benjamin should step into a nearly every-down role. Late-round rookie Keaontay Ingram should serve as the top backup, and he has never taken an NFL snap. Benjamin should be heavily involved both as a runner and receiver. Even in a backup role, he has seen at least four targets in all but one game this season.
As expected - Eno Benjamin - who at least 45 yards from scrimmage & 4 targets in 4 of 5 gms this year in a crowded backfield - should get a lot of work in Sun. SEA has allowed 100+ scrimmage yards to a RB in every game this year. Benjamin is a strong mid tier RB2 start this wk https://t.co/vgSi8ZnFZ7
— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR) October 14, 2022
Seattle has allowed the second-most rushing yards to opposing running backs (131 per game). This has included big individual performances each of the last three weeks, with Cordarrelle Patterson (141 rushing yards), Jamaal Williams (108), and Alvin Kamara (103) each topping 100 rushing yards. The Seahawks have allowed 84 points in the last two weeks, and defensive players were melting down in sideline arguments. We have seen the Cardinals backs have success against this unit. In Week 17 last season, Conner and Benjamin combined for 149 total yards, 10 receptions, and 2 touchdowns (31.9 FanDuel points).
Ken Walker, Seattle ($6,500)
When backups are unexpectedly thrust into much bigger roles, some have the talent to take advantage while others do not. The exciting aspect of Walker’s ascent to the lead role is that he has massive potential. The 2021 winner of the Doak Walker Award for college football’s best running back was drafted 41st overall in the 2022 NFL Draft after running a 4.38-second forty-yard dash at the NFL combine. He has excelled in a backup role after working his way back from a core muscle injury that knocked him out of most of training camp. Walker is averaging an impressive 6.3 yards per carry on his 23 rushing attempts this season. He steps into a great situation. The Seahawks offense has been on fire the last few weeks, and the passing game led by Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett is more than potent enough to keep opponents from loading the box.
Other RBs to consider:
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England ($7,500)
While Damien Harris is still listed as questionable to play on Sunday, the expectation is that he will be sidelined again, which clears the field for Stevenson to again have a monster role. Last week, Stevenson played 90% of the snaps and turned his 27 touches into 175 total yards. The Patriots have rushed for 145-plus yards in each of the last three weeks, and the expectation is that Stevenson should handle nearly all of the carries in Week 6. Stevenson is averaging 5.5 yards per carry so far this season and has the look of a back who could emerge as a star in a workhorse role.
The Browns defense has gone downhill in recent weeks after a solid start. Over the last two weeks, both the Falcons and Chargers ran for over 200 yards. Stevenson is going to be extremely popular and, unlike the other two backups thrust into leading roles, is priced right up there with some of the other top backs (only $300 cheaper than Joe Mixon). He is still slightly underpriced given his expected role, but is he enough of a bargain to justify playing him if he is on 25% or more of the other tournament rosters? That is the tougher question and the only reason why he is not listed as a top play.
Darrell Henderson, LA Rams ($5,700) With Cam Akers out, Henderson should dominate backfield touches. The Rams have not been able to get much going on the ground but this feels like a spot where things could turn. The team is favored by 10 points at home against a floundering Panthers team which has allowed 138 rushing yards per game.
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati ($7,800) We know the opportunity is there. Mixon is averaging 19.2 carries and 5.4 targets per game this season. The problem has been an extreme lack of efficiency. We may have seen some positive regression in that regard in the second half of last week’s game against the Ravens. Mixon ran for 5.6 yards per carry in the game, with most of the longer runs coming in the final quarter. At some point, this offense is going to find its footing, and Mixon will have a big game. This is exactly the type of calculated risk that is worth taking in larger field tournaments.
Devin Singletary, Buffalo ($5,700) In the two competitive games Buffalo has played this season, Singletary averaged over 80% of the snaps. In the epic playoff matchup against the Chiefs last season, Singletary played every single snap and scored 13.1 FanDuel points. He is a very cheap way to get some contrarian exposure to this game, and if he scores a couple of short touchdowns, would give you massive leverage over the field that is going to be heavily invested in the passing offense.
Wide Receiver Positional Overview
There are some elite wide receivers on this slate who will always draw strong interest like Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson, JaMarr Chase, and Deebo Samuel. Each is a strong option. We will also see ownership concentrate on the wide receivers from the Buffalo-Kansas City and Arizona-Seattle games. These game environments are exciting, and we want to sprinkle in some options from these explosive offenses.
Top WR Options
JaMarr Chase, Cincinnati ($8,100)
Chase had a big game in Week 1 (10-129-1 with two more near touchdowns) but has been relatively quiet since. He is too talented not to have a big game at some point. This could be the week. New Orleans ranks last in the NFL in pass rush win percentage, meaning Burrow should finally have some time to let deeper routes develop. The Saints' already shaky secondary is also going to be without shutdown cornerback Marshon Lattimore. With Tee Higgins nursing a sore ankle, expect Chase to take on the true lead role and see 10-plus targets in his Louisiana homecoming. The upside is huge here, and Chase could fly slightly under the radar given few are talking about the Bengals-Saints matchup given the Bills-Chiefs game dominating the conversation.
