A Different Kind of Player Spotlight -- The Projection Spectrum
As a proud, new member of the Footballguys staff, I'm excited to participate in the Player Spotlight series, but my entries are going to look a bit different. The goal of this series -- which I call the Projection Spectrum -- is to provide fantasy owners with a sense of what a player’s reasonable floor and ceiling are. Knowing this information can be key when making roster construction decisions. There are three primary components in this analysis: Volume quantity, volume quality, and player talent. These three components are the lifeblood of a strong projection model. -- Dwain McFarland
Over the past two seasons, Aaron Jones has shown flashes of superior ability as a runner and receiver. Things just never aligned for the young runner from an opportunity perspective. Now Matt LaFleur is bringing his version of the Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay offense to Green Bay. Could this be the year everything lines up Jones?
Yes, it well could be the year. Aaron Jones is squarely in the RB2 mix heading for 2019. His draft cost is similar to Derrick Henry, Marlon Mack, Devonta Freeman, Josh Jacobs, and Kerryon Johnson. While Jones’ median projections grade out closely with this group, his less obstructed path to more volume in a potentially explosive offense provide a higher ceiling. Our analysis will show that Jones is worth prioritizing over everyone in this tier with the exception of Devonta Freeman.
Over the past two seasons, Mike McCarthy’s offense ran around the league average in plays and attempts but leaned heavily towards the pass. The Packers’ team rushing attempts were well below the league averages.
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