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Jason Wood on Sep 8: Mahomes still has 50 touchdown upside, particularly with the Chiefs revamping their offensive line from top to bottom. The only quarterback worthy of a second-round pick in 12-team leagues.
Jason Wood on Sep 8: Some may forecast regression, but Allen's improvement over three seasons is nearly unparalleled in NFL history. Same coaches, same system, same supporting cast = no reason to doubt his bonafides.
Andrew Davenport on Sep 10: A large part of Murray's fantasy success came courtesy of a ridiculous 11 rushing touchdowns, 10 of which came in the first 10 weeks of the season. He will still be an elite fantasy quarterback in 2021, but expecting the same level of rushing production isn't a good bet. He still has QB1 overall upside, but fits best at the bottom of the tier of the top five fantasy quarterbacks.
Jason Wood on Sep 8: Murray improved across the board last year, but he and his coaches say he ran too much. If he makes good on running less, he might be over drafted by a round or two.
Jason Wood on Sep 8: Lamar Jackson regressed as a passer last year, but the Ravens bolstered his receiving corps substantially in the offseason and OC Greg Roman has promised to open up the playbook more. Buy the dip.
Jason Wood on Sep 8: Prescott was on pace for more than 6,000 yards passing before his season-ending injury and returns healthy with an enviable trio of stud receivers, and a running game that will keep defenses honest. He's on a short list of potential No. 1 overall quarterbacks.
Jason Wood on Sep 8: He's coming off record completions, attempts, completion percentage, and touchdowns yet fantasy managers love to push him down. Always one of the better values at the position.
Jason Wood on Sep 8: Brady's age wasn't a problem at 43 years old so why should 44 years old be a problem? He was QB7 last year in a new city with a new team and system, so a top-5 finish is hardly a stretch in Year 2.
Jason Wood on Sep 8: Herbert proved the doubters wrong with an elite rookie season, and history has been kind to comparable quarterbacks. The only fly in the ointment is the coaching turnover; we don't yet know if Joe Lombardi is a good play caller.
Andrew Davenport on Sep 10: With Rodgers returning to Green Bay for another year along with Davante Adams, he can safely be put inside the top 10 at the position. His 48 touchdowns in 2020 was an outlier, but he still has Adams, Aaron Jones, and a potent offense. He can once again be drafted with confidence as your QB1.
Jason Wood on Sep 8: After an acrimonious offseason, Rodgers and the Packers appear set to run it back for one more season, which makes him a no-brainer QB1 who should be off the board no later than 10th at the position.
Jason Wood on Sep 8: Not for the faint of heart given his limited playing time as a rookie and substandard accuracy as a passer. But his mobility can offset a lot of questions about passing inefficiency, at least while he stays healthy.
Victoria Geary on Jun 24: Jalen Hurts will be this year's Josh Allen and Kyler Murray, as he possesses tremendous rushing upside and his ADP remains a screaming value in drafts. His point total of 37.8 in Week 15 was 2020's sixth-highest single-game score from a quarterback, and that is exactly the type of ceiling you want in your lineup each week. When Hurts took over Weeks 14-16, the Eagles jumped to first overall in total yards per game and fourth in rushing yards per game. His 52% completion percentage will scare some off, but the context will show he was not afraid to chuck the ball downfield. 46% of his passing attempts were thrown 10 or more yards - the highest rate in the NFL. With a healthy offensive line, the addition of Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith, and a sub-par defense, the formula for a top-5 fantasy finish is set for Jalen Hurts.
Andrew Davenport on Sep 10: The concern with Arthur Smith leaving is a valid one, but all Ryan Tannehill has done the past two years is produce. He has an incredible knack for getting two touchdowns (or more) in every game he plays. Despite Smith leaving, the play action game will still work with stud Derrick Henry threatening defenses, and now Tennessee has added Julio Jones opposite A.J. Brown. This should once again have Tannehill contending for a Top 8 fantasy finish.
Jason Wood on Sep 8: Tannehill's outlook was trending down a month ago, but the Julio Jones trade re-establishes a floor as a top-12 fantasy quarterback. Assuming new OC Todd Downing can maintain the exemplary system Arthur Smith established.
Ryan Weisse on Jun 10: Itâ€™s hard to imagine Tannehill not finishing as a top-10 QB and you can get him as the QB11. While that doesnâ€™t initially sound like value, a Top 5 season is possible this season. The addition of Julio Jones, along with the growth of AJ Brown, should help him add to what was already an impressive 2020. He finished last season as the 7th best overall fantasy quarterback, with just over 3800 yards and 33 touchdowns. Both of those numbers should go up and Tannehill is going to outplay his ADP.
Jason Wood on Sep 8: Stafford has elite potential this year if he proves the key to unlocking Sean McVay's system. But his age and inconsistency, not to mention lack of mobility, warrant drafting as a high-upside QB2 instead of your starter.
