Against The Spread Pool: Week 3

Photo: Philip G. Pavely, USA Today Sports

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Dave Larkin’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so once again this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two - the Footballguys' staff "Against the Spread Pool Challenge". Multiple staff members (19) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.

Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Here are the results from last week:

The second week of the season proved to be even better than Week 1 for the staff, which makes some sense with one game under our collective belts. The staff had a very strong performance overall with five of our writers reaching double-digits for correct picks on the week, led by Aaron Rudnicki's 12 correct picks. Keith Roberts (11) was one game behind, and Andy Hicks, Phil Alexander and James Brimacombe rounding out the Top 5 with a 10-6 record on the week. The loss by the Bengals (17 of the 19 staff picks were on Cincinnati) was nearly canceled out by the win (and cover) by Dallas (16 of 19 staff were on the Cowboys). Five other contents tipped the scales in the staff's favor, as the 13 correct picks on Kansas City along with 14 more wins on Houston, Buffalo, New England and Chicago helped the group to a 163-141 record (53.6%) for Week 2, raising the season-long record to 316-308 (50.6%). This is a strong performance but keep in mind that this slight winning record is still not good enough to beat the Las Vegas house advantage, which requires a "winning record" to be profitable to be over 52.3%.

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week.

CONSENSUS WINNERS

Here we are already in Week 3, but there is still no consensus for the staff in the group's picks against the Las Vegas spread. Only one team was picked by over 80% of the staff to cover the spread on Sunday, as 16 of the 19 staff members chose the Rams to go to Cleveland on Sunday Night Football and come out with a victory by more than a field goal against the Browns. Four teams were close to 80% as the Patriots, Cardinals, Seahawks and Texans all received 15 of 19 picks for the week. New England (-22.5) is a massive favorite over the Jets at home, but the staff see little reason to expect New York to keep the game within three touchdowns as the Jets are on their third quarterback (Luke Falk) on the young season. Seattle is also facing a backup quarterback as the Seahawks host the Saints, who are starting Teddy Bridgewater for the injured Drew Brees. Arizona might also join this "facing a backup" group if Cam Newton cannot play this week, and that seems to be the expectations for the staff as most are on the Cardinals to win at home over a reeling 0-2 Panthers team. Houston is getting more than a field goal as a road underdog to the Chargers, but Los Angeles has not looked very impressive with just one overtime win in Week 1 at home over the Colts and a lackluster loss in Detroit last week. Three teams (Tennessee, Dallas, San Francisco) received 13 of 19 picks while three more (Atlanta, Buffalo, Green Bay) earned 12 of 19 selections from the staff. Tennessee is one of six road teams with the majority of staff picks (the aforementioned Rams and Texans, Atlanta, Oakland and Chicago), while only four underdogs (Arizona, Houston, Atlanta and Oakland) were favored by the staff. As always, it will be fun and interesting to see how NFL Week 3 plays out.

ODDS AND ENDS

Only two weeks of the NFL season are in the books, and the next set of picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.

A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the profitable zone (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder than it might seem.

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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