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There are some fantasy football players that believe that the lineup you pick can lose you a game just as much as it can win a contest. Having a player give you a consistent performance week after week can be considered more valuable than a player who goes off every third week and then takes two weeks off between those fantastic performances. Consistency has a value, and it does not take much of a leap to understand that players that you can rely on for solid games when you need them (such as in your postseason) are a huge advantage.
Baseball has a term called "Quality Starts" for pitchers, which is a statistic that represents how often a starting pitcher will put up a good (not great, just good) performance in a given game. The bar is set neither high nor low (six innings pitched, three earned runs or fewer) so as to gauge a decent performance. The theory behind it is that if your pitcher gives you a Quality Start, your team has a fighting chance to win a given game.
So now we need to translate this to football. What is "quality" for each position? How do we define a "Quality Start" for quarterbacks or running backs or any other position? Looking back at the 2018 season, the first attempt was to use the #24 WR for the year (Adam Humphries, 188.7 fantasy points) and take that fantasy total and divide it by 16 for a per game average. The next step, however, was to take all of the Top 75 wide receivers from 2018 and sort them on a per game average. That method can account for missed games or a per-start performance metric, which is how most fantasy team owners would decide their roster for the week. The WR24 on a per-game average basis last season was Tyler Lockett, with 222.9 fantasy points in 16 games, or a 13.93 points per game average - significantly different from Humphries’ 11.8 average for the season. The reason that this is the better baseline comes from four strong examples of receivers that were outside of the Top 24 wide receiver performance list for the season, but averaged more than 14 points per game. Cooper Kupp, A.J. Green, Will Fuller and A.J. Jeffery were all fantasy starters when they were healthy, and their strong points per game averages pointed to that fact. Therefore, using the per game average is by far the best method. Now it is reasonable to also acknowledge that taking WR24 seems a bit arbitrary, but if you are looking for a bare minimum of quality, the 24th WR should be the "worst starter" in your fantasy league as a WR2 and a great WR3.
Next, we move on to the next question - one of quantifying the quality. At what point do we decide whether or not a wide receiver has given us a quality performance? Here is where it gets a bit murky, but looking at the distribution of WR performances by starters over the season and it becomes evident that the using the 24th WR average and adding or subtracting a percentage gives us a good range for a WR Quality Start.
