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The Cowboys have a trio of talented wide receivers, and there is generally not much debate as to how they fall in the pecking order. In almost everyone's rankings, Amari Cooper is easily ahead of Michael Gallup who is easily ahead of CeeDee Lamb.
Is there a realistic scenario where this order is wrong? Are you finding yourself getting any of these players often? Are any (or all) of these players overrated? Could they be underrated? When taking ADP into account, who is your most-wanted receiver in Dallas?
Jeff Haseley
I generally do not target any of the Dallas wide receivers unless Michael Gallup is staring me in the face because he is still on the board one round after his ADP. Amari Cooper is too inconsistent to begin with and now that Gallup and CeeDee Lamb are in the mix, it leaves me not wanting any of them unless the value is too good to ignore. Also, the Cowboys will play the AFC North and the NFC West. The NFC East has the worst schedule against fantasy defenses in the league. There are too many factors for me to want any of this uncertainty in Dallas. The Cowboys also play Baltimore, San Francisco, and Philadelphia in three of the last four games.
Chad Parsons
I agree with the consensus-market pecking order with much of a quibble. Amari Cooper is my clear preference of the trio, but I gravitate more toward running backs in his draft round. Michael Gallup is underrated with his historical profile and 2019 breakout season, but situationally it is tough to completely buy-in with the drafting of CeeDee Lamb snipping away at Gallup's upside potential. Also, Gallup resides in an appealing zone of running backs like Derrius Guice, Ronald Jones II, and J.K. Dobbins, strong quarterbacks, and a few select tight ends like Evan Engram and Hayden Hurst types. Gallup is more of a victim of better pivots in the draft range than anything. As for Lamb, I am generally fading rookie receivers this year not named Jalen Reagor for redraft impact. Lamb, outside of Cooper or Gallup missing extensive time, is in a draft range I would not be passing on optimal backup running backs or clearer-path receivers like Emmanuel Sanders if still looking to fill out the position.
Clayton Gray
I'm finding myself drafting none of these three guys for a variety of worries.
When it's time to take Cooper, I decline because I'm worried about his propensity to find injuries. When it's time to take Gallup, I decline because I'm worried Lamb will take too much of a share of the targets. When it's time to take Lamb, I decline because I'm worried there won't be enough targets for him to be a viable fantasy option.
And yes, I know those worries are sometimes in conflict, but that's okay. Such is life.
But there are other reasons to not reach for a Dallas wide receiver. The biggest is that there seems to be wide receiver value everywhere this season. At almost every spot in a draft, there's a feeling that the receivers you can get a round later aren't that much worse. Of course, you can't pass on receivers forever, but this value should keep you from taking a wide receiver you have worries about.
Phil Alexander
Dallas' passing game is going to produce some monstrous fantasy performances, but it won't be easy to predict which wide receiver will make the biggest splash from week to week.
As a result, drafting Amari Cooper -- the most expensive option -- doesn't make sense to me. I'd rather guys who are sure-fire WR1s on their respective teams like D.J. Chark, T.Y. Hilton, A.J. Green, and Terry McLaurin. They're usually available a round or two later to boot.
I wouldn't rule out Gallup having a career-year, but like Clayton, I don't know how much Lamb will encroach on his role. The best bet in this passing game might be to "take the syrup over the pancakes" (shout out to Rumford Johnny), and draft Dak Prescott at ADP. The receiving production for Cooper, Gallup, and Lamb converges at Prescott, and you won't have to worry about which wideout has the big game each week.
Blake Jarwin is also one of my favorite tight ends to draft. He's been hyper-efficient with his targets the last two seasons and will be free to run up the seam while defenses have their hands full with the three wide receivers, Ezekiel Elliott, and Prescott as a runner.
Andy Hicks
This is a case of three not going into two. It is rare for an offense to be able to accommodate three starting fantasy wide receivers and I highly doubt it happens in Dallas this year. Without knowing how ready CeeDee Lamb is, the best situation is to avoid the player with the highest draft slot, Amari Cooper.
Cooper had a great year on paper that was rewarded with a huge contract in the off-season. The reality was that his dynamite start to the 2019 season soon spluttered and he finished with an average of fewer than four catches for less than fifty yards a game over his last seven games. With only one touchdown over this timeframe he was easily outperformed by his teammate Michael Gallup.
