Cracking FanDuel Week 10

Photo: Imagn Images

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE:

Sunday Morning Thoughts:

Massive Sunday Morning Update: 9:45AM EST

Ezekiel Elliott is looking unlikely to play this week, and while we don't have official word, the fact that they elevated a running back from the practice squad normally tells you their feelings going into the week that it's unlikely he will play. If Elliott is out, Pollard immediately becomes the top option on this slate by a fairly wide margin.

This is a unique situation as Jonathan Taylor who is the pivot that I feel comfortable with if Elliott were to play. The problem is that Taylor is also the number one ranked running back this week in the article. So the question I'm currently debating is whether to sacrifice the pivot and use the two best running backs, or to just have a straight swap from Taylor to Pollard.

Where I'm currently at is that I feel there is a more than 80% chance that Ezekiel Elliott will miss this week, which makes it so that taking Taylor and Pollard in the same lineup is worth doing. This also allows enough of a salary upgrade to upgrade Jerry Jeudy to Amon-Ra St. Brown who while I don't love St. Brown he will be popular this week and is a player that I'd rather just cancel out rather than have a big exposure to him.

Updated Cash Lineup- If Ezekiel Elliott is playing, upgrade Pollard to Aaron Jones (let's hope that doesn't happen)

• QB Patrick Mahomes II, KC, $8,500
• RB Devin Singletary, BUF, $5,600
• RB Jonathan Taylor, IND, $7,000
• WR, JuJu Smith-Schuster, KC, $7,000
• WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET, $6,900
• WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE $5,700
• TE Travis Kelce, KC, $8,500
• Flex RB Tony Pollard, DAL, $7,000
• TD Pittsburgh Steelers, $3,600

Updated Cash Plus Lineup-

I don't typically update this for the article as 95% of people are reading this for the cash lineup which is what I spend by far the most time on and specialize in. With that said, I want to find a way to get Tony Pollard in all of my lineups if possible. You could do something like the following for Cash Plus.

• QB Patrick Mahomes II, KC, $8,500
• RB Devin Singletary, BUF, $5,600
• RB Jonathan Taylor, IND, $7,000
• WR, Davante Adams, LV, $8,500
• WR Tyreek Hill, MIA, $9,000
• WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE $5,700
• TE Evan Engram, JAC, $4,900
• Flex RB Tony Pollard, DAL, $7,000
• TD Pittsburgh Steelers, $3,600

SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.

• Kansas City (vs JAC) – 30.25 points
• Miami (vs CLE) – 26.25 points
• Chicago (vs DET) – 25.5 points

Week 9 Recap

Week 9 will likely be the most memorable week of the 2022 season when it comes to a DFS recap. The Primary Lineup was not particularly great but did just enough when Tom Brady threw a touchdown to beat the Rams. The lineup moved from the 52-54 percentile up to the 44-46% of lineups depending on the contests.

Total points scored- 117.3

• QB Tom Brady, TB, $6,900-15.2
• RB Deon Jackson, IND, $5,000-4.6
• RB Travis Etienne, JAC, $7,600- 25.6
• WR, Tyreek Hill, MIA, $8,700- 23.8
• WR Curtis Samuel, WAS, $5,600- 15.6
• WR DeAndre Hopkins, ARI, $8,600- 11.6
• TE Evan Engram, JAC, $5,200- 1.3
• Flex RB Austin Ekeler, LAC, $9,200- 20.6
• TD Chicago Bears, $3,000- -1

What went right:

• Travis Etienne was outstanding once again this past week as he scored two touchdowns and touched the ball 30 times solidifying himself as a number one running back moving forward.
• The late swap to Curtis Samuel on Sunday Morning paid off as he scored a touchdown and outscored Joshua Palmer as the Chargers offense greatly disappointed outside of Austin Ekeler.
• Tyreek Hill continues to cement himself as matchup proof as the Dolphins wide receiver had an outstanding game with 143 yards and a touchdown.
• It’s weird saying you were right about not taking a quarterback who finished as the 3^rd best quarterback on FanDuel but fading Josh Allen last week was the right move. He was priced as the clear top-end play, but had a horrendous day throwing for just 205 yards and 2 interceptions, but made up for it with a career rushing day as he ran for 86 yards and 2 touchdowns as 20.6 of his 24.8 points came as a runner.

What went wrong:

• Tom Brady was a terrible choice over Justin Fields who I wrote up last week, but ultimately thought his floor was too low. Miami’s defense against mobile quarterbacks has been abysmal this season.
• DeAndre Hopkins was incredibly disappointing. Hopkins scored early last week, but then seemingly was shutout the entire second half. The Cardinals continue to be one of the more perplexing teams in the NFL as just when we think their offense is starting to turn a corner, they lay another egg against Seattle at home. The reason Hopkins was such a killer is all of the other four big wide receivers on the slate Hill, Jefferson, Kupp, and Adams all had 25 or more fantasy points.

Injuries Create Opportunity:

A lot of injuries to keep an eye on this week that could significantly change the outlook for this slate.

• Josh Allen looks doubtful this week for the Bills. Allen is dealing with an elbow injury, and this would be a massive blow to the Bills offense and essentially take everyone in that offense off the board except for maybe Dawson Knox or maybe Devin Singletary sees an uptick in volume and is cheap at just $5,600. Stefon Diggs is an ok GPP play, but probably is not a cash viable play just based on the drop off from Josh Allen to Case Keenum. Keenum and Diggs were teammates back in 2017, but Diggs only had 849 yards in 2017.
• David Njoku will miss for Cleveland. This is a tough one given the Browns are expected to be in one of the highest scoring games of the week. Both Kareem Hunt and Donovan Peoples-Jones should see more work, but neither are particularly attractive this week given pricing on FanDuel.
• Matthew Stafford is questionable this week with a concussion. If Stafford is unable to go, John Wolford will get the start for the Rams, and could become a cash game play if Stafford were to miss at just $6,100. Wolford has started one game in his career back in 2020 where he threw for 231 yards in a game without Cooper Kupp and ran for another 56 yards. If Stafford is out, Cooper Kupp is likely not a cash game play as he’s too expensive for John Wolford throwing to him.
• Mecole Hardman will miss this week for the Chiefs. This should open up for additional opportunities for JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marques Valdez-Scantling. Travis Kelce also makes for a strong play this week.
• Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow were both placed on IR this week. This should open up opportunities for Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs, and maybe Mack Hollins. Both Waller and Renfrow were having down years, so expect that most of the work will just be consolidated throw the top two players in Las Vegas, but you could also see Foster Moreau who has been unable to take advantage of the Waller injuries so far this season.