A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. This article specifically targets deep sleeper value (players that can be found very late in a fantasy draft). In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look deeper than the Top 150 and identify players that should significantly outperform their late draft position. These players should be your targets after the 12th round of your draft.
They gave us 11 names. That's a lot, especially at tight end.
If you want all of the players, keep on reading. If you just want the top vote-getter, that guy is Blake Jarwin with six votes. Four tight ends tied for second with five votes each.
NOTE: We know all these different opinions can be a lot. And certainly, not everyone agrees on everything.
If you want to cut straight to the chase and get our "Bottom Line" for where we project every player right down to the last yard, you can see that here. That's our Bottom Line and where we plant the Footballguys Flag for all these players.
If you'd like to see more detail about how the staff sees different players, here is every wide receiver who was mentioned and the reasons why.
Player Receiving 6 Votes
Blake Jarwin, Dallas
Phil Alexander: How is it mid-August and we still have to list Jarwin as a deep sleeper? He's been efficient with his targets since entering the league and the market is underrating his ability to command volume in a seemingly crowded offense. Even if you pencil CeeDee Lamb in for 100 targets in year-one (17 more than Randall Cobb had last year), there is still room for Jarwin to command at least 100 of his own -- a threshold reached by only four tight ends in 2019. Jason Witten leaves behind 83 targets from last season, and Jarwin earned 41 of his own. Assuming the offensive pie stays about the same size for Dallas this year, Jarwin stands to keep his own volume and soak up most of Witten’s. Besides proven efficiency, Jarwin has plus-athleticism, the trust of his quarterback and coaching staff, and is stepping into a target void. The fact he barely gets drafted inside the top-20 at the position is criminal. Draft this man.
Sigmund Bloom: This one is elementary. Jarwin was highly efficient on a limited number of targets last year - only Jared Cook had a higher percentage of 20+ yard plays among tight ends. Jason Witten is gone, which frees up 83 targets. If Jarwin captures only half of them, he'll be at 82 targets for the year. Defenses are going to be preoccupied with stopping the running game and strong trio of receivers, leaving the middle of the field open for Jarwin, which Mike McCarthy has already noted. The Cowboys believe in Jarwin, signing him to a four-year, $22 million deal in the offseason.
Andrew Davenport: The lack of respect for Jarwin in drafts has to be because people don't think he can carve out a role behind the Dallas receiving trio and Ezekiel Elliott. Otherwise, all things point to Jarwin being ready to take the next step as a tight end and as a fantasy producer. His athleticism is elite, he plays on a great offense, and the leading target hog at the position has left town. He only saw 41 targets last year, but he ranked 6th in the NFL in yards per target which was just behind Travis Kelce, and ahead of guys considered to be big-play threats like Mark Andrews and Hunter Henry. Those projecting him to struggle for targets are not accounting for the fact that Jason Witten, the 37-year-old slow-footed veteran, turned 83 targets into an 11th place PPR finish last season. Jarwin's ability at this point in his career is far superior to Witten's. So the only question is, can Jarwin expect to command the same market share as Witten and do more with the targets? The answer to both is a fairly easy yes. Take a shot on Jarwin in a dynamic offense.
Ryan Hester: It's hard to expand any more on what Phil said about Jarwin. The athleticism is there, the projected volume is there, and the high-powered offense is there. Jarwin should "bottom out" at 80-90 targets and a handful of touchdowns.
Dan Hindery: Jarwin may be behind the top three receivers in the pecking order for targets, but if Dallas passes for nearly 5,000 yards again, Jarwin should be fine. He is a strong athlete who has shown good speed down the seam and has developed a nice rapport with Dak Prescott. Of the tight ends being drafted late, Jarwin is one of the top breakout candidates and he has a decent floor as well given how good the Dallas offense should be.
Jason Wood: Jarwin is by no means guaranteed success, but that's why he's available late as a sleeper. Although he'll be fighting for targets behind Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and CeeDee Lamb, the passing offense is prolific enough to support a fantasy viable tight end, too. Mike McCarthy loves to throw the ball, and that won't change in Dallas regardless of Ezekiel Elliott. The new head coach specifically commented about how valuable deep seam routes are in his system, and said Jarwin is perfectly suited to them.
Players Receiving 5 Votes
Eric Ebron, Pittsburgh
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