“League winner” is a term thrown around a lot, but what exactly makes a league winner?
A top talent
In an offense set up to convert that talent into the maximum possible production
I didn’t mention opportunity, because opportunity can be fluid as the season progresses. Injuries, reevaluation of the depth chart, and changes in personnel or coaching can present very different situations than the ones we expected when setting preseason ranks and projections.
Think of it as gasoline (surrounding situation) and matches (talent/ability). Even if the gasoline and matches are far apart right now, events can intervene to move them close enough to ignite the fire. What we should be identifying now are the players that represent an explosion of fantasy points if the matches and gasoline get in contact. Even if the events necessary seem remote in possibility at this juncture, only a small percentage of players have season-changing ceilings. While those events could be unlikely, we see unlikely scenarios unfold every single season. The good news is that because most, if not all fantasy players see the best-case scenario as improbable, if not impossible, a lot of potential league winners are available after you use your premium picks.
Who are the potential league winners available outside of the top 50 picks?
Mecole Hardman, WR, KC (ADP: 10th round or later)
Hardman turned 41 targets into 538 yards and six touchdowns last year. He was also a rookie who only converted to wide receiver two years before entering the league. Patrick Mahomes II missed two games and most of a third. Hardman should be much more prepared to play wide receiver in the NFL this year, and he has the best deep passing quarterback in the league. It would take a Sammy Watkins or Tyreek Hill injury to really unlock Hardman’s upside, but if he comes into the season a better player than the one we saw last year, he could get part of the way there himself. We’ve already seen Watkins perform with maddening inconsistency, and teams are going to try to take away Hill (and Travis Kelce), leaving Hardman with one of the best matchups on the field. Hardman doesn’t need to be a full-time player or get more than five targets a game to get well over 1000 receiving yards and double-digit touchdowns.
Damien Williams, RB, KC (ADP: 7th round or later)
Williams had trouble staying healthy last year, but his effectiveness in the Chiefs offense is well-proven. They love using him in the red zone, and he delivered six touchdowns in the postseason. Even if Clyde Edwards-Helaire gets more touches and snaps than Williams this year, Williams could get the majority of the touchdowns and remain an every-week RB2, which would make him a value at ADP. Edwards-Helaire could fall victim to an injury or just wear down in his first NFL season, leaving Williams as the more frequently used and valuable back in December, when fantasy championships are won and lost. Williams has demonstrated too much value and the Chiefs offense is too good for him to be this cheap.
Ceedee Lamb, Michael Gallup, WR, DAL (ADP: Gallup 6th/7th round, Lamb 8th-10th)
Let’s handle this duo together. Amari Cooper is obviously the highest-paid receiver on the Cowboys and the highest-drafted in fantasy leagues by a huge margin, but do last year’s numbers back that up. It might shock you to see the second half numbers for Cowboys receivers projected over a whole season:
Amari Cooper: 124 targets, 74 receptions, 976 yards, 4 touchdowns
Michael Gallup: 132 targets, 74 receptions, 1306 yards, 8 touchdowns
Randall Cobb: 90 targets, 60 receptions, 1108 yards, 4 touchdowns
Cooper was nursing a knee injury over that stretch and projects to a 1400 yard, 12 touchdown receiver on first half of the season numbers, but what evidence do we have that he will get through a season without some sort of nick or bump that affects his play (or worse)?
The bottom line here is that Gallup and Lamb can both be every-week starters in a three-wide receiver lineup, which alone justifies taking one or both of them at ADP. If Cooper struggles in any way, both could be fantasy WR1s. This should also remind you to target Cobb in the late rounds. He could have been included on this list in light of Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks’ injury history.
Tony Pollard, RB, DAL (ADP: 12th round or later)
Ezekiel Elliott is one of the most durable backs in the league, but no one is immune from injuries (although Elliott could have coronavirus immunity, stay tuned). Pollard has already proven to be an explosive player in his rookie year and the Cowboys offense should be one of the most potent for fantasy in the league. There’s always a chance of value without an Elliott injury if other passing game pieces miss time or if Pollard’s talent pops in a way that makes him irresistible to play-callers.