Using the WR Quality Start range, we can also define a bad performance or an excellent performance as either falling below or exceeding the Quality Start range. Table 1 gives us the fantasy points that it takes to fall in each of the three areas:
WR Start Type
|
Fantasy Points
|
Bad Start
|
0 to 10.4
|
Quality Start
|
10.5 to 17.4
|
Excellent Start
|
17.5+
|
Table 1: 2018 WR Quality Start and Fantasy Point Ranges - PPR Scoring
Table 2 shows us the breakdown of all the Top 75 WRs from 2018 and how many of each type of start resulted for each:
Wide Receiver
|
Team
|
Excellent Starts
|
Quality Starts
|
Bad Starts
|
Total Starts
|
HOU
|
8
|
8
|
0
|
16
|
|
ATL
|
11
|
4
|
1
|
16
|
|
GBP
|
13
|
2
|
0
|
15
|
|
KCC
|
8
|
4
|
4
|
16
|
|
Antonio Brown
|
PIT
|
8
|
6
|
1
|
15
|
NOS
|
9
|
3
|
4
|
16
|
|
MIN
|
8
|
6
|
2
|
16
|
|
PIT
|
8
|
5
|
3
|
16
|
|
TBB
|
9
|
3
|
4
|
16
|
|
MIN
|
7
|
4
|
4
|
15
|
|
LAR
|
6
|
8
|
2
|
16
|
|
LAC
|
8
|
5
|
2
|
15
|
|
LAR
|
6
|
5
|
4
|
15
|
|
IND
|
6
|
5
|
3
|
14
|
|
Odell Beckham
|
NYG
|
8
|
2
|
2
|
12
|
SEA
|
4
|
9
|
3
|
16
|
|
Tyler Boyd
|
CIN
|
6
|
3
|
5
|
14
|
CLE
|
5
|
7
|
4
|
16
|
|
DAL
|
4
|
3
|
7
|
14
|
|
Calvin Ridley
|
ATL
|
5
|
2
|
8
|
15
|
NEP
|
7
|
4
|
1
|
12
|
|
DET
|
6
|
4
|
5
|
15
|
|
DEN
|
5
|
4
|
3
|
12
|
|
Adam Humphries
|
TBB
|
3
|
5
|
8
|
16
|
TBB
|
4
|
4
|
7
|
15
|
|
ARI
|
1
|
9
|
6
|
16
|
|
PHI
|
4
|
3
|
6
|
13
|
|
Mohamed Sanu
|
ATL
|
2
|
7
|
7
|
16
|
Corey Davis
|
TEN
|
3
|
4
|
9
|
16
|
PHI
|
4
|
3
|
8
|
15
|
|
NYG
|
3
|
4
|
9
|
16
|
|
Mike Williams
|
LAC
|
4
|
3
|
8
|
15
|
Dede Westbrook
|
JAC
|
4
|
3
|
9
|
16
|
Nelson Agholor
|
PHI
|
3
|
3
|
9
|
15
|
Zay Jones
|
BUF
|
4
|
2
|
9
|
15
|
D.J. Moore
|
CAR
|
3
|
6
|
7
|
16
|
Robby Anderson
|
NYJ
|
4
|
1
|
9
|
14
|
Jordy Nelson
|
OAK
|
3
|
5
|
5
|
13
|
HOU
|
3
|
3
|
8
|
14
|
|
Allen Robinson
|
CHI
|
2
|
3
|
8
|
13
|
Taylor Gabriel
|
CHI
|
1
|
3
|
11
|
15
|
CIN
|
5
|
3
|
1
|
9
|
|
TBB
|
2
|
5
|
5
|
12
|
|
Cole Beasley
|
DAL
|
2
|
2
|
12
|
16
|
John Brown
|
BAL
|
3
|
2
|
10
|
15
|
Doug Baldwin
|
SEA
|
3
|
2
|
7
|
12
|
Curtis Samuel
|
CAR
|
1
|
7
|
4
|
12
|
Josh Gordon
|
NEP
|
1
|
6
|
5
|
12
|
Tyrell Williams
|
LAC
|
2
|
1
|
12
|
15
|
Courtland Sutton
|
DEN
|
2
|
2
|
12
|
16
|
LAR
|
4
|
2
|
2
|
8
|
|
Kenny Stills
|
MIA
|
2
|
2
|
11
|
15
|
Willie Snead
|
BAL
|
0
|
7
|
7
|
14
|
Antonio Callaway
|
CLE
|
2
|
4
|
8
|
14
|
Donte Moncrief
|
JAC
|
2
|
3
|
9
|
14
|
Michael Crabtree
|
BAL
|
1
|
6
|
8
|
15
|
Danny Amendola
|
MIA
|
1
|
3
|
11
|
15
|
Christian Kirk
|
ARI
|
1
|
5
|
6
|
12
|
Devin Funchess
|
CAR
|
2
|
2
|
8
|
12
|
Anthony Miller
|
CHI
|
1
|
4
|
8
|
13
|
Rashard Higgins
|
CLE
|
1
|
3
|
9
|
13
|
Chester Rogers
|
IND
|
2
|
2
|
10
|
14
|
Marvin Jones
|
DET
|
1
|
3
|
5
|
9
|
KCC
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
9
|
|
Kendrick Bourne
|
SFO
