The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position.
Player Receiving 5 Votes
Baker Mayfield, Cleveland
David Dodds: Baker Mayfield had plenty of highlights in his rookie season including setting the NFL record for most touchdown passes by a rookie. In 2018, the Browns needed that kind of production. Mayfield had 134 attempts while trailing big and amassed 1,086 yards and 8 touchdowns in those situations. 293 of 486 pass attempts were while the Browns were losing. With a better team, he might not be asked to do as much. He is currently being drafted at or near his ceiling.
Will Grant: This one probably deserves an asterisk because by the start of the season, Mayfield could be on the value plays list. Hot off the news that the Browns signed Odell Beckham Jr, Mayfield shot up draft boards and was going as the #3-#4 quarterback off the board for a time. Then reality set in and people began to realize that he’s only in his second season and this team will need some time to gel. His ADP has come down a bit, but he’s still going much higher than he should in many leagues. Mayfield is near the bottom of the starting fantasy quarterback tier, but still has a lot of weapons around him. Come training camp, if he’s working well with the team, he could move back to a value play if people continue to fade him.
Ryan Hester: It’s easy to want to be excited about Cleveland’s offense, and all roads lead to Mayfield. Head coach Freddie Kitchens brings excitement but also brings continuity after taking control last season following the firing of Hue Jackson. And the acquisition of Odell Beckham Jr fans the flames of hype. But there is proven upside in veterans like Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, and Cam Newton available later. Mayfield has top-three quarterback upside, but if he is already being selected in the Top 7, there’s better equity elsewhere.
Chad Parsons: I am one of the biggest Mayfield proponents out there, dating back to his Oklahoma days. However, the Browns (specifically on offense) are being anointed as the next great thing for 2019 a la the Rams and Chiefs previously. Mayfield may very well meet or exceed expectations, but there is plenty of downside with Mayfield at his current ADP. Odell Beckham Jr was added, but the offense featured a short-game-centric Jarvis Landry and a raw David Njoku previously. Will the coaching staff foster Mayfield into an elite producer in Year 2? Will Mayfield's personality blend well with the not-always-an-in-line-solider Beckham? Mayfield is priced more at his ceiling than close to his floor for 2019.
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