Were it not for two missed games Gallup's numbers would have been very similar to his much more credentialed teammate. Moving onto 2020 and the big question is how does the arrival of rookie CeeDee Lamb affect the whole passing game distribution? Is this a Randy Moss situation where one of the 1000 yard receivers from the previous year turn into Jake Reed? I do not doubt that each of the primary receivers will have big games, the question is reliable production. Cooper has consistently been inconsistent in his career to date. The so-called 100 million dollar contract itself was also smoke and mirrors. It is essentially a two-year deal that Dallas can escape from after the 2021 season with relative ease. Cooper will be a nice receiver this year but will be overvalued considerably. Gallup and Lamb on the other hand have significant room to improve on their ADP. I would be more than happy to target Lamb or Gallup as my third or fourth receiver, whichever one falls the farthest.
Dan Hindery
The Footballguys Wisdom of the Crowd survey has Amari Cooper as WR10, Michael Gallup as WR29, and CeeDee Lamb as WR43. I agree with the consensus in terms of the order but think the gap in production is going to be narrower than ADP suggests.
Amari Cooper is being drafted too high. While he should lead the wide receiver corps in targets, I do not think he is going to be a big target hog. He is also the guy likely to see the opponents' best cornerback in coverage.
Michael Gallup is being drafted right around where he should be. I have him WR31 and he is going WR29. He is not someone I am targeting because I prefer Marquise Brown and Tyler Boyd in the same range but he is worthy of his ADP.
CeeDee Lamb is the best value and only one of this trio I am actively targeting at current ADP. Lamb may be the most talented of the three receivers and is going to have the most favorable matchups lining up primarily in the slot. I like him as a top-40 WR who should hit the ground running.
In 2020, there will be an increased risk of guys missing time. This helps make a player like Lamb, who is one injury or sickness away from a huge role in a great offense, more valuable than normal.
Jeff Pasquino
Given the lack of preseason, I don't see how this order will be wrong. Cooper is a clear NFL lead wide receiver (WR1), demanding the attention of defenses first and foremost. Gallup is not strong enough to lead a passing game, as I don't trust that he has the skills of Cooper to beat tougher single coverage (best defensive back) or double-coverage consistently.
Last year, Dak Prescott had nearly 600 attempts (Top 5), and they broke down this way: Cooper (119), Gallup (112), Randall Cobb and Jason Witten (83 each) and Ezekiel Elliott (72) as the top five Cowboys in targets.
If Lamb had had a preseason, I could see him pushing Gallup for work, especially with Witten gone. But now that Lamb will have to learn as we go into the season and the veterans are more established in the offense, I think the target order is clearly Cooper first with Gallup getting fewer targets than last year. Lamb will be used more this season than Cobb was last season, which I think takes some targets from Gallup but not enough to take the second-most targeted receiver title. Blake Jarwin should be able to step up and receive as many looks as Witten did, as will Elliott. If anything, I see Lamb seeing more chances than Cobb did last year and taking more away from Gallup, which lowers Gallup's numbers and boosts Lamb - but not significantly enough to raise his ADP. I think the ADP is just about right across the receivers, but if I was to pick one overvalued player it would be Gallup and Lamb is undervalued - but not by much for either. That makes Lamb my value pick of the three but I will not be looking to overdraft him by much more than a round from his current ADP level.
Bob Henry
I agree that the ADP and evaluation of the order on these three players is correct. Unlike some of my colleagues, I think there is a path to volume and fantasy relevance for all three receivers this year. I'll start by simply taking a look at how I'm projecting or ranking each player compared to their consensus PPR ADP.
- WR11-WR13 depending on different ADP sources
- WR7 in my projections
Cooper is in an unenviable place at the top of a lengthy tier that extends from WR7 to at least WR16, creating a value bubble that we often talk about making WRs excellent targets in rounds 3 through 5 and running backs better targets in the opening rounds due to quality and scarcity at the top. Earlier in the season, I found myself taking Cooper more than I do now. Some of that was a lack of patience, being enamored by the Cowboys passing game and Cooper's (still intact) massive upside for season-long and on a game-by-game basis. Anticipating a small decline in target share, but not enough to move him out of the realm of WR1s.
- WR29-WR33 based on various ADP sources
- WR27 in my projections.
Gallup seems to be affected the most by the selection of CeeDee Lamb. I don't think it's warranted, though. Gallup is a fine receiver in his own right, he improved considerably in his second season, and his per-game fantasy production was nearly the same as Cooper's. Like Cooper, I don't see a dramatic dip in snaps, targets, or production for Gallup, who remains an ascendant player in a Cowboys offense that should be among the league's elite.
- WR39 but with more variance than Cooper and Gallup
- WR37 in my projections
I am the highest of my peers who provide projections here at Footballguys and I'm totally good with that. Randall Cobb produced 55-828-3 over 15 games as the Cowboys third receiver last year. They're also replacing 63 receptions from Jason Witten while Blake Jarwin also hauled in 31. This is where I believe the Cowboys offense will fundamentally pivot with Lamb onboard. First, Cobb is a wily veteran who isn't a burner, but consistently finds openings and exploits defenses when their primary focus is on Elliott, Cooper and Gallup. Witten was a slug, but a trustworthy target as well. Needless to say, I don't think Jarwin will command 90-ish targets and at least 10-20 of those will go towards Lamb along with those that previously went to Cobb.