|
0
|
4
|
10
|
14
|
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
|
GBP
|
1
|
4
|
9
|
14
|
Josh Doctson
|
WAS
|
0
|
4
|
9
|
13
|
Seth Roberts
|
OAK
|
0
|
3
|
12
|
15
|
Will Fuller
|
HOU
|
3
|
2
|
2
|
7
|
Chris Hogan
|
NEP
|
1
|
4
|
7
|
12
|
Dante Pettis
|
SFO
|
2
|
3
|
3
|
8
|
David Moore
|
SEA
|
3
|
1
|
7
|
11
|
TreQuan Smith
|
NOS
|
2
|
1
|
6
|
9
|
Josh Reynolds
|
LAR
|
3
|
1
|
6
|
10
|
Jarius Wright
|
CAR
|
0
|
3
|
13
|
16
|
|
|
279
|
286
|
472
|
|
Table 2: 2018 WR Start Types Sorted By Top 75 WRs - PPR Scoring
That's a lot of info to digest, so here is some help. First, we see that there were fewer Excellent Starts (279) than there were Quality Starts (286), but it goes even further than that. Last season's 279 Excellent Starts were the same number as in 2017, but the number of Quality Starts dropped significantly (down 20% from 357 in both 2017 and 2016). This can be attributed to the higher standard for both Excellent Starts (17.5+ points) and Quality Starts (10.5), both the highest levels in the past 10 seasons. While the NFL is clearly favoring the passing game, the bar for elite wide receivers is also going up. Of course there were also a large number of Bad Starts (472), but we are only looking for the best here, plus a "start" is not as definitive for a positional player that may just see partial playing time. Table 3 summarizes a few of these trends:
Season
|
Excellent Starts
|
Quality Starts
|
Excellent Start Threshold
|
2009
|
322
|
348
|
14.8
|
2010
|
332
|
281
|
14.9
|
2011
|
315
|
340
|
15.4
|
2012
|
355
|
319
|
15.4
|
2013
|
322
|
281
|
15.8
|
2014
|
325
|
290
|
16.4
|
2015
|
310
|
305
|
16.6
|
2016
|
267
|
357
|
16.7
|
2017
|
279
|
357
|
15.4
|
2018
|
279
|
286
|
17.5
|
Table 3: Excellent and Quality Starts - 2009 to 2018 - PPR Scoring
Now, to dig deeper, let's look at the numbers distributed in two different ways. First, I need to define a valuable starting wide receiver in this system. We want a WR that will win more fantasy games than lose them, so we want either "Quality" or "Excellent" starts. Using a simple formula of scoring each type of start, we can define the value of a given NFL wide receiver. Here is the formula:
STARTING FANTASY WR VALUE = EXCELLENT STARTS - BAD STARTS
We neglect to look at Quality Starts because they neither win games nor lose them on average - they are just average WR performances. We only really care about how often he helps our team vs. how often he hurts it. Giving a "-1" value to bad starts and "+1" to excellent ones does this for us.
On with the results, sorted by value:
Wide Receiver
|
Team
|
Excellent Starts
|
Quality Starts
|
Bad Starts
|
Total Starts
|
Net Value
|
GBP
|
13
|
2
|
0
|
15
|
13
|
|
ATL
|
11
|
4
|
1
|
16
|
10
|
|
HOU
|
8
|
8
|
0
|
16
|
8
|
|
Antonio Brown
|
PIT
|
8
|
6
|
1
|
15
|
7
|
MIN
|
8
|
6
|
2
|
16
|
6
|
|
LAC
|
8
|
5
|
2
|
15
|
6
|
|
Odell Beckham
|
