Photo: Kyle Terada, USA Today Sports

“Have a plan. Follow the plan, and you’ll be surprised how successful you can be. Most people don’t have a plan. That’s why it’s easy to beat most folks.” – Paul “Bear” Bryant, football coach, University of Alabama’s Crimson Tide.

I've always loved road trips. When I was seven and we drove across the country, I was the navigator. I stared at the atlas to learn all of the routes and watched the mile markers and exits pass by to track our progress. Our destination is success, defined as getting a player at value, and like a road trip has to have stops for gas, food, drink, and bathroom breaks, we need to make sure to fill our starting lineup and stock our bench with useful and potentially valuable players.

Striking a balance between having a road map built by good research to navigate your draft and seeing how your draft is unfolding through the lens of necessary alterations on the fly to that plan is a difficult task. If you improvise or go “best player available” every round, you could leave weaknesses that are hard to overcome if you don’t draft and manage in a style to mitigate your unforeseen shortcoming. If you stick with your directions through hell or high water, you can miss great values or other ways to exploit the tendencies of your leaguemates.

I want to emphasize this: EVERY PLAN WORKS IF YOU PICK THE RIGHT PLAYERS.

You can gain some edges over your opponents by timing your picks by position to coincide with the areas of the draft most likely to yield the best ROI at the position, but this will gain you maybe a 5-10% edge on your competition at the very most. You win your league by building in upside capable of giving you massive advantages at a few positions while not conceding much to the competition at other positions. You must take a handful of players who can greatly exceed their draft value, which includes taking on the risk that make those players available later than their ceiling suggests they should be.

You can’t win your league by swinging for singles and doubles in your entire draft.

Often I hear “You can’t win your league in the first round, but you can lose it”. Bullpucky. I and many others have won leagues after shanking first rounders and other early picks. Matt Waldman lays out the case for the importance of the rest of fantasy football that doesn’t involve the draft in his typical immersive way, and every one of your should read it right now. What this means is that your draft should build in some confidence in your abilities to address weaknesses in-season. You can’t have everything in your draft. Isolate a few spots you are comfortable with operating at from a weakness and understand what your strategy will be during the season to deal with that. Streaming TEs. RB2BC. QBBC. And play it safe in the 1st/2nd if you want, but know that taking risky players there does not doom your season if they fail.

So, be thinking ceiling for most, if not all, of your draft. Know that you are going to “punt” a position or two and devise a strategy to optimize your chances of getting away with it. But most of all, take players you can believe in. Don’t talk yourself out of players you like because you already filled the position’s starting requirements or need to fill another starting position that just saw a run take place. Don’t take players that don’t give you the warm fuzzies. The heart of this endeavor is still player/team evaluation, even if it is also the most difficult part.

So I just made a big speech to tell you that draft plans only give you incremental edges, but they won’t win your league for you. Now here’s my draft plan. Enjoy.

A year like no other

With no preseason games to skew ADP and much less camp buzz than usual, we will be heading into drafts relying on our own evaluations and gut feelings about players and teams more than ever. August is usually a time where great spring values evaporate as the hive mind becomes aware of the new ranges of possibilities in the impending new reality. This year, ADP is not going to move as much, so you shouldn’t second guess yourself when ADP is way out of line with your evaluations. It’s also possible that ironing out the skewing effect of new August information that may or may not be predictive will make final ADP more accurate than it has been in previous years. This doesn’t even begin to address the possibilities of coronavirus making depth more important than ever, especially on game day where the league has already extended the deadline to promote players from the practice squad to 90 minutes before the game to allow for last-second adjustments. I tried to address some of the possible ways our strategy could change to anticipate how this season will be different than any other here

As always, fantasy football is a diversion, an escape where we get to call the shots. Do it your way and enjoy the peace of mind that comes with getting lost in a puzzle and forgetting the pressures of everyday life.

