This series distills NFL charts into easily digestible fantasy football information for opportunity and upside. In this installment, the wide receivers are the featured position.
Links to entire series:
The Good
Many of the established WR1 types are reaching the midpoint of a general high-level wide receiver age curve, but this is more of a dynasty point than a redraft format discussion. There are plenty of clear WR1 types on their respective depth charts, more than half of the NFL (19), in the matrix with minimal role threat also on the depth chart. Filtering the clear WR1 roles also with stable and at least top-half NFL quarterbacks forms the following list:
- Julio Jones
- Amari Cooper
- Kenny Golladay
- Davante Adams
- T.Y. Hilton
- Tyreek Hill
- Adam Thielen
- Michael Thomas
- JuJu Smith-Schuster
- Mike Evans
Those with possible (or probable) strong quarterback play:
Those with more questionable (uncertain) quarterback play:
- Stefon Diggs
- Allen Robinson
- A.J. Green
- Keenan Allen
- DeVante Parker
- Terry McLaurin
The Bad
The combinations of shaky or questionable quarterback play with less than elite WR1 status or depth charts is a risky fantasy combination historically. Outliers will occur but the odds of a top-12 fantasy receiver season plummet under these circumstances and even WR2-level play compared to even average quarterback play and a more robust receiver depth chart-leading option.
Questionable receiver and quarterback combinations include:
- Courtland Sutton (possibly Jerry Jeudy)
- D.J. Chark
- Henry Ruggs (possibly Bryan Edwards)
- Julian Edelman (possibly NKeal Harry)
- Breshad Perriman (possibly Jamison Crowder)
- Deebo Samuel (possibly Brandon Aiyuk)
The (Potentially) Ugly
In addition to fighting the strong historical touchdown (and efficiency) trend for Lamar Jackson, the Ravens passing game has Mark Andrews as the proxy WR1 within the tight end-centric offense. Pair that with Marquise Brown as one of the weaker metric prospects of Round 1 receivers in recent years and a sub-sized one at that and Baltimore has the potentially ugly tag within this receiver look ahead. Devin Duvernay is a significant addition from Day 2 this offseason but even the WR1 on this depth chart could have a messy situation in 2020.
A similar story to Baltimore could play out in Carolina as the true WR1 could be a non-receiver. Here it is Christian McCaffrey. D.J. Moore has posted anemic touchdown rates in his career to-date. The team added Robby Anderson and Curtis Samuel is a former Round 2 selection still on his rookie deal. Add previously uninspiring from a fantasy front Teddy Bridgewater as the quarterback and this is another potentially ugly depth chart for a huge upside perspective.
Daniel Jones is a question mark with his Year 2 development for the Giants and the WR1-2-3 may be the muddiest in the entire NFL. Darius Slayton flashed as a Day 3 rookie in 2019, but his lack of pedigree points to heavier competition to keep that role for long as injuries decimated the depth chart last season. Golden Tate is a solid older veteran and Sterling Shepard has Day 2 pedigree and NFL production already in his profile. Evan Engram could be the Mark Andrews WR1 proxy in this offense as well.
With better quarterback play than the previous mentions in this section, the Eagles have an ambiguous receiver depth chart with Alshon Jeffery having lost a step or two from his physical prime, DeSean Jackson being well into his 30s but still a vertical threat, Jalen Reagor an incoming Round 1 selection with elite metrics, and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside a Round 2 pick from the last offseason who had a near-redshirt rookie year.
The best quarterback-talent combination on this list is likely in Seattle with Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf battling for the WR1 role. There is easy top-12 upside here in a perfect storm but if they split the role and Seattle stays on the lower volume side through the air, then both could be more WR2 fantasy types than pushing for WR1 status.