NYG
|
8
|
2
|
2
|
12
|
6
|
NEP
|
7
|
4
|
1
|
12
|
6
|
|
NOS
|
9
|
3
|
4
|
16
|
5
|
|
PIT
|
8
|
5
|
3
|
16
|
5
|
|
TBB
|
9
|
3
|
4
|
16
|
5
|
|
KCC
|
8
|
4
|
4
|
16
|
4
|
|
LAR
|
6
|
8
|
2
|
16
|
4
|
|
CIN
|
5
|
3
|
1
|
9
|
4
|
|
MIN
|
7
|
4
|
4
|
15
|
3
|
|
IND
|
6
|
5
|
3
|
14
|
3
|
|
LAR
|
6
|
5
|
4
|
15
|
2
|
|
DEN
|
5
|
4
|
3
|
12
|
2
|
|
LAR
|
4
|
2
|
2
|
8
|
2
|
|
SEA
|
4
|
9
|
3
|
16
|
1
|
|
Tyler Boyd
|
CIN
|
6
|
3
|
5
|
14
|
1
|
CLE
|
5
|
7
|
4
|
16
|
1
|
|
DET
|
6
|
4
|
5
|
15
|
1
|
|
Will Fuller
|
HOU
|
3
|
2
|
2
|
7
|
1
|
KCC
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
9
|
0
|
|
Dante Pettis
|
SFO
|
2
|
3
|
3
|
8
|
-1
|
PHI
|
4
|
3
|
6
|
13
|
-2
|
|
Jordy Nelson
|
OAK
|
3
|
5
|
5
|
13
|
-2
|
DAL
|
4
|
3
|
7
|
14
|
-3
|
|
Calvin Ridley
|
ATL
|
5
|
2
|
8
|
15
|
-3
|
TBB
|
4
|
4
|
7
|
15
|
-3
|
|
TBB
|
2
|
5
|
5
|
12
|
-3
|
|
Curtis Samuel
|
CAR
|
1
|
7
|
4
|
12
|
-3
|
Josh Reynolds
|
LAR
|
3
|
1
|
6
|
10
|
-3
|
PHI
|
4
|
3
|
8
|
15
|
-4
|
|
Mike Williams
|
LAC
|
4
|
3
|
8
|
15
|
-4
|
D.J. Moore
|
CAR
|
3
|
6
|
7
|
16
|
-4
|
Doug Baldwin
|
SEA
|
3
|
2
|
7
|
12
|
-4
|
Josh Gordon
|
NEP
|
1
|
6
|
5
|
12
|
-4
|
Marvin Jones
|
DET
|
1
|
3
|
5
|
9
|
-4
|
David Moore
|
SEA
|
3
|
1
|
7
|
11
|
-4
|
TreQuan Smith
|
NOS
|
2
|
1
|
6
|
9
|
-4
|
Adam Humphries
|
TBB
|
3
|
5
|
8
|
16
|
-5
|
ARI
|
1
|
9
|
6
|
16
|
-5
|
|
Mohamed Sanu
|
ATL
|
2
|
7
|
7
|
16
|
-5
|
Dede Westbrook
|
JAC
|
4
|
3
|
9
|
16
|
-5
|
Zay Jones
|
BUF
|
4
|
2
|
9
|
15
|
-5
|
Robby Anderson
|
NYJ
|
4
|
1
|
9
|
14
|
-5
|
HOU
|
3
|
3
|
8
|
14
|
-5
|
|
Christian Kirk
|
ARI
|
1
|
5
|
6
|
12
|
-5
|
Corey Davis
|
TEN
|
3
|
4
|
9
|
16
|
-6
|
NYG
|
3
|
4
|
9
|
16
|
-6
|
|
Nelson Agholor
|
PHI
|
3
|
3
|
9
|
15
|
-6
|
Allen Robinson
|
CHI
|
2
|
3
|
8
|
13
|
-6
|
Antonio Callaway
|
CLE
|
2
|
4
|
8
|
14
|
-6
|
Devin Funchess
|
CAR
|
2
|
2
|
8
|
12
|
-6
|
Chris Hogan
|
NEP
|
1
|
4
|
7
|
12
|
-6
|
John Brown
|
BAL
|
3
|
2
|
10
|
15
|
-7
|
Willie Snead
|
BAL
|
0
|
7
|
7
|
14
|
-7
|
Donte Moncrief
|
JAC
|
2
|
3
|
9
|
14
|
-7
|
Michael Crabtree
|
BAL
|
1
|
6
|
8
|
15
|
-7
|
Anthony Miller
|
CHI
|
1
|
4
|
8
|
13
|
-7
|
Rashard Higgins
|
CLE
|
1
|
3
|
9
|
13
|
-8
|
Chester Rogers
|
IND
|
2
|
2
|
10
|
14
|
-8
|
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
|
GBP
|
1
|
4
|
9
|
14
|
-8
|
Kenny Stills
|
MIA
|
2
|
2
|
11
|
15
|
-9
|
Josh Doctson
|
WAS
|
0
|
4
|
9
|
13
|
-9
|
Taylor Gabriel
|
CHI
|
1
|
3
|
11
|
15
|
-10
|
Cole Beasley
|
DAL
|
2
|
2
|
12
|
16
|
-10
|
Tyrell Williams
|
LAC
|
2
|
1
|
12
|
15
|
-10
|
Courtland Sutton
|
DEN
|
2
|
2
|
12
|
16
|
-10
|
Danny Amendola
|
MIA
|
1
|
3
|
11
|
15
|
-10
|
Kendrick Bourne
|
SFO
|
0
|
4
|
10
|
14
|
-10
|
Seth Roberts
|
OAK
|
0
|
3
|
12
|
15
|
-12
|
Jarius Wright
|
CAR
|
0
|
3
|
13
|
16
|
-13
|
Table 4: 2018 WR Start Types Sorted By Value - PPR Scoring