Cliff’s Notes

QB: Don’t shy away from a top 2 or top 6 quarterback pick, but there are enough late round options to take the tank to E again this year. Make sure to take your favorite late round option even if you take a top 6 quarterback to start

RB: Pass on running back in the first only if you have a good plan for running back in the mid rounds. Feel free to wait on your RB2 until as late as the 6th-7th, but know that backs with top 10 upside are available in the third too. Running backs who are good in the passing game and clear handcuffs should be your priorities in the late rounds.

WR: Take a wide receiver in the first round only if you think they are going to be THE WR1. Take a wide receiver in the second round only if you think they are going to be in the top 3. Wide receivers with top five upside are available in the third round, Top 10 upside in the fourth, Top 15 upside in the fifth, Top 20 upside in the sixth, and so on. Break ties against wide receiver early because possible weekly lineup contributors will be available until the end of your draft.

TE: Don’t shy away from a top 2 or top 4 option at tight end, but avoid the dead zone of TE5-8. There are enough late round options to wait at tight end, but take two if you do, and take your favorite even if you take a top 4 option.

K: Take one in the last round and don’t give in to lobbying to remove the position from fantasy leagues

DEF: Get Indianapolis in the next to last round

Navigating Quarterback

For the second straight year, a quarterback drafted outside of the top 10 ended up setting the pace and presenting an almost unfair advantage. While this appears to strengthen the case for waiting at quarterback on first blush, that perspective ignores that those two quarterbacks - Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes II - are the most likely to create that kind of advantage again this year. An advantage that is worth a first-round pick in VBD terms, but available in the second, or even third round of many drafts. Waiting at quarterback can and will work in some cases, but this year is my favorite in a long time to go early quarterback. That doesn’t mean that taking a quarterback in the QB3-6 range, QB7-12 range, or QB13-20 range to be your Week 1 starter is a bad strategy. Here are my favorite ways to play each range of the quarterback crop:

Top 2 Quarterback

I like this option this year for two reasons. First, I am confident that Patrick Mahomes II and Lamar Jackson will continue to be top five options at worst and in the one game scenario we find in fantasy playoffs, they still represent an advantage that will strike fear in your opponent. Second, the wide receiver and running back options available in the second round aren’t as close to the first round options (except for a running back or two that can leak into the early second) as in previous years.

I get it, late round quarterback is attractive because you can get 15-20 points off of the waiver wire. That was a more compelling argument when the top quarterbacks were in the 24-25 point per game range. Enter quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes II who can score 30 points a game on average in typical scoring systems and the game has changed. A 10 point per game advantage is the largest that any player at any position will give you over replacement value except Christian McCaffrey, who is the runaway #1 overall pick. The object of fantasy football is to score more points than your opponent and it sure seems like Jackson and Mahomes are the shortest line between points A and B to achieve that result. I’m also good with taking Travis Kelce or George Kittle in the second round, and quarterback is easier to address adequately later than tight end, so that might be the best reason to skip a top two quarterback at ADP.

Destination: Lamar Jackson in 4 pt per pass touchdown/pt per 25 passing yards leagues, Patrick Mahomes II in leagues that rewards passing stats with more points or give bonuses for 300 yard passing games, in the second round.

QB3-QB6

This is a fun tier and it could produce a quarterback who joins Jackson and Mahomes this year. Russell Wilson just needs more pass attempts. Kyler Murray needs to make a second year leap along with the Arizona offense now that it has DeAndre Hopkins. Deshaun Watson needs to keep the offense humming without Hopkins. Dak Prescott is the most enticing and maybe only needs to be competent. Chances are 1-2 rounds will pass between the second of Mahomes/Jackson and the first of this tier. One approach is to just target the last or second to last member of the tier if it times up with your pick, the other is to zero in on one and be the team to break the seal on the tier or quickly pounce if your pick lines up soon after the QB3 pick, assuming he wasn’t “your guy”.

