Why You Should be Jonesing for Aaron Jones

Photo: Jeff Hanisch, USA Today Sports

A Different Kind of Player Spotlight -- The Projection Spectrum

As a proud, new member of the Footballguys staff, I'm excited to participate in the Player Spotlight series, but my entries are going to look a bit different. The goal of this series -- which I call the Projection Spectrum -- is to provide fantasy owners with a sense of what a player’s reasonable floor and ceiling are. Knowing this information can be key when making roster construction decisions. There are three primary components in this analysis: Volume quantity, volume quality, and player talent. These three components are the lifeblood of a strong projection model. -- Dwain McFarland

Over the past two seasons, Aaron Jones has shown flashes of superior ability as a runner and receiver. Things just never aligned for the young runner from an opportunity perspective. Now Matt LaFleur is bringing his version of the Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay offense to Green Bay. Could this be the year everything lines up Jones?

Yes, it well could be the year. Aaron Jones is squarely in the RB2 mix heading for 2019. His draft cost is similar to Derrick Henry, Marlon Mack, Devonta Freeman, Josh Jacobs, and Kerryon Johnson. While Jones’ median projections grade out closely with this group, his less obstructed path to more volume in a potentially explosive offense provide a higher ceiling. Our analysis will show that Jones is worth prioritizing over everyone in this tier with the exception of Devonta Freeman.

Volume Quantity

Over the past two seasons, Mike McCarthy’s offense ran around the league average in plays and attempts but leaned heavily towards the pass. The Packers’ team rushing attempts were well below the league averages.

NFL Averages - Plays, Attempts, and Splits

Mike McCarthy - Plays, Attempts, and Splits

LaFleur, while only calling plays last season, has been associated with teams that operate at a similar pace but were more committed to the run.

Matt LaFleur - Plays, Attempts, and Splits

Last season is likely an extreme based on Mike Vrabel’s game planning preferences, but the Shanahan and McVay systems are inherently much more balanced than what McCarthy was deploying in his final years. Shanahan and McVay perennially rank amongst the league leaders in percentage of pass attempts utilizing play action. This offense is designed to set up punches and counter punches off of the run action.

Based on this data, it is safe to predict an increase in volume for this running game, but what about the workload splits?

In two seasons with McCarthy Jones didn't see the field often on passing downs (34% of pass snaps versus Jamaal Williams 47% in 2018). It is apparent something is going on here – perhaps the staff didn't trust him in pass pro? Monitoring Jones involvement in obvious passing down situations this preseason will be important.

The data below is prorated based on games played to get a better feel for intended usage with Jones (RB1 for McCarthy in 2018).

Mike McCarthy - Prorated Running Back Workloads

For LaFleur, in 2017 and 2015 dominant rushing percentages were allocated to the top running back with the Rams and Falcons – Todd Gurley and Devonta Freeman. However, we see evenly split situations in 2016 and 2018 with the Titans and Falcons.

In all seasons more passing work was distributed through the backs. This is important to note. When you pair this history with the recent comments from LaFleur about integrating his running backs into the passing game more; there is a strong case to be made for an uptick in work for Jones. This roster currently only has one proven receiver – Davante Adams. Outside of that, the team is counting on Jimmy Graham and some young, unproven receivers to step up. They all have potential, but it is also possible that Jones finds himself as high as No. 3 in the pecking order.

Matt LaFleur - Prorated Running back Workloads

This data is a little harder to pin down since utilization can tie back to the talent available, it isn't always about a coaches philosophy to give one back, or multiple backs work. This does, however, provide a framework for projecting the team passing and rushing volumes as well as utilization ranges for Aaron Jones.

Team Rushing Volume Ranges

Team Passing Volume Ranges

Aaron Jones Utilization Ranges

Notice the rushing and passing volumes are converse to one another in the conservative and aggressive ranges. Projecting conservative and aggressive ends of the spectrum is more nuanced than just applying all of the data from the ranges to Jones.

Pass attempts and target share don't fluctuate as much as rush attempts and rush share. Therefore, using aggressive team rush attempts (not pass attempts) is appropriate for establishing the far right of the aggressive volume projection.