This is a lot of information once again, but some names leap out at us. The first observation is that there were only two receivers on the entire list with just zero bad starts (Davante Adams and DeAndre Hopkins – the second year in a row for Hopkins ) and only four with just one Bad Start (Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, Julian Edelman and A.J. Green) – and Green missed nearly half of the season. Five of these receivers (all but Green) were in the Top 8 in Net Value, joined by three receivers with just two bad starts (Adam Thielen, Keenan Allen and Odell Beckham). The Top 8 accounted for a combined +62 Net Value, or nearly 60% of the positive value on the chart. Three more elite tier receivers were just behind at +5 Net Value (Michael Thomas, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mike Evans), as each of them were hindered by 3-4 Bad Starts. Tyreek Hill came in just behind this group despite his eight Excellent Starts, as his four Bad Starts lowered his Net Value. Despite 24 receivers having a positive Net Value last year, even if you had a fantasy roster completely comprised of this short and elite list, at least one of your wide receivers would still underperform roughly 20% of the time. That shows how difficult it was to find reliable, quality receivers once again last season. It is decidedly clear that getting 2-4 top notch receivers on your fantasy team is critical to success in today's pass-happy NFL.
Lastly, I will sift through it for you and get right to the heart of the matter with our final table. Here we have the results sorted by value for the Top 48 WRs on the 2019 ADP list.
Wide Receiver
|
Team
|
Excellent Starts
|
Quality Starts
|
Bad Starts
|
Total Starts
|
Net Value
|
ADP
|
GBP
|
13
|
2
|
0
|
15
|
13
|
7
|
|
ATL
|
11
|
4
|
1
|
16
|
10
|
11
|
|
HOU
|
8
|
8
|
0
|
16
|
8
|
5
|
|
Antonio Brown
|
PIT
|
8
|
6
|
1
|
15
|
7
|
18
|
Odell Beckham
|
NYG
|
8
|
2
|
2
|
12
|
6
|
14
|
LAC
|
8
|
5
|
2
|
15
|
6
|
23
|
|
MIN
|
8
|
6
|
2
|
16
|
6
|
24
|
|
NEP
|
7
|
4
|
1
|
12
|
6
|
38
|
|
NOS
|
9
|
3
|
4
|
16
|
5
|
9
|
|
PIT
|
8
|
5
|
3
|
16
|
5
|
15
|
|
TBB
|
9
|
3
|
4
|
16
|
5
|
19
|
|
CIN
|
5
|
3
|
1
|
9
|
4
|
32
|
|
LAR
|
6
|
8
|
2
|
16
|
4
|
42
|
|
KCC
|
8
|
4
|
4
|
16
|
4
|
64
|
|
IND
|
6
|
5
|
3
|
14
|
3
|
27
|
|
MIN
|
7
|
4
|
4
|
15
|
3
|
31
|
|
LAR
|
6
|
5
|
4
|
15
|
2
|
39
|
|
LAR
|
4
|
2
|
2
|
8
|
2
|
47
|
|
DEN
|
5
|
4
|
3
|
12
|
2
|
WR46
|
|
DET
|
6
|
4
|
5
|
15
|
1
|
41
|
|
SEA
|
4
|
9
|
3
|
16
|
1
|
55
|
|
CLE
|
5
|
7
|
4
|
16
|
1
|
63
|
|
Tyler Boyd
|
CIN
|
6
|
3
|
5
|
14
|
1
|
66
|
Will Fuller
|
HOU
|
3
|
2
|
2
|
7
|
1
|
81
|
KCC
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
9
|
0
|
58
|
|
Dante Pettis
|
SFO
|
2
|
3
|
3
|
8
|
-1
|
83
|
PHI
|
4
|
3
|
6
|
13
|
-2
|
70
|
|
DAL
|
4
|
3
|
7
|
14
|
-3
|
26
|
|
Calvin Ridley
|
ATL
|
5
|
2
|
8
|
15
|
-3
|
50
|
TBB
|
4
|
4
|
7
|
15
|
-3
|
51
|
|
D.J. Moore
|
CAR
|
3
|
6
|
7
|
16
|
-4
|
59
|
Mike Williams
|
LAC
|
4
|