Destination: Dak Prescott or the last member of this tier in the fifth

QB7-12

There will usually be a lag of a round or more between the QB6 and QB7, which is likely going to be Josh Allen or Matt Ryan. None of these quarterbacks have the ceiling of the QB3-6 tier, and it’s debatable whether they have a higher ceiling than quarterbacks going after them. Names like Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Aaron Rodgers have happy fantasy memories associated with them, and Carson Wentz always appears to be knocking on the door of jumping a tier in fantasy drafts - although he has some worries about offensive line injuries now. Of this tier, you can make an argument for Allen if he improves and becomes more efficient with the addition of Stefon Diggs, Brees if he keeps up the pace he set in the second half of last season - which could be easier with Emmanuel Sanders aboard, and maybe Brady if you think joining forces with Bruce Arians supercharges his upside. I’d prefer just taking a quarterback a few rounds earlier from the QB3-6 tier to this tier, but I also won’t be surprised if one or two of them ends the season in the top 5-6.

Destination: Drew Brees in the 8th, or Tom Brady in the 9th

QB13-20

This territory of the draft is fertile for the wait on quarterback crowd. My favorite targets are Matthew Stafford, who was a solid QB1 last year before getting hurt, Ben Roethlisberger, who has established himself as a low QB1 for a long time, Cam Newton, who is a perennial top 5-10 fantasy quarterback, Ryan Tannehill, who was a top five fantasy quarterback after he took over last year, and Joe Burrow, who has the running ability, arsenal of weapons, and negative game script bump to be fantasy relevant as a rookie.

What If I Already took a Quarterback?

Take one of your favorites from this tier anyway. It accomplishes three things. First, it gives you injury insurance, bye week coverage, and coronavirus insurance. Second, it denies one of your competitors who did not take a QB1 an option that could hit and allow them to get away with it. Third, if your late round quarterback hits, you can trade your established commodity quarterback to help your team elsewhere.

Destination: Matthew Stafford or Cam Newton in the 10th, Ben Roethlisberger, Ryan Tannehill, Joe Burrow in the 11th

QB21 and beyond

There are QB1 possibilities outside of the top 20 this year, underscoring the attractiveness of a “wait on quarterback” strategy:

Teddy Bridgewater, CAR - Negative game scripts, four great targets, and an offensive coordinator (Joe Brady) who knows him from their together in New Orleans and helped make Joe Burrow the #1 pick this year.

Drew Lock, DEN - The Broncos overstocked the passing game with quality young targets

Tyrod Taylor, LAC - Running ability gives him a back door to low QB1 scoring even with low pass attempts.

Destination: 13th round or later if you need a backup or only got one of your targets from the QB13-20 tier while employing a wait on quarterback strategy.

Navigating Running Back

Running back is brutal as ever. The first round will be the most running back dominated since the old stud running back days that led to PPR scoring becoming prevalent around the industry. Because of that, the dropoff to the second round backs is steeper than usual, although like last year, the third round presents some options with upside to match the first rounders. There are some bets to overcome age, inexperience, committee backfields, or previous failures to hit in Rounds 4-6, and a mishmosh of options after that who could deliver cheap RB2 production in PPR leagues or emerge from murky backfields and situations. How should we be attacking running back this year?

Take a running back in the first round

Really. Just do it. Michael Thomas might be the exception because he so outpaced the field in 2019, but if you do that, then be ready to hit running back multiple times in rounds where wide receivers will be the more attractive options. The top 5-6 is going to be very predictable - Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Ezekiel Elliot will go 1-2-3 in almost every draft. Some combination of Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, and Dalvin Cook will probably go in the 4-7 range with Thomas often popping up there. It might be enticing to take Davante Adams over a running back at this point but then you need to ask yourself how much you like Kenyan Drake, Austin Ekeler, and Aaron Jones. Ask yourself how confident you are about your running back targets in the 3rd and 4th rounds, where wide receiver value is very compelling. Ask yourself how confident you are that you can find a running back in the fifth round or later that can become an everyweek contributor.

