2019 Target-Avoid Fantasy Football Quarterbacks

The NFL preseason is in full force and the 2019 fantasy football season is right around the corner. One of the big advantages of Footballguys.com is a large database of staff rankings. This series looks at the difference between the collaborative Footballguys staff rankings and myfantasyleague.com positional ADP (Average Draft Position) at the skill positions. In this edition: quarterbacks.

QUARTERBACKS TO TARGET

Cam Newton

• QB7 Ranking
• QB9 ADP
• Why: Newton has finished QB5 and QB8 over the past two seasons in aWORP (combining fantasy start rate and production, Adjusted Wins Over Replacement Player) and has his injury recovery this offseason baked into his draft position. Newton's weapons are developing (Year 2 for potential breakout D.J. Moore, Year 3 for Curtis Samuel, Year 2 for Ian Thomas) and Greg Olsen returns as Carolina makes Newton's passing production easier with yards-after-the-catch than earlier in his career. Newton remains a threat to run for 50+ yards and a touchdown any given week.

Jared Goff

• QB11 Ranking
• QB14 ADP
• Why: Goff finished as the QB6 in aWORP in 2018 and features an all-star collection of weapons and optimized Sean McVay system, yet the fantasy population is fading Goff within a deep position to QB14. Goff is one of the billboard sign reasons to wait on a quarterback in 2019 drafts.

Ben Roethlisberger

• QB13 Ranking
• QB16 ADP
• Why: Antonio Brown and LeVeon Bell are gone and Roethlisberger's ADP has taken a hit from a year ago. However, James Conner replicated Bell's role in the offense, JuJu Smith-Schuster has been a historic producer to-date in this career, and Donte Moncrief and James Washington look up to the task of filling the WR2/3 spots. Vance McDonald has the look of a career year in the works and Roethlisberger has finished in the top-10 of quarterback aWORP, including QB3 last season, each of the past three years.

Joe Flacco

• QB29 Ranking
• QB33 ADP
• Why: Flacco has a weapons upgrade with his move to Denver, centering around Emmanuel Sanders, Courtland Sutton, and Noah Fant. Flacco was QB22 in aWORP last season before Baltimore shifted to Lamar Jackson for the remainder of the year after Flacco's injury. Flacco is a deep league special, particularly for best-ball and super-flex drafts in 2019.

QUARTERBACKS TO AVOID

Jameis Winston

• QB14 Ranking
• QB10 ADP
• Why: The biggest risk with Winston is his job security after being on-and-off the field in 2018 as part of a Tampa Bay rotation. 2019 is a critical year for Winston, the final season under contract with the Buccaneers. The weapons are solid and Bruce Arians, ideally, unlocks better consistency from Winston. That said, Winston notably has a higher ADP than Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff, Ben Roethlisberger, and Drew Brees.

Tom Brady

• QB20 Ranking
• QB15 ADP
• Why: Brady was QB16 in aWORP last season and signs are pointing to a more run-heavy attack in 2019 with Sony Michel and adding Damien Harris on Day 2 this offseason. Also, no Rob Gronkowski takes away one of Brady's long-time security blankets. Brady had a mere one high impact aWORP game last season and three others of moderate import as he did not differentiate from his fantasy positional peers.

Jimmy Garoppolo

• QB22 Ranking
• QB19 ADP
• Why: Garoppolo has yet to translate the pre-New England departure hype into matching fantasy impact. Garoppolo was QB20 in aWORP last season and the weapons, while San Francisco has added to them over the past two offseasons, is a collection of question marks. The 49ers lack a true No.1 receiver (a group of potential WR2/3 types), Tevin Coleman has yet to be a lead back in his career, and George Kittle is a regression candidate in 2019 based on his yards-per-game and per-reception unless he is, in fact, the next Rob Gronkowski.

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