As the data points of a new season build, identifying early trends and regression value points is key. By position, here are the trends and regression trends to know in advance of Week 3:
QUARTERBACKS
Jared Goff is off to a bumpy start with a touchdown rate nearly half of the previous two seasons and a 7.0 yards-per-attempt where 8.0+ was his mark from the last two years as well. The weapons are sound with Cooper Kupp looks healthy in his huge Week 2 performance and Todd Gurley looks fresh (however not used as much as previous seasons in the passing game to-date). Recent trades including Goff for ideas include:
- Goff for James White, 20 3rd
- Goff for James White, Joe Flacco
- Goff, Austin Hooper for J.J. Arcega-Whiteside. O.J. Howard (superflex)
Baker Mayfield was crowned the next Patrick Mahomes II in the offseason, taking the NFL by storm. Through two weeks, however, Mayfield has a meager two touchdowns and four interceptions, 3.5% lower completion rate than last year, his touchdown rate cut in half with nearly double the interception rate. All this is with Odell Beckham added to Jarvis Landry and Nick Chubb the starting back from Week 1 as opposed to midseason a year ago. Mayfield is a strong regression candidate in the coming weeks and especially for the rest of the season. Recent trades including Mayfield for ideas include:
- Mayfield, 20 1st for Tyreek Hill
- Mayfield for Kirk Cousins, D.J. Chark
- Mayfield, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside for Duke Johnson Jr, Terry McLaurin
Lamar Jackson is one of the hottest dynasty assets on the planet. He is putting up Madden-like numbers through two weeks (596 yards, 7-0 ratio passing with 126 rushing yards). His touchdown rate would be among the best all-time if sustained and a strong regression candidate considering Miami and Arizona are two target defenses for opposing offenses. Recent trades including Jackson for ideas include:
- Jackson, Evan Engram for Saquon Barkley, Carson Wentz (superflex)
- Jackson, Chris Carson for Michael Thomas
RUNNING BACKS
Rashaad Penny is one of the better pedigree buys among the running back position. Round 1 backs do not sit idly for long without a clear lead role. Chris Carson has fumbled in back-to-back weeks and is seeing a massive workload (39 touches in two games) despite a low yards-per-carry average (3.5) and Penny lapping Carson in Success Rate within the same offense. Penny may get the lead job this season via Carson injury or simply surpassing the lack-of-pedigree competition in the coming weeks. Recent trades including Penny for ideas include:
- Penny, Keenan Allen for Devin Singletary, Michael Gallup
- Penny, Dwayne Haskins for Cam Newton
Todd Gurley is a sell recommendation as he still holds name value, but his upside has tailed off due to his tempered usage. The lack of receiving work is perplexing and if goal-line opportunities are not plentiful, Gurley's low-RB1 ceiling with plenty of RB2-level weeks is the new norm. Here are some recent trades for ideas:
- Gurley for Amari Cooper
- Gurley, O.J. Howard for Irv Smith, 2x 1sts and 2x 2nds
WIDE RECEIVERS
Buy Mike Evans, Sell Chris Godwin. This works on both sides of the spectrum with Godwin sporting a ridiculous 18% touchdown rate through two games and Evans yet to find the end zone (plus playing through an illness towards 6-89-0 to-date). Evans is the alpha in Tampa Bay and a historic producer through age 25 in NFL history (more than 6,000 receiving yards and 40 touchdowns). Here are some recent trades for ideas:
- Evans for Leonard Fournette
- Evans for Stefon Diggs, Ian Thomas, Hakeem Butler, 4th
- Evans for James Conner
- Godwin, T.J. Hockenson, Kareem Hunt for DeAndre Hopkins
- Godwin, Mike Gesicki for Brandin Cooks, Vance McDonald, 4th
- Godwin, Michael Gallup for Mike Evans
- Robinson, Vernon Davis, Marquise Goodwin, 20 3rd for Mike Williams
- Robinson, Geronimo Allison for 20 3rd, 21 2nd
TIGHT ENDS
Delanie Walker is a cheap veteran bridge option, surviving Marcus Mariota's struggles as the de facto lead receiver in Tennessee. Walker has 12 targets over two games and the market is lagging behind, especially if Walker is on a dynasty roster with another strong option, explore trading for Walker to mend your own position need. Here are some recent trades:
- Walker for 20 4th
- Walker for Jakobi Meyers, 20 3rd, 20 5th
- Walker for Chris Thompson, Jason Witten
- Andrews for Adam Shaheen, 20 2nd, 20 2nd, 20 2nd
- Andrews, Derrius Guice, Donte Moncrief for Tom Brady, T.J. Hockenson, 20 1st