The next group of running backs is (in no particular order) Joe Mixon, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Nick Chubb, Josh Jacobs, and Miles Sanders. If you are picking near the end of the first round, you won’t have your pick of this tier, but you might be able to land two of them. The good news is after you take your running back in the first round, you can feel free to neglect the position for a while (even until the 7th/8th round) because you only need one hit from the rest of your running back group to put together a strong lineup. I would prioritize Mixon and Edwards-Helaire in PPR leagues, and Chubb in non-PPR. Sanders might have the highest ceiling. Jacobs has an unknown ceiling if the Raiders commit to him as a three-down back. There are good arguments for every back in this group.

What if I don’t take a running back in the first?

Option 1 is to talk yourself in Austin Ekeler, Aaron Jones, or if you’re lucky and he’s still there, Kenyan Drake in the second round. Ekeler will have a quarterback change, a low volume pass offense, and probably won’t be getting goal line carries, Jones was volatile last year, the team had no will use him in the passing game unless Davante Adams was out, and Drake was inconsistent last year and has never been a lead back for a whole season. I (and you) might find elite QB/TE options or more of a “sure thing” WR1 more attractive.

Option 2 is to target running back in the third, which is looking better than the mid-to-late second round options. Chris Carson and James Conner are proven RB1 options when healthy, even if that “when healthy” part has been a sticking point for both. Todd Gurley and Le’Veon Bell might have been in the beginning of the decline phase last year, or might have been rowing upstream against offenses that were holding them back. Jonathan Taylor has had a terrific camp and could become Derrick Henry north.

Option 3 is to gamble with multiple picks on rookies like Cam Akers, J.K. Dobbins, Antonio Gibson, and Zack Moss or boom/bust picks like David Johnson and Raheem Mostert in the mid rounds. While you will have locked in advantages at other positions over your opponents by waiting at running back, you’ll be behind the eight ball at the position if none of your aspirational mid-round picks hit and last year was the most difficult ever to find running back value on the waiver wire. One angle that could make this strategy work is coronavirus and increased injury rates causing more churn at the position than ever. If you do go this route, I’d recommend targeting at least one elite option at tight end or quarterback, if not both positions.

Destination: Taylor/Conner/Carson in the third or David Johnson in the fourth, or Mostert in the fifth, or shotgun approach upside picks after the fifth

When to Plan Your RB2 Stop - Conservative

Taking Carson/Conner as your RB2 in the third, or Taylor in the fourth (soon to be third) to lock up an RB2 with RB1 upside is the safe path at running back, which won’t require you to hit on any later running back picks to roll out two strong options every week. This might be getting more difficult with so many RB2 types seeing their value torpedoed in August, pushing up the ADP of the few options that didn't lose value.

Destination: Conner/Carson/Taylor in the 3rd, Johnson in the fourth

When to Plan Your RB2 Stop - Moderate Risk/Reward

The third and fourth rounds are so rich with wide receiver value that you might choose to kick your RB2 decision down the road a few rounds. My favorite options in this range are Raheem Mostert, who was dominating the 49ers backfield last year despite not being the ceremonial starter, and Kareem Hunt, who is good enough to be a solid RB2 in a running back friendly despite playing behind Nick Chubb. Cam Akers could also work out as a RB2 hit in the 5th/6th round range.

Destination: Mostert/Hunt/Akers in the 5th/6th

When to Plan Your RB2 Stop - Extreme Risk/Reward

If you take a running back in the first and focus on building a strong wide receiver group with a tight end and quarterback that have a good chance of being top five options, then landing a running back that is an adequate RB2 in the eighth round or later could be the coup de grace to the rest of your league. PPR scoring makes it easy to hit this draw on the river via James White, Tarik Cohen, Duke Johnson Jr, or even later Nyheim Hines or Boston Scott. Kerryon Johnson could hold off his rookie counterparts as the healthier back. Antonio Gibson and Zack Moss could make an impact in dedicated roles early and level off as reliable options with a larger role. The options abound and you can take two or three swings at the pinata and see what happens, with a midseason trade as a possibility.