Victoria Geary on Jun 24: The narrative that Stafford will be playing with the most talented offense of his career has forced his ADP to skyrocket in recent months. If you are drafting him anywhere from QB9 to QB12, you are likely taking Stafford at his absolute ceiling. In his 12 seasons as an NFL quarterback, Stafford has only thrown 30 or more total touchdowns twice, the most recent season being 2015 when he was still throwing to superstar Calvin Johnson. In addition, the Rams were tied for the second-most rushing attempts in the red zone in 2020, which does not bode well for Stafford's ceiling.
Jason Wood on Sep 8: Burrow has the potential to approach 700 pass attempts in a 17-game season given the Bengals defensive questions and coach Taylor's uptempo system. With a young trio of stud receivers and a healthy Joe Mixon, Burrow has more upside at his ADP than downside.
Ryan Weisse on Jun 18: It's not hard to understand the optimism for Burrow this year but drafting him as a top-12 QB feels like a trap. Yes, he's got an arsenal of weapons that would make some militaries jealous. Last year, with most of this same group, he averaged just 17 fantasy points per game. That ranked as the QB18. Is Ja'Marr Chase replacing AJ Green really moving him up 6+ spots? Can he protect Burrow's surgically repaired knee? The 8th round of your fantasy draft is not the time to answer these kinds of questions.
Jason Wood on Sep 8: Trevor Lawrence is a prototypical quarterback with as bright a future as anyone to enter the league in years. But his rookie year should be volatile given the roster turnover, new system, and new coaching staff. Lawrence's mobility is underappreciated and could give him a top-15 floor.
Jason Wood on Sep 8: Ryan was overvalued before the Julio Jones trade but is now grossly mispriced. Arthur Smith isn't going to run a pass-happy offense is he can help it, and Ryan should be viewed as a low-ceiling committee quarterback to use only when the matchup is friendly.
Victoria Geary on Jun 24: We have all seen Matt Ryan struggle when Julio Jones is out of the lineup. Now that Jones has been traded to the Tennessee Titans, Ryan is being drafted at his ceiling and is not worth the high price. He needed over 625 pass attempts last season to finish as the QB12 overall and was the QB13 in points per game. Ryan was also lacking week-to-week consistency, as he scored in the top-10 quarterbacks only five times on the season. Newly added tight end Kyle Pitts isn't enough of an upgrade to make us reach for Ryan at his current ADP.
Jason Wood on Sep 8: Cousins is the new Philip Rivers. No one wants to draft him and yet he puts up top-12 numbers at the season's end.
Jason Wood on Sep 8: Tagovailoa had a disappointing season by his own admission. Miami's front office made aggressive moves to ensure any failure to improve this year would be solely Tagovailoa's fault; there are no more excuses.
Andrew Davenport on Sep 10: Carr's 2020 season is very much under the radar for fantasy owners. He finished the year with 30 total touchdowns against just 9 interceptions. Quietly, Carr has hooked into Jon Gruden's system and is better than most drafters will give him credit for. Plus, their two young wide receivers will have another year to mature, and the Raiders added another perennially underrated guy in John Brown to replace Nelson Agholor. The Raiders need their offensive line to gel as they've had significant turnover, but Carr should provide solid value as a QB2 if they are reasonably proficient.
Jason Wood on Sep 8: Derek Carr's box scores read better than his reputation as a passer. He's hyper-accurate and has a cadre of offensive options yet to peak.
Jason Wood on Sep 8: Mayfield is always going to be volatile because his instincts are to be a gunslinger, but he took well to Kevin Stefanski's coaching and learned how to play within the system in 2020. He's a viable option, particularly as part of a late-round QB committee draft approach.
Jason Wood on Sep 8: Major shoulder surgery, age, and a less-than-stellar physique all lend doubt to Roethlisberger's relevance as a weekly fantasy starter.
Jason Wood on Sep 8: Ryan Fitzpatrick is capable of molten hot streaks, but he always follows them with ice-cold stretches. His aggressive nature should provide the supporting cast with more boom weeks, but the busts are still going to hurt.
Victoria Geary on Jun 24: Fitzpatrick gives the Washington offense a semblance of continuity after they went through a carousel of quarterbacks last season. In 2020, he finished with a QBR of 76.9, good for fifth-best amongst all quarterbacks and the best rating of his entire career. Fitzpatrick is now surrounded by capable playmakers in wide receivers Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel, as well as breakout running back Antonio Gibson. The Washington Football Team has a middling strength of schedule, and their defense will need help from Fitzpatrick to keep them in games. He has the potential to outperform his ADP by a large margin this year.
Jason Wood on Sep 8: Wilson has a clear path to playing time, and the new Jets coaching staff is committed to getting him experience in 2021 to build on in future years.