Lamb is also a much better receiver at this point of their careers than Cobb. I don't say that lightly. He is more explosive, capable of making more plays downfield before and after the ball is in his hands, and I strongly believe he will command more snaps and targets than Cobb while acknowledging that he lacks repetitions and rapport out of the gate. He could be the best mismatch on the field from day one against nickel corners, especially if he has the advantage of movement. The opportunity is there and I anticipate Lamb's targets to be of higher value as well (points generated per target or route run, you choose).
Do I practice what I preach? Absolutely. My current player shares for these three show that I definitely target and value Lamb near his ADP far more than Cooper or Gallup, but clearly I like all three at their ADP. Cooper just has a big group of players who are statistically as relevant as him and there are other positions in play where elite talent is available to consider as options.
Player shares for me: Lamb 40%, Cooper 9%, Gallup 9%.
Jason Wood
I couldn't say it any better than Bob has, so I won't regurgitate his analysis for the sake of adding to the conversation. I'll just say I agree with his views. Amari Cooper is easily worth drafting as a WR1 this year, and has the clearest path to volume in 2020 and beyond given his contract. You all know Michael Gallup has been a favorite of mine, and I targeted him in every dynasty league as a rookie. Last year, he emerged as a legitimate 1B to Cooper's 1A, before getting banged up. I don't think the on-field talent and the chemistry he has with Prescott simply gets pushed aside because the Cowboys took CeeDee Lamb. Remember, Lamb wasn't in their plans. That was a classic case of a guy they assumed would be long gone still on the board, and their front office did the correct thing -- winning franchises add value when it's available.
But my point is that Lamb wasn't a need pick. The Cowboys aren't unhappy with Gallup. Lamb offers them an embarrassment of riches.
I don't think the pandemic does Lamb any favors for relevance in 2020. He's behind two Pro Bowl-caliber receivers who already know how to ball out with Prescott under center.
Longer-term, I suspect Lamb will emerge as an elite playmaker, too, and Gallup will leave Dallas for free-agent riches. But that's something for dynasty leaguers to worry about, not redraft participants.
The other consideration is Dallas is under new leadership. Mike McCarthy is a West Coast offense coach through and through, and we can't assume the Cowboys system will look like last year's simply because the key veterans return intact. I'm not going to believe Dallas will have the passing volume to make three receivers relevant until I see it.
The obvious caveat here is injury. Lamb could totally become a fantasy asset that was well worth his ADP if either Cooper or Gallup go down for multiple games. Is there a scenario where Gallup gets hurt, Lamb steps in admirably, and Gallup never gets his job back? Yes, it's not a likely scenario, but it's within the range of potential outcomes.
Justin Howe
I agree with Clayton - I doubt I'll have much of any of these guys across my rosters. All are uncertain, and all have souped-up price tags due to reputation, situation, or both. Remember: Dak Prescott threw for 4,902 yards and 30 touchdowns last year, yet the Cowboys were unable to prop up a fantasy-relevant WR3.
Cooper is an easy pass in Round 3. You want consistency from this spot, and last year Cooper landed south of 50 yards in 6 of his 15 full games. I fail to see how adding a blue-chip rookie to the mix helps things. There are just too many wideouts in that range - D.J. Moore, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Adam Thielen, and a handful more - with better paths to even better volume. And I can't imagine the upside over last year's numbers - 79-1,189-8, good but not ideal for a fantasy WR1.
Like Jeff, I've got my eye on Gallup in the middle rounds, where his clear WR2 potential can look like a steal. In some early best-ball drafts, he's sitting there in Round 8 or 9, despite coming fresh off a 1,100-yard season. But I'm not jumping any sooner than that. Gallup did quite well to post that mark on just 113 targets - he was among the league's best downfield threats last year - but that looks like his hard volume ceiling in 2020. A ho-hum line around 55-850-5 is well within his range of outcomes, and that wouldn't justify passing on more helpful Round 6 and 7 names.
Lamb is also a value when he hangs around in drafts, but that doesn't happen often. He's often on the board when I start looking for quarterbacks, meaning that I've already secured 4-5 wideouts.
