This article is about a 10-minute read.
The series:
- Draft Strategy with an Early 1st-Round Pick
- Draft Strategy with a Middle 1st-Round Pick
- Draft Strategy with a Late 1st-Round Pick
How you begin a draft can alter the entire composition of your roster. And where you pick in the first round can make all the difference in your early-draft strategy.
Let's talk about your game plan when you have a middle pick in the first round. How do you prefer to start a draft when you pick between the 1.05 and 1.08 spots? Do you map out your first few picks? What do you like your roster to look like when drafting from this area of Round 1?
Chad Parsons
While missing out of the top tier (generally) of players in Round 1, strategically I love being in the middle of the round as a macro draft position. The wait is minimized and positional runs are less likely to truly bite you on a round-to-round basis.
Round 1 is the lone spot of the draft where you can be on the outside looking in depending on your top targets. I have a decent drop beyond Saquon Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott among running backs, so they are likely gone and Alvin Kamara could be gone as well by the mid-1st. The WR1 could be available as a pivot in 1QB formats and the mid-1st is a good spot in superflex as two or three quarterbacks will be in the top half of Round 1 mix to elongate the window to get a top running back or a top quarterback is another pivot option.
Being in the middle of the round is ideal by the mid-rounds of the draft especially if waiting on quarterback and tight end specifically with less of a wait between selections if working on a shortlist of ideal targets.
Jason Wood
Picking in the middle of the draft this year feels suboptimal, based on the way my early industry drafts and best-ball leagues have gone. The running back run continues, but I think there's a huge falloff and/or increase in bust potential with the backs in the first round beyond McCaffrey, Elliott, and Barkley. I'm most comfortable targeting Michael Thomas or Davante Adams in those spots and then trusting my projections to let the draft unfold from there. If I do take a receiver in the first round, given the depth at the position I'm likely passing on another receiver until the fifth round at the earliest. And I cannot imagine going without a running back through three rounds, so it's a goal to grab one at value. The trick this year is that Travis Kelce and George Kittle are justifiably exciting second-round picks. But it's hard to take either of them if you take a receiver in the first round.
Andy Hicks
This is the sweet spot of a draft and an ideal location if you are in formats that can have runs at certain position groups. Unless the scoring system heavily favors tight ends and quarterbacks they shouldn’t enter your thought process in round one. In the second and third rounds, the elite options are well worth considering. For your first pick, you would be looking at the second tier of running backs, Michael Thomas or another receiver. If you are extremely lucky you could get the option of one of the top four running backs at pick five.
In a perfect world, I would look at coming out of here with two running backs and two wide receivers, but in the heart of the draft, you need to be adaptable as the best player available option often has many players unexpectedly sliding to you.
Jordan McNamara
The middle of the round requires a roster strategy different than the early portion of the round. Michael Thomas is a great foundational piece at wide receiver that would be tough for me to pass on in this range. While there are some narratives that zero-RB is dead, the precise time to execute a contrarian strategy is when it is contrarian. The 2020 season strikes me as that time. With the elite running backs going quickly off the board in early rounds, locking in a WR1 can allow you to shrink your wide receiver roster spots to starting lineup minimum plus one reserve. By doing this, you can transition to running backs deeper in the draft with one injury away types while others fill in their wide receiver depth charts. If I was doing this approach, I'd use a modified zero-RB strategy, selecting one in the first three rounds, with the likes of Nick Chubb and Josh Jacobs targets in the second round range according to early ADP.
Jeff Haseley
Jason brings up an excellent point about possible busts of first-round running backs outside of McCaffrey, Barkley, and Elliott...and I would add Kamara and Henry to that list as well. We generally see a 50-60% return rate of running backs into the top 10 over the previous year. That's high. That's really high. Taking a wide receiver in the first round, like Michael Thomas or Davante Adams may be a better, more sound move, especially if the level of production from a second-round running back is close to that of a first-round back minus the ones mentioned above.