Jason Wood on Sep 8: Winston won the starting job, which is great news for the Saints' skill players, but not necessarily great news for Saints fans given Winston's propensity for turnovers.
Victoria Geary on Aug 19: Winston is just one year removed from an overall QB3 finish, scoring 21 fantasy points per game. Many believe it may be Taysom Hill at the helm due to his rapport with head coach Sean Payton, but Hill's versatility as a weapon from anywhere on the field makes the offense much less predictable than if he were their starting quarterback. Running back Alvin Kamara, the heart and soul of the New Orleans' offense, tallied just six total targets from Hill in Weeks 11 through 13 after averaging nine targets per game with Drew Brees. Winston's past experience as a starter and the ability to absorb the playbook throughout a full offseason should leave no doubt for the coaching staff when making the ultimate decision on starting quarterback.
Jason Wood on Sep 8: Mac Jones was the better quarterback this summer and the Patriots did the smart thing, naming him the Week 1 starter while jettisoning Cam Newton.
Andrew Davenport on Sep 10: Wentz's surgery went well enough that he should be able to get on the field in the first quarter of the season. He still shouldn't be targeted in one quarterback leagues, but he should be moved back up into the bottom of the QB2 discussion. His and Quenton Nelson's successful surgeries pave the way for the Colts offense to be back on track by October.
Jason Wood on Sep 8: Coming off a disastrous season, Wentz landed in the best spot possible for a reclamation. Frank Reich knows Wentz's strengths and weaknesses better than anyone. But the Colts offensive line faces as many questions as the Eagles M.A.S.H. unit from a season ago.
Jason Wood on Sep 8: Joe Brady is one good season from Sam Darnold away from his pick of NFL head coaching vacancies. The Panthers roster is stacked with talent, and Darnold can't be judged on his tenure in New York given the toxicity of the coaching and ownership.
Jason Wood on Sep 8: Justin Fields could be an every-week fantasy starter later in the season, but it's not clear he'll be given an opportunity to win the starting job right away.
Jason Wood on Sep 8: The 49ers spent a fortune to move up in the draft for Trey Lance. While he won't start in Week 1, there's no doubt the team wants Lance to be the starter exiting the season.
Jason Wood on Sep 8: Daniel Jones finally has a difference-making No. 1 receiver in Kenny Golladay. Is that enough to salvage his status as an NFL starter? I'm doubtful.
Jason Wood on Sep 8: It takes an optimistic bent to expect Goff to perform well in his new town. The Lions have no discernible No. 1 receiver, a coaching staff that's hard to be excited about, and most of us vividly remember how awful Goff looked before he had Sean McVay in his earpiece every snap.
Jason Wood on Sep 8: Outside of a 4-game stretch in New Orleans two seasons ago, Teddy Bridgewater has been too conservative to win in today's NFL. He has the arm strength to push the ball downfield but doesn't have the stones.
Jason Wood on Sep 8: Taylor is the Week 1 starter, but history hasn't been kind to the veteran. He's a placeholder on a bad team.
Jason Wood on Sep 8: Garoppolo needed a great preseason to hold onto his job, and that didn't happen. While he appears safe for the Week 1 start, Trey Lance is going to be the starter soon.
Jason Wood on Sep 8: Andy Dalton will be the starter in Week 1, but the clock is ticking as Justin Fields looks like the real deal.
Andrew Davenport on Sep 10: The closer the season approaches with no break in the civil suit stalemate, the closer Watson is to not playing a down in 2021. There may be a settlement still to come, but until such time as the criminal investigation is concluded and the civil cases are settled, it is best not to bet on Watson for this season except as a late flier as a QB2 in drafts.
Jason Wood on Sep 8: A number of teams remain interested in acquiring Watson, but his legal situation clouds the potential for 2021 relevance.
Jason Wood on Sep 8: Taysom Hill should never have been a serious contender for an NFL starting job, and when Jameis Winston beats you out, it's time to start rethinking your value.
Jason Wood on Sep 8: Teddy Bridgewater won the Week 1 starting job, and Lock needs a minor miracle to return to relevance.
Jason Wood on Sep 8: Heinicke almost pulled off a playoff miracle last year, and shouldn't be counted out in Washington given Ryan Fitzpatrick's historical pattern of huge highs and abysmal lows.
Jason Wood on Sep 8: The Packers front office is trying hard to justify the Jordan Love experiment, but he needs to show it on the field before fantasy managers should buy the hype.
Jason Wood on Sep 8: Cam Newton was awful last year as a passer, and his legs saved his fantasy value. Another up-and-down summer combined with a stellar showing by Mac Jones led to Newton's release.
Jason Wood on Sep 8: Allen doesn't have a clear path to playing time, and may not even win the No. 2 job over Heinicke. But if he does break camp as the backup, he could end up starting a handful of games given Ryan Fitzpatrick's volatile history.