3
|
8
|
15
|
-4
|
67
|
PHI
|
4
|
3
|
8
|
15
|
-4
|
89
|
|
Marvin Jones
|
DET
|
1
|
3
|
5
|
9
|
-4
|
93
|
Robby Anderson
|
NYJ
|
4
|
1
|
9
|
14
|
-5
|
72
|
Christian Kirk
|
ARI
|
1
|
5
|
6
|
12
|
-5
|
85
|
ARI
|
1
|
9
|
6
|
16
|
-5
|
98
|
|
Allen Robinson
|
CHI
|
2
|
3
|
8
|
13
|
-6
|
75
|
Corey Davis
|
TEN
|
3
|
4
|
9
|
16
|
-6
|
79
|
NYG
|
3
|
4
|
9
|
16
|
-6
|
92
|
|
Courtland Sutton
|
DEN
|
2
|
2
|
12
|
16
|
-10
|
96
|
Table 5: 2019 Top Drafted WRs Sorted By 2018 Value - PPR Scoring
Judging from 2018, there were clearly a number of recievers that excelled far more often than disappointed on a weekly basis. No fewer than 11 wide receivers had at least eight Excellent Starts, highlighted at the top of the chart by DaVante Adams’ 13 outstanding performances and Julio Jones’ 11 elite games. All of these 11 wide receivers project to be drafted in the Top 25 picks in most PPR-league fantasy drafts this year, with one lone exception – Tyreek Hill. Hill's ADP continues to climb towards the WR1 level of where he performed last year, as his likely suspension from the NFL looks more and more like it will be only a handful of games for the early part of 2019. Honorable mention must go to Julian Edelman, as his ADP (38) is much lower than his neighbors in Table 5, and Edelman is in line for a huge workload after the retirement of TE Rob Gronkowski. Tyler Lockett also looks like a reasonable value, but upon digging deeper for Lockett's numbers from last season it is clear that he was very touchdown dependent (10 touchdowns on just 57 catches), which boosts his Excellent and Quality Start totals. Cooper Kupp is getting the respect he deserves as a fantasy standout even though he missed half of the year due to a mid-season ACL tear. Another player that also missed significant time due to injury is Will Fuller, who had three Excellent Starts in just seven games in 2018. Both Kupp and Fuller project to be WR2s with upside if they can stay healthy all year. One additional player who is returning from injury is Emmanuel Sanders, who also gets a quarterback change with Joe Flacco now in Denver. If Sanders can match his 2018 numbers, he will turn out to be a huge value as a WR4 in most drafts. Table 5 points some concern towards Amari Cooper (Net Value -3) and Chris Godwin (also -3), as each receiver had disappointing overall seasons in 2018, but both also had strong second half performances which point towards their higher ADP numbers. This is where looking at season-long numbers can be misleading, so as always take the Quality Start numbers from 2018 with a grain of salt - there is no reason to believe in these numbers as 100% indications of 2019 performance, but having this information available should give you more to think about when deciding who you will have leading your fantasy team this year.
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.