Is there a rookie running back with great talent but stuck in a bad situation? The bad situation could be anything from a bad coaching staff to being behind an entrenched starter to having subpar surrounding talent.
Jason Wood
Darrell Henderson landed with a great offensive coaching staff and has a window if Todd Gurley's knee acts up. But Henderson would have been an instant, every-down starter on a lot of teams and now has to bide his time behind one of the league's best (and highest-paid) tailbacks. Damien Harris is the other choice here, as he goes to a Patriots team with Sony Michel -- who established himself as arguably the most productive running back of the Bill Belichick era last year.
Daniel Simpkins
Miles Sanders qualifies. He has the potential to be a three-down back with more development, but he went to an offense that prefers to deploy a committee backfield. Some will argue that they’ve never had a back that they could deploy in this way and that could be true. Late career Darren Sproles, oft-injured Ryan Matthews, and Jay Ajayi with a bone-on-bone knee condition may be the closest players this regime has ever had to backs with three-down potential. We will see if the Eagles depart from an approach that has largely worked for them over the past three years to feature Sanders.
Sigmund Bloom
That's probably the sixth-round duo of Trayveon Williams and Rodney Anderson in Cincinnati. Williams isn't that all different than third-rounder Devin Singletary in terms of size and burst, although Singletary's calling card - and rare talent for a smaller back - is yards after contact and Williams is pass blocking. Anderson is one of the two or three best running back talents in this class, but his injury history scared teams off and he's recovering from a torn ACL. The lack of draft capital investment is bad enough for their early outlooks, but the presence of Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard pushes it into the category of worst situations for a running back to be drafted into in the league.
Phil Alexander
Justice Hill's elite blend of speed and burst would play well on any NFL team, but I'm not sure he'll have the opportunity to make a fantasy impact as a rookie. With Mark Ingram cemented as Baltimore's early-down back, Hill figures to operate as a dynamic change-of-pace, but his upside as a pass-catcher -- an area in which he excelled at Oklahoma State -- is capped playing alongside Lamar Jackson.
After Jackson took over at quarterback for Baltimore in Week 11, the team's running backs were targeted just 28 times over the rest of the season. The only team with fewer running back targets over the same span was Buffalo (22), which was no coincidence. Both Jackson and Josh Allen would sooner scramble, and either take off running or buy time for a big play to develop downfield, rather than check down to a running back. Without receptions and receiving yards to boost his counting stats, Hill is likely to remain an Ingram injury away from relevance this season.
Andy Hicks
Just about all the guys drafted come into this category in some form outside Josh Jacobs. Phil and Sigmund mention good backs drafted in round 4 onwards. For over 90% of these players, the most we talk about them is before they’ve played a down in the NFL. Unless these guys get an opportunity and stand out, next years player will always replace them very quickly. I actually agree with the takes on both Justice Hill and the Cincinnati backs, but history tells us they won’t be in the league long, let alone becoming the lead back on an NFL team. You can advocate that all the backs drafted in rounds four to six are a cruel twist of fate from becoming lead backs, but good luck picking which one, if any it is.
I don’t think any of the backs taken in the first three rounds are in a dire situation, as ultimately they will get the opportunity to prove themselves this year, even if only it is spot duty at first. In 2020 when we get regime changes, new offensive minds, and roster changes, then the bad situations will truly emerge.
Dan Hindery
It feels a bit cliche to say but it is true — if Rodney Anderson had been able to stay healthy, he probably would have been a first or second-round pick. Instead, after suffering a torn ACL, he slid all the way to the tail end of the sixth round. He would be a player worth targeting in rookie drafts due to his talent but he landed in a rough spot. Joe Mixon is still just 22-years old and firmly entrenched as the long-term starter for the Bengals. Giovani Bernard is an above-average third down back, so even the path to No. 2 on the depth chart is difficult. Plus, Anderson wasn’t even the only back the Bengals drafted. Trayveon Williams was selected with an earlier pick in the same round. Add it all up and it is hard to get excited about Anderson’s fantasy prospects, which is a shame given the fantasy-friendly skills he boasts when healthy.
Chad Parsons
Two running backs stand out here, one in terms of perception and another in reality. First, I struggle to understand why Alexander Mattison is not more heralded among the rookie class. As a Day 2 back with quality metric profile, Mattison landed behind one of the bigger injury/durability risk starters in the NFL (Dalvin Cook) and an injury away from a strong role with minimal competition. Bryce Love would be the back stuck in a poor situation but I trust the talent. Washington is in transition (pending Dwayne Haskins being a transformational franchise player and the front office, for once, getting out of the way from poisoning the well) plus has Adrian Peterson back and Derrius Guice (hopefully) on the right track post-injury to sit atop the depth chart at some point during 2019. Love may not see many opportunities until 2020 (or later).