Destination: Antonio Gibson/Zack Moss in the 7th, James White in the 8th, Kerryon Johnson in the 8th, Duke Johnson Jr in the 12th, Nyheim Hines in the 13th

Running back bench

Consider the list above a good starting point for running back depth and upside targets. Latavius Murray, Alexander Mattison, Chase Edmonds and Tony Pollard are the most worthy handcuffs with clarity on role and all four having displayed talent on an NFL field already. They’re good late round targets whether or not you have the starter on your roster. Dare Ogunbowale and Jerick McKinnon are good last round picks as veteran passing down backs who could end up having value beyond their initial envisioned role.

Navigating Wide Receiver

Last year was a new frontier in fantasy wide receiver scoring distribution, as outside of Michael Thomas, and to a lesser extent the Tampa receivers, Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins, and Julio Jones, there weren’t true difference makers at the position in last year. Instead, as fantasy scoring ebbed and flowed at the position, lots of teams were using receivers that weren’t drafted to be starters, hampering teams that went heavy at wide receiver early in their drafts.

As expected, this year the fantasy hive mind is pushing wide receiver down in strategies, with only 5-6 going in the first two rounds. This should affect how you approach the position as the landscape of value at the position through drafts has completely changed.

Taking your WR1 in the first two rounds

I won’t tell you that under no circumstances should you take a wide receiver in the first two rounds, but I wouldn’t recommend taking Michael Thomas until at least the 7th pick, Davante Adams until your favorites from the second tier of RB1s is exhausted, and Julio Jones/Tyreek Hill until the entire second tier of RB1s is empty. I wouldn’t take DeAndre Hopkins or Chris Godwin over a top two option at tight end or quarterback.

Taking your WR1 in the third or fourth round

This is the easy path to success this year. Let other teams take a wide receiver in the first or second round and get a player in the third or fourth round that will be much closer to their 1st/2nd round wide receiver than their QB/RB/TE will be to your first and second round picks. My favorite player in this tier is Adam Thielen, but the list of attractive targets is long.

Destination: Mike Evans, Amari Cooper in third
Destination: Adam Thielen, Allen Robinson, Odell Beckham, D.J. Moore in third/fourth

Taking your WR1 in the fifth round/Taking WR2 in the fifth round who could score like a WR1

If you want to really push it, wide receiver is deep enough to wait until the fifth round to get your WR1 when players with a reasonable chance of hitting that rank are available. Another reason to avoid overinvesting in wide receiver early is that the fifth round crop this year is full of WR1 upside. You could wait until the fourth and fifth round to take your top two receivers and still end up with two top 10-15 options.

Destination: Tyler Lockett, T.Y. Hilton, DK Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, D.J. Chark in fifth

WR2/WR3 in the sixth round

The theme should be emerging here. Some of those fifth round targets will leak through to the sixth. I haven’t even mentioned players that aren’t my preferred targets, but are still attractive at ADP like Courtland Sutton and Robert Woods. Even if none of those names are available in the sixth round, there are still players who will make waiting at wide receiver the right move this year.

Destination: DeVante Parker, Marquise Brown, Tyler Boyd in the sixth

WR3/Flex in seventh/eighth

You are STILL going to like the names available at wide receiver in the 7th/8th, when you are usually starting to stock your bench. This range of the draft gives you a shot at landing Deshaun Watson’s #1 receiver or pick from a plethora of productive #2 receivers who have already produced like fantasy WR2s.

Destination: Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, Michael Gallup, Julian Edelman

The road goes on forever

Instead of continuing to say “wide receiver is really really deep this year and you should break ties against wide receivers while you are drafting, i’ll just list targets for each round to give you an idea of how far you can go and still find possible contributors.

9th/10th Round Destination: Diontae Johnson, Marvin Jones, Emmanuel Sanders, Christian Kirk, John Brown, Mecole Hardman
11th/12th Round Destination: Sterling Shepard, Golden Tate, Jamison Crowder, Preston Williams, Sammy Watkins, Curtis Samuel, Bryan Edwards
13th/14th Round Destination: Anthony Miller, Robby Anderson, Desean Jackson, Brandon Aiyuk, Allen Lazard
15th Round and Later Destination: Randall Cobb, Corey Davis, Larry Fitzgerald, Parris Campbell, James Washington, Auden Tate

It’s conceivable that a wide receiver group built from these lists could be competitive in fantasy leagues this year. There are plenty of names I didn’t list here that might be on your target list. Trust in your ability to find fantasy relevant receivers late in your drafts.