I'm on board with the first-round wide receiver if McCaffrey, Barkley, Elliott, Kamara, and Henry are off the board. My first choice would be Michael Thomas, followed by Davante Adams. The second-round running backs available are generally the ones who replace those from the previous year who fall out of the top 10. Kenyan Drake, Josh Jacobs particularly are backs who I target in the second round, who could both finish in the top 10 by year's end.
Getting your core running backs and wide receivers are the first priority and the rest is selecting the best player available while being sure to grab a quarterback and viable tight end. Having a middle draft slot is good for targeting players and not necessarily needing to worry too much about being on the wrong end of a draft run, particularly quarterbacks or tight ends.
Phil Alexander
I'm still going running back here. Until Dalvin Cook's contract situation is settled, Clyde Edwards-Helaire is my guy at 1.05. He's not a lock to touch the ball 300 times, but he should see at least 260, with about 60 of those coming on receptions in the league's best passing offense.
From here, my strategy is mostly the same as it was from the 1.01-1.04 slots. I'm usually coming out of the first three rounds with at least two running backs, targeting wide receivers in Rounds 4-6, stacking a couple of tight end breakout candidates in hopes one hits, and waiting on quarterback until the Carson Wentz/Matthew Stafford tier.
Jeff Pasquino
My personal preference here is to take a top-notch running back, and I believe that there is more than one option after the Top 4 go off the board. Both Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry are solid early options, and I think Henry should be there at almost any point all the way to Pick 9. I tend to agree with Jason about the suboptimal nature of a later first-round pick, but the plus side is that you draft earlier in Round 2 and have better chances to take value as it falls to you, round by round. As such, I would expect to take a running back in Round 1, a tight end in Round 2, and then target WR1 and RB2 in Rounds 3 and 4. A start of Henry/Travis Kelce/Adam Thielen/Chris Carson feels like a very solid and safe start with plenty of flexibility to address more running backs and wide receiver values as they fall to me. In addition, a pick in the middle avoids the possibility of a run on a position between picks - but I would still look at the rest of the teams' needs to see what positions are more likely to be targeted (especially at quarterback) as the draft progresses. I would not be upset at all in a middle-round pick this year, given the depth at wide receiver and the clear path to getting a top-two tight end.
Bob Henry
If I have the fifth pick, I'm taking either Dalvin Cook or Alvin Kamara. If I have the sixth pick, it's going to be Michael Thomas. After that, it's a running back whether I bite the bullet and take Clyde Edwards Helaire, Derrick Henry, Kenyan Drake, or Joe Mixon. I admittedly flip-flop on Drake and Mixon as both have the upside to finish among the top half of the RB1s.
As I've said previously, I tend to trust my board over the next several rounds, but if Travis Kelce remains available, my pick might as well be a fait accompli. I'll gladly take RB-RB if I can grab Miles Sanders or Josh Jacobs. Otherwise, I'm looking for one of the next three receivers (Davante Adams, Julio Jones or Tyreek Hill) or George Kittle.
Venturing into the third, I'll definitely consider Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes II if I'm picking closer to 3.08 than 3.05, otherwise, I'm focusing mainly on RB/WRs here (James Conner, Allen Robinson, Amari Cooper).
Into the fourth and fifth, I've probably selected my RB1, RB2, possibly a TE and/or QB, so I'm focusing on a receiver (D.J. Moore, Ridley, Woods, Lockett, Metcalf) or if I still need an RB2 than it's likely David Johnson or Le'Veon Bell in the fourth, or Raheem Mostert in the fifth.
Andrew Davenport
I am of the opinion that I do not want to be in the middle of the first round this year. The options are similar and I find it difficult to parse between them. Michael Thomas and Davante Adams are elite wide receivers but they play a position that is incredibly deep for our purposes. Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry have their blemishes but both of them play a scarce position and are elite themselves.
