Plenty has been made of the late-round quarterback strategy in fantasy football. This article isn't an attempt to reinvent the wheel but rather to summarize those principles and discuss why a quarterback's low-end outcome isn't relevant to his draft stock. And here are the reasons why.
- Positional Scarcity
- Flat Scoring Distribution at Quarterback
- Quarterback is a Predictable Position
- Quarterback is a Replaceable Position
Please note that all assumptions in this article are based on typical league setups (i.e. one-quarterback leagues with 18 or fewer roster spots).
Bizarro World: Quarterbacks Aren't Important (The Positional Scarcity Argument)
Here are the starting players in a 12-team fantasy league vs. how many available NFL starters there are at each position.
| Position | Fantasy Starters | NFL Starters* |
| QB | 12 | 24 |
| RB | 24-36 | 48 |
| WR | 36-48 | 52 |
* The "NFL Starters" column assumes that certain passing offenses aren't palatable in typical leagues (hence the reduction from 32 at quarterback and 64 at receiver) and makes assumptions that committee/third-down running backs are fantasy relevant (thus, a number greater than 32).
At the risk of over-simplifying things, which position seems least important? Now, here are the same numbers presented in a non-football way. Let's say you're hosting a barbecue, and your grocery list consists of 12 sides and 30 hamburgers. Your local grocery store is running out of stock as you and 11 other people enter the store. Which of the following are you going to pick up first?
- 12 sides when 30 are available
- 30 burgers when only 48 are available
Apologies to any vegetarians out there, but even a non-meat eater should understand the supply and demand here.
Takeaway: fantasy leagues require fewer quarterbacks starters while more are available, making it a position with high supply and low demand.
Average vs. Bad: What's the Difference? (The Flat Scoring Distribution Argument)
Below is a chart of quarterback scoring over the past three seasons from QB1 to QB20.
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Note: the QB8, QB12, and QB16 data points have been enlarged for emphasis.
Below is a similar chart showing running backs and wide receivers (2018 only or else the chart would be too busy).
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The drop-offs from average starter to bench/waiver wire player are noticeably sharper at the flex-eligible positions.
| Positional Ranking | Fantasy Points per Game Delta |
| QB 4 to QB 12 | -3.2 |
| QB 4 to QB 20 | -5.4 |
| RB 4 to RB 24 | -11.3 |
| RB 8 to RB 48 | -13.5 |
| WR 4 to WR 24 | -7.0 |
| WR 8 to WR 48 | -9.4 |
The difference between a high-end starter at quarterback (QB4) and a quarterback who shouldn't even be rostered (QB20) is only 5.4 fantasy points per game. Conversely, the drop-off from a middling RB1 (RB8) to a bench player (RB48) is 13.5 fantasy points per game.
Takeaway: not only is quarterback scoring flat, but scoring at the other positions drops off drastically.
Look Into My Crystal Ball (The Predictability Argument)
In projecting backs and receivers each week, factors such as game script and individual Xs-and-Os matchups must be considered. But quarterbacks are playing against an entire defense. And bad passing defenses are both identifiable and exploitable. There's a reason why DFS experts recommend cheap quarterbacks each week in cash games and certain quarterback-receiver stacks in tournaments.
The correlation between matchup and production at quarterback is stronger than the other fantasy football positions. And quarterbacks have insulated volume. Very rarely in today's NFL will a team pass fewer than 25 times per game.
Takeaway: of all fantasy football positions, quarterback is the easiest to predict on a week-to-week basis.
Changing Quarterbacks Like Underwear (The Replaceable Production Argument)
Quarterback scoring is flat, quarterbacks are predictable, but why is the title of the article "Upside Only?" Because the most fun part of drafting quarterbacks is the safety that comes with the best backup quarterback in fantasy football history: the waiver wire.
Last season, I wrote a weekly column called Rent-a-Quarterback in which I offered quarterback selections rostered in fewer than 60% of fantasy leagues. Let's take a look at some facts and figures:
| Description | Fantasy Points per Game |
| 2016-2018 QB9 | 21.8 |
| 2018 Rent-a-Quarterback (final results here) | 21.3 |
| 2016-2018 QB12 | 20.8 |
| 2016-2018 QB16 | 20.2 |
Last year's waiver wire smorgasbord nearly matched the average QB9 over the past three seasons. And that includes three or four selections each week. Had the crop been narrowed down to the best two each week, the average would have increased to 23.9 fantasy points per game, just a shade below the average 2016-2018 QB4 (24.0).
Takeaway: there's no need to worry about a quarterback "busting" as a draft pick. The production of an average starter is available for free.
The Takeaways
- Quarterback is a position with high supply and low demand.
- Quarterback scoring is flat; scoring at the flex-eligible positions drops off drastically.
- Quarterback is the easiest of all positions to predict on a week-to-week basis.
- The waiver wire is a viable contingency plan at quarterback.
The main theme of this article isn't to draft a quarterback late. It's to remove the player's floor from your evaluation and only consider his upside.
Drafting any quarterback who doesn't have top-three upside is a wasted pick. And the earlier the pick is made, the greater the ramifications to the rest of the roster (i.e. the benefit lost of selecting a flex-eligible player in an earlier round). When a quarterback selected late realizes his high-end outcome, the fantasy GMs who rostered him have a significant advantage over their leaguemates.
Actionable Advice
So who are this year's best upside picks at quarterback? Below are the best candidates to emerge into every-week starters, listed in order of current average draft position.
- Cam Newton - He has shown overall QB1 upside before. Should be healthy enough to attack deep this season.
- Kyler Murray - Passing volume, rushing upside, and a potential learning curve for opposing defenses early.
- Dak Prescott - He was the QB9 in fantasy points per game last season after Amari Cooper joined him. His early-season schedule is softer than Quilted Northern.
- Lamar Jackson - The ultimate "huge upside, disastrous downside" play, Jackson is the only quarterback after QB10 with overall QB1 in his range of outcomes. He could break fantasy football this season.
Other Opinions and Strategies
For more individual player analysis, quarterback strategy in different league types, and all things quarterback-themed here at Footballguys, click here.
Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail hester@footballguys.com