Conservative, Median, and Aggressive Permutations

Using these permutations produce our conservative, median, and aggressive volume projections for Jones.

Aaron Jones Projected Volume Ranges

Volume Quality

Mike McCarthy’s approach to the running game has never consistently supported explosive runs (greater than or equal to 15 yards) or touchdowns per attempt (TDPA). While some of this ties back to the talent of runners, much of the blame still sits at his feet as we have watched other coaches squeeze more out of similar talent.

In six out of the last ten seasons, his teams have ranked below the league average (4.6%) in explosive runs. In five of ten seasons, his teams have ranked below the league average in TDPA (2.9%).

Matt LaFleur, on the other hand, has been absorbing what an explosive running game looks like into his DNA. In seven of the last ten seasons, his teams have been among the league leaders in explosive runs. In eight of ten seasons, they fared as good or better than the league average in TDPA.

Explosive Runs and TDPA

LaFleur also comes from a lineage that utilizes running backs in the passing game more than McCarthy. Whether analyzing targets, receptions, yards, or touchdowns, the result is the same.

McCarthy’s running backs accounted for less than 13% of the team receiving yardage seven of the last ten seasons. The Shanahan and McVay schemes were over that number six of ten seasons.

McCarthy’s backs accounted for less than 10% of the team receiving touchdowns in six of ten seasons. The Shanahan and McVay schemes eclipsed that number six of ten seasons.

Coaching and scheme matter. Aaron Jones just got an upgrade.

Talent and Fit

When creating projections for running backs estimating yards per carry (YPC) is the most volatile component. Due to this, keeping players within a reasonable range makes sense so that YPC doesn't overly influence projections.

While projecting YPC can be tough, it also can't be ignored. When normalizing running backs over the past three seasons to only include those that reached 250 attempts, YPC is the second highest correlating factor (.78), and Explosive Attempts is the highest (.82) to rushing yards. What is interesting is explosive attempt ratios, unlike explosive yardage ratios, are more sticky than YPC.

Aaron Jones has a limited portfolio of NFL runs (214 attempts), but when we combine the last two seasons, his explosive run rate is 7.5%. While it is unlikely that he can keep his 5.5 YPC intact with a bigger workload, he is a good candidate to be above the league average.

Often in small sample sizes, yardage ratios are out of proportion versus attempt ratios. This is caused by inflated opportunities in situations where NFL defenses are trying to stop the pass. Think of a draw play on 3rd and 15.

With Jones, this isn’t the case. His carry to yardage ratio in obvious passing situations (greater than seven yards to go on second, third, and fourth down) are dead even at 19%.

Jones TDPA for his career is a healthy 5.6% with a solid 67% of scores coming from within the red zone. Jones is not overly dependent on the big play as his source of scoring.

Aaron Jones Historical Efficiency

It is reasonable to minimize efficiency loss for Jones in 2018 given the facts above plus gains likely to come from his new scheme. Over the past three seasons, the NFL average for YPC is 4.2.

Aaron Jones Projected Efficiency Ranges

Projection Spectrum

When putting it all together, Jones should see an increase in touches. While he probably sees some reduction in efficiency, it likely won’t push him below league averages given his track record plus the scheme.

For this range of outcomes, the efficiency data is static and based on median projections. Changes in efficiency would represent additional outcomes between and beyond these outcomes.

The Median, Realistic Ceiling, and Realistic floor represent ~70% of the possible outcomes. Think of a bell curve where probability is at its highest in the middle but gradually slopes down on both sides.

There is a multitude of amalgamations that could occur. It is unlikely that the linear bands above will mirror Jones’ actual production. However, the total fantasy point outputs are strong, given all the inputs we have evaluated.

Over-Optimistic Ceiling

The Packers hit the aggressive rushing play attempts (475) and conservative passing attempts (535). Jones takes on the majority of rushing role (60%) and serves as the teams No. 3 or 4 receiving option (15%). Jones takes the majority of red zone work.

Realistic Ceiling

The Packers hit the median play attempts for rushing (430) and passing (555). Jones takes on the majority of rushing role (60%) and picks up some more passing work (10%). Jones takes the majority of red zone work.