Having said that, I think my favorite rosters have come from getting Thomas or Adams in this spot and then making sure to grab two running backs with my next two picks. Unlike the top of the round selection (picks 1 to 4), there is a spot in the middle of the third where any of the running backs there - Todd Gurley, Leonard Fournette, LeVeon Bell, James Conner, etc. - are perfect for that position. I'm not too hung up on which one, just that I'll get one of them as my RB2.
So if at all possible I'm taking Thomas or Adams, then in the second round hoping one of Kenyan Drake, Miles Sanders, Nick Chubb, or Josh Jacobs falls to me as my RB1. If the top option in the second round is Aaron Jones I'd probably take him because I have to, but I would rather have one of the other guys there.
In the third round then, as mentioned, I'm grabbing whatever my favorite running back is that's still left and has a workhorse role waiting for him. After that, I think the draft should go somewhat the same from any position. I will be hammering the wide receiver spot for a couple of rounds to load up on that juicy tier in rounds four to six. If a running back I want falls to me that's fine, but I'm mainly looking wide receiver for the next few.
There is a variation on this that is possible as well, and that's that I draw the 1.08 and end up not getting Adams or Thomas at all. At that point, I'd be fine with Dalvin Cook or Derrick Henry. I am absolutely a huge fan of Cook, but in the first round, he makes me nervous with his history. Henry doesn't make me nervous so much as I feel as though he has some bust potential with how reliant he is on touchdowns and the Titans offensive efficiency (and the obvious issue with his lack of passing game work). That's why I don't like the middle of the first round. It is Adams or Thomas by a wide margin for me in this spot, and then RB-RB-WR is the usual way my draft unfolds after that.
David Dodds
My board after McCaffrey, Barkley, Elliott, and Kamara are off on the board looks like this:
- 1.05 - Michael Thomas
- 1.06 - Dalvin Cook
- 1.07 - Derrick Henry
- 1.08 - Davante Adams
- 1.09 - Tyreek Hill
Since I value the wide receiver position a bit more than my colleagues here, I generally get Michael Thomas with this range of picks. I am ok with a safe 1st round choice while picking from the middle because I am in a position to dominate value the rest of the draft.
On the wrap-around, I am looking for value at the running back position. Here are the players at ADP greater than 14 that are usually available to me:
- RB Miles Sanders (Value = 12, ADP =15)
- RB Nick Chubb (Value = 13, ADP = 16)
- TE Travis Kelce, KC (Value = 15, ADP = 17)
- RB Aaron Jones, GB (Value = 17, ADP = 21)
I am not opposed to going RB/RB or WR/WR with your first two picks, but the value of being in the middle is to create a flexible roster build. That is best accomplished by going RB/WR or WR/RB with your first two selections. If a ridiculous run on running backs happens later in the draft, you want to be able to pivot to WR/TE because you have a balanced early roster build.
My best drafts from the middle slots simply avoid Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes II. Someone will take these players in the third round at the latest and then be chasing the running back and the wide receiver runs the entire draft.
If you miss out on the two elite tight ends (Kelce/Kittle) which happens to me most of the time, simply wait until the ninth round or later to start adding tight ends.
I like to continue to add running backs and wide receivers in the third through sixth rounds with the goal of having three of each by round six.
Values with ADP greater than 30 that should be available in the third and fourth rounds:
- WR Amari Cooper, DAL (Value = 26, ADP = 34)
- WR Allen Robinson, CHI (Value = 27, ADP = 30)
- RB LeVeon Bell, NYJ (Value = 29, ADP = 31)
- RB David Johnson, HOU (Value = 33, ADP = 37)
- WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (Value = 34, ADP = 39)
- WR Calvin Risley, ATL (Value = 37, ADP = 44)
- WR Cooper Kupp, LAR (Value = 38, ADP = 41)
- WR A.J. Brown, TEN (Value = 39, ADP = 43)