J.K. Dobbins, RB, BAL (ADP: 5th round or later)
Dobbins is one of the two most expensive players on this list, with a small projected workload and therefore is probably the least attractive player on this list. The Ravens running game doesn’t yield a huge production pie to divide up and even though Mark Ingram had five receiving scores last year, they don’t use their running backs often as their receivers. Ingram (and Gus Edwards and Justice Hill) are obstacles, but Ingram has been known to miss time due to injury, and he also had a four-game performance-enhancing drug suspension in 2018. The best case for Dobbins to hit is that he represents a confluence of talent and situation that could produce the most chunk plays and long touchdowns of any back in the league. If Dobbins breaks a long touchdown Week 1 vs Cleveland, how can the team only give him six to eight touches the following week? He will be running against light boxes that are stressed in multiple directions because of Lamar Jackson and young targets on the rise at every position.
Marquise Brown, WR, BAL (ADP: 6th round or later)
Brown made a splash in Week 1 and Week 2, but his production was inconsistent after that. He was never 100% healthy after offseason foot surgery, and he had the stabilizing screw removed from his foot this offseason. We haven’t seen the best of Brown and the most exciting kind of player to draft is the one with unknown upside. A full-speed Brown with Lamar Jackson putting defenses in binds could easily produce at the same rate as Tyreek Hill and be a strong WR1 worth a top 15 pick in hindsight.
Kareem Hunt, RB, CLE (ADP: 5th round or later)
Hunt was a consistent PPR RB2 last year after he returned, almost always scoring in double digits. He might see a small reduction in his target share from last year, especially with a healthy Odell Beckham, but Hunt will be in an offense that is designed to maximize the value of his talent/abilities in the same way it made Dalvin Cook shine last year. Of course, Nick Chubb is first in line to soak up that surplus value created, but again, no one is immune from injury, especially at running back. Hunt should be able to justify his ADP with his workload by design. Browns wide receivers coach Chad O'Shea recently raised the possibility that he could be the #3 receiver, and confirmed that Hunt has been in some passing game meetings. We all know Hunt as the starter in this offense would be a top 8-10 overall pick in fantasy leagues with a top-three upside.
Terry McLaurin, WR, WAS (ADP: 6th round or later)
McLaurin’s year-end numbers of 58-919-7 aren’t exactly eye-popping (unless you factor in that he was a third-round rookie), but when you factor that he missed two games and played with Case Keenum and a rookie Dwayne Haskins, it becomes clear that 1200+ yards and double-digit scores are well within reach this year if Haskins improves. McLaurin’s output was already trending up at the end of the year.
DeVante Parker, WR, MIA (ADP: 6th round or later)
Fantasy players have been burned too many times by Parker to fully buy in to his 2019 breakout, but his depressed ADP is going a bit too far. There is some uncertainty in his profile with Tua Tagovailoa looming over Ryan Fitzpatrick, the quarterback that helped Parker find his game, but Tagovailoa is one of the most advanced rookie passer among first-round picks in recent memory. Just how good was Parker in the second half of the year? His stats from games 9-16 project out to 88-1604-10 over a full season, good enough to finish as the #2 overall receiver by a large margin.
A.J. Green, WR, CIN (ADP: 6th round or later)
Out of sight, out of mind? Green was going a little earlier than his 2020 ADP last year after his injury. It appears fantasy players are writing off Green’s ability to stay healthy at this point in his career. While that seems reasonable in light of him playing only nine games in the last two years, it should be pointed out that his stats from those nine games project out to 81-1233-10. Now add in that he is playing with Joe Burrow, who could end up being the best quarterback he has played with in his career, and there’s reason to believe that Green could return to the WR1 tier in fantasy leagues, and will surely be projected as a top 20 option any time he is healthy.