Jordan McNamara
Jason Witten and Randall Cobb vacated 165 targets from last year's team that led the league in offense, so there is plenty of volume available for all three receivers. I like Blake Jarwin as a flier at tight end, but there is a very real possibility this becomes a wide receiver plus Zeke Elliott pass funnel in 2020. The abbreviated offseason stunts some of my hopes for CeeDee Lamb, particularly early in the season, so I think this is a wheels-up scenario for Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup. Again, in an ordinary year, Gallup would be harmed by the selection of Lamb, but 2020 is a year to bet on continuity, so he is an intriguing option at cost. Amari Cooper is a legit WR1 at fringe WR1 costs, and if he is available in the third round after selecting two running backs, you have an excellent start.
Andrew Davenport
I think the order of how these guys are being drafted is pretty accurate, but the gap between Cooper and Gallup is way too wide. As a result I find myself passing on Cooper and targeting Gallup more often. The problem for me is that I tend to agree with Dan in that when Gallup comes up in a serpentine draft I'm usually interested in another receiver being drafted around him like Tyler Boyd or Jarvis Landry. Gallup is, however, high on my list of auction targets because I can safely slot him as a WR3 and don't have to pass on others I like to get him.
I'm mainly passing on Cooper because I'm a risk-averse player and I am not interested in drafting guys who disappear like he does. Plus, he has to be taken in the third round or thereabouts and that is too high for a guy with that significant of a consistency issue. I know that this has been repeated ad nauseam, but these things get legs for a reason. In 2019 he had 8 games where he failed to top four receptions, and as Justin said, he failed to top 50 receiving yards in 6 games (7 if you count the New England game). That disappearing act is devastating for a weekly game like we play. I like Cooper in the fifth so he isn't a cornerstone of your team, but the third is too pricey.
Gallup's performance in 2019 was what you want to see from a second-year wide receiver. He missed two games, and interestingly, he averaged 8 targets per game in the other 14, while Cooper averaged 7.3. Gallup's final line may have even been better than Cooper's if he had played the full slate. I don't necessarily believe Gallup takes over this year as the top guy, but he has every bit of the upside Cooper does and I can get him much later. I think Gallup has the most draft value based on his ADP as his PPR points per game were good enough to make him a middling WR2 last year. There is plenty of room for him to deliver on his draft price.
Lamb is, as everyone has noted, the big wild card. He's a talented and explosive player, and while I understand he will be better than a declining Randall Cobb, I'm not convinced he ends up with a much different stat line. Investing in the talent as a precursor to an increased role because of COVID positives or an injury is really the only way I'm very interested in Lamb in a typical redraft league. The two guys ahead of him are too good for Lamb to come in and supplant either one of them given the situation rookies face this year. I probably won't have Lamb anywhere simply because someone else will have more faith in his stand-alone value than I do. I think he's more of a lottery ticket pick than maybe his talent would indicate for his first season.
Devin Knotts
This is an offense that I am completely avoiding this season. The pecking order will assuredly be Cooper as the top receiver followed by Gallup and Lamb who I expect to take some time to transition to a consistent role in this offense. The Cowboys offense was propped up last season by some garbage time performances by this passing offense that led to Dak Prescott throwing for 4,900 yards. I expect this to come back down to the 4,500-yard range. Based on ADP, Cooper has an ADP as the 12th wide receiver, which is a slight discount from last year where he finished as the 10th wide receiver, but he was propped up by two massive games in losses to Green Bay and Minnesota in garbage time performances.
Cee Dee Lamb is currently being taken as the first rookie receiver off the board which is crazy as he is likely going to play third fiddle in this offense in a year that the offseason is shortened that rookie receivers could take some time to develop and even as he develops, he will still have to contend with two receivers coming off big years to have a consistent role in this offense.
David Dodds
I also view the order as Cooper, Gallup, Lamb. This passing offense should be elite and all three could have explosive games within this system. Here is my current take on the three players:
- ADP - WR12
- Wisdom of the Crowds - WR 10
- My projection - WR8
This is a player I generally am not targeting in drafts, but he can end up in my builds if he drops a few spots lower than his ADP. He is priced correctly but is a hard player to trust on a weekly basis due to his inconsistent production. I like him better in best-ball formats than traditional fantasy leagues.
- ADP - WR33
- Wisdom of the Crowds - WR 29
- My projection - WR26
Gallup is the Dallas player I draft most often (especially in best-ball formats). Gallup doubled his yardage production in 2019 despite playing in two fewer games. He is a player who wouldn't surprise me if his stats leap-frogged Amari Cooper in 2020 or 2021.
- ADP - WR39
- Wisdom of the Crowds - WR 43
- My projection - WR41
Although my projection is close to ADP, I find Lamb is rarely still available when I would select him. With so much depth at wide receiver, I am targeting deep discounts later in the draft and Lamb rarely varies much from ADP.