Navigating Tight End

Another year passed and we are stuck in the same Groundhog Day tight end board. A few reliable options, a few options that will be great if, and a bunch of aspirational later picks, most of which will underperform expectations, but the promise of the one or two that hit every year will keep us coming back.

Taking your tight end in the second round

If you, like me, don’t love the options at wide receiver or running back in the second round, you might pivot to the newly paid Travis Kelce and George Kittle. Kelce is the surer thing, but Kittle’s injury last year concealed the upside to pass Kelce this year, especially with Deebo Samuel likely missing the beginning of the season. Either one will do in the second.

Destination: Kelce or Kittle in the second

Taking your tight end in the fourth round

If someone wants to take Mark Andrews or Zach Ertz over the strong wide receiver and running back value in the third, let them. If they don’t consider either or both to get a big advantage at the position. Andrews could explode this year with Hayden Hurst gone, and Ertz will still likely be the leading receiver for the Eagles with the wide receiver group looking shaky once again.

Destination: Ertz or Andrews in the fourth

TE5-8 Doldrums

If you aren’t going early tight end, you might as well wait and go late tight end. The next group will require Evan Engram to stay healthy, Darren Waller to be a cut above a much improved wide receiver group, Hunter Henry to defy a Tyrod Taylor/Justin Herbert pass offense (possible in light of how often Taylor targeted Charles Clay in Buffalo), or Rob Gronkowski to turn back the clock. It’s possible, but there are tight ends available a round or more later that offer upside at a discount.

TE9-10

Jared Cook was a top five option last year when he and Drew Brees were both healthy. Tyler Higbee was the TE1 down the stretch while Gerald Everett was hurt. You can get either one as one of the last TE1s on the board and have upside to match almost everyone who took a tight end before you. I prefer Higbee, but won’t talk you out of Cook.

Destination: Higbee in the ninth

TE11-16 and TE17-25 - Get one while they last!

Everyone should have a tight end from this tier or the next tier on their roster, no matter when or if they took a top 10 tight end. Last year Mark Andrews and Darren Waller came from outside of the top 10 to save teams that waited on tight end. Even if you took Travis Kelce in the second round, taking your favorite tight end in the tier that generally goes off of the board in the 10th-12th round range or your favorite tight end in the tier that goes off of the board in the 13th round or later will help you have injury/bye/covid coverage, trade bait, and perhaps more importantly deny one of your rivals a chance to eat up a significant part of your advantage at tight end at a deep discount.

TE11-16 Destination: Hayden Hurst, Mike Gesicki, Dallas Goedert

TE17-25 Destination: Jonnu Smith, Blake Jarwin, Irv Smith

Navigating Kicker

Are leagues still using kicker in fantasy lineups? I’m willing to defend it, and not just because I cover the position for our team and training camp reports. Kicker as a reason that a matchup is won or lost is cruel, random, and senseless… and something that happens in the NFL most weeks.

Wait until the last round to take your kicker and get one of these underrated options:

Younghoe Koo, Atlanta
Chris Boswell, Pittsburgh
Matt Prater, Detroit

Navigating Defense/Special Teams

Streaming is the best approach here, so we’re looking at Week 1 matchups and avoiding defenses that have a top 6 ADP, rendering them unlikely to be there in the next to last round.

Destination:

Indianapolis - Your clear #1. Start with Jacksonville and could be an elite unit with the addition of DeForest Buckner and youth everywhere.

Los Angeles Chargers - Joe Burrow is going to be good, but maybe not in the first game of his career.

Las Vegas - They draw an overhauled Panthers team in Week 1. Watch the Russell Okung situation closely to see if the Panthers will have the stalwart left tackle they traded a Pro Bowl guard (Trai Turner) for this offseason.

Sample Drafts