Answered "where did the big plays for Ja'Marr Chase go?" with Josh McCown
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) October 14, 2022
and a few ways the Bengals can get them back
20 minutes. Lots of squiggly lines on top of All 22.https://t.co/F6Ex6fBLM0 pic.twitter.com/KHeXuQ2yzX
Gabe Davis, Buffalo ($6,900) The last time Davis played at Arrowhead, he scored 48.1 FanDuel points. We are dealing with small sample sizes still in terms of Davis being healthy and playing a full-time role, but the upside we have seen in that handful of games has been extreme. In addition to the monster playoff game, he also had 30.6 fantasy points just last week against the Steelers. That is two absurdly productive outings in his last three healthy appearances. Davis will be popular, but nobody else under $7K at the position has the same upside.
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay ($7,700)
The Buccaneers offense has heated up with back-to-back 350-plus yard passing games. Chris Godwin ($6,800) is also strongly in play and priced more attractively, but he comes with more risk, given that he is still working his way back to full health. Evans has been the one constant in the passing attack. Since Tom Brady arrived in Tampa, Evans has played 42 games (playoffs included) and scored 34 touchdowns. On this slate, only Cooper Kupp has a similar touchdown expectation.
The matchup is fantastic. The Steelers are giving up a league-high 41.4 FanDuel points per game to opposing wide receivers and will again be without top pass rusher T.J. Watt. In addition, Minkah Fitzpatrick is questionable.
Other WRs to Consider:
Cooper Kupp, LA Rams ($9,400) Kupp has been incredible to start the 2022 season, picking up right where he left off in 2021. He has 108-plus receiving yards in all but one game and has averaged 9.8 receptions and 0.8 touchdowns per game. Kupp’s salary is the only hindrance, but it is manageable this week, given the value at running back.
Jakobi Meyers, New England ($6,600) Meyers is averaging 9.0 targets, 6.7 receptions, and 87 receiving yards per game this season. That is a 17-game pace of 114 receptions and 1,479 receiving yards. He is the clear go-to option in the Patriots passing game, which will face a Browns defense missing top cornerback Denzel Ward.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kansas City ($5,800) As noted above, I like the idea of stacking the Bills passing game on the hunch that many will galaxy-brain their way into worse plays chasing uniqueness. If doing so, Valdes-Scantling is a great bring-back option. He has clearly emerged as the top Chiefs wide receiver and is coming off of a strong game against the Raiders (6 catches for 90 yards on 8 targets). If the Chiefs fall behind, expect Valdes-Scantling to get some extra deep ball opportunities.
Tight End Positional Overview
There is a clear separation between Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and the rest of the tight ends both this week and this season in general. There is also a big salary gap between this top pair and the pack, so it may be tough to get up to either Kelce or Andrews without making some serious sacrifices at other positions. Beyond the top two, we only have a few other options who are seeing consistent target volume from week to week. Tyler Higbee, Zach Ertz, and David Njoku stand out as higher floor options priced affordably. George Kittle is also interesting despite his lack of volume to date, given what we have seen from him in past seasons.
Top TE Options
Travis Kelce, Kansas City ($8,300)
Kelce is the obvious top tight end play on the slate as long as you can fit in his salary. In a potential shootout against the Bills, he should be the go-to target for Patrick Mahomes II. Kelce has feasted against this Bills defense in recent years. He has averaged 1.5 touchdowns per game against Buffalo in four meetings since 2020. He was especially dominant in the two recent postseason meetings, totaling 21 receptions for 214 yards and 3 touchdowns. With a playoff atmosphere on tap at Arrowhead, expect more of the same from Kelce.
Zach Ertz, Arizona ($6,000)
Over the past four weeks, Ertz has been targeted 37 times (9.3 per game). He is tied for third in the NFL in red zone targets (11) and tied for second in targets inside the 10-yard line (7). The Seahawks have given up 81 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends (second-most). In a year where very few tight ends are seeing consistent targets, Ertz has one of the higher floors at the position due to his overall usage. His upside is also more than meets the eye looking at box scores, given how many opportunities he has been seeing in the red zone.
Other TEs to consider:
George Kittle, San Francisco ($5,700) Kittle is too talented to go all season without making a fantasy impact. This could be the week he finally breaks out. In two career matchups against Atlanta, Kittle is averaging 9.5 catches for 113.5 receiving yards. The Falcons are giving up the fourth-most FanDuel points to opposing tight ends.
Mark Andrews, Baltimore ($7,800) Andrews is right there with Kelce as the league’s top tight end. He already has three games this season with at least 8 catches, 89 yards and a touchdown. Over the last four weeks, Andrews has 7 catches for 48 yards and 4 touchdowns in the red zone.
Top Defenses
Los Angeles Rams ($4,400)
The Rams are big home favorites against a struggling Carolina offense that will be led by P.J. Walker. The Panthers have an implied team total of just 15.5 points. The Panthers interior offensive line will struggle even more than the average team does with trying to block Aaron Donald.
Cincinnati Bengals ($3,600)
The Bengals defense has not given up more than 23 points in any game this season and faces a Saints offense with major injury issues. Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry are both out, while Chris Olave is questionable. This New Orleans offense is not scaring anyone when TreQuan Smith and Marquez Callaway are the top receiving weapons.
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