Median

The Packers hit the median play attempts for rushing (430) and passing (555). Jones takes the lead rushing role (55%) and picks up some more passing work (10%). Jones shares some red zone work.

Realistic Floor

The Packers hit the median play attempts for rushing (430) and passing (555). Jones is in a committee backfield that limits his rushing attempts (45%) and passing work (7%). Jones splits red zone duties.

Over-Pessimistic Floor

The Packers hit the conservative play attempts for rushing (385) and aggressive passing attempts (575). Jones is in a committee backfield that limits his rushing attempts (45%) and passing work (7%). Jones splits red zone duties.

Final Thoughts -- aka, Actionable Advice

Monitor in Preseason

Is Jones consistently playing on obvious passing downs and having success?

Is Jones getting the lions’ share of work or sharing in certain situations?

Are other receiving options struggling to assert themselves consistently or are several stepping up?

If the answers are yes, yes, and no then Jones’ realistic ceiling is in play. If the answers are mixed, then the median projection is probably intact. If the answers lean more to the negative side, then the realistic floor becomes a greater possibility.

Draft Strategy

Aaron Jones is squarely in the RB2 mix heading for 2019.

His draft cost is similar to Derrick Henry, Marlon Mack, Devonta Freeman, Josh Jacobs, and Kerryon Johnson. While Jones’ median projections grade out closely with this group, his less-obstructed path to more volume in a potentially explosive offense provide a higher ceiling.

• Marlon Mack is in a great offense but will share time with Nyheim Hines on passing downs. Frank Reich used three running backs for most of last season as well – something he picked up from Doug Pederson in Philadelphia.
• Derrick Henry is still more game flow dependent than most fantasy owners realize (see splits when leading and trailing).
• Josh Jacobs is on an offense that should be improved, but likely not as good as an Aaron Rodgers-led team. Jalen Richard is an underrated pass receiver who will work in often.
• Kerryon Johnson gets an upgrade in team rushing attempts with the arrival of Darrell Bevell (next subject of this series) but has a potential three-way committee still looming.
• Devonta Freeman is a legitimate counter play as he is in a solid offense and is likely to see an increase in work with Tevin Coleman gone. His median projection is slightly higher, and his ceiling is similar.

Prioritize Jones over all of these options except for Freeman, whose path to consistency and upside is superior.

Stats and Projections

Other Thoughts

The Footballguys staff debates Devonta Freeman, Marlon Mack and Aaron Jones:

DEVIN KNOTTS

Aaron Jones. I will be trying to take Jones in just about every league this season where possible. The new coaching staff of Matt LaFleur comes from the Shanahan lineage of coaching with the attitude of a balanced attack committing to one running back. Jones is an electric running back who was limited by Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers' audibles but should see the benefits of the limited audibles and better play calling which will lead to more touches and higher upside.

DAN HINDERY

Aaron Jones seems to be going in the third round primarily due to the belief Green Bay should have an elite offense. The Packers finished middle of the pack last year with 39 total offensive touchdowns (16th most in the NFL). The running game was even less impressive, finishing 22nd in rushing yards. With Aaron Rodgers continuing to make noise about how much control he wants at the line of scrimmage to change plays, it is hard to see the Packers really committing to the run like Indianapolis did last year. Plus, Jamaal Williams and Dexter Williams will probably steal some touches along the way.

ADAM HARSTAD

Most of the arguments for Aaron Jones, in my opinion, are heavily colored by the fact that he averages 5.5 yards per carry for his career. But this is a terrible point in his favor because yards per carry is the most random statistic for a running back. It shows virtually no correlation from year to year or from game to game, so Jones' ypc is much more likely to come back down to earth than to stay up in the stratosphere like that.

The Fantasy Footballers' Jeff Greenwood thinks Aaron Jones can be a league winner:

"Aaron Jones is being selected in mock drafts in the middle of the 3rd Round as the RB16. Draft him with confidence as early as pick 3.01. He’s a breakout candidate who could finish as a top-5 RB if everything aligns for him this season. Give me the NFL’s most efficient runner on a team that has the potential to lead the league in points scored. In fantasy football, upside is king. Aaron Jones is the definition of a potential league winner. All he needs is for the new coaching staff to acknowledge and apply his insane talent."