The dynasty staffers at Footballguys will have regular Dynasty Roundtables throughout the offseason. This installment is focused on players available for the 2020 NFL Draft.
Most have Tua and Herbert as the top quarterbacks eligible for the 2020 Draft. Which one do you like better and why? Who is your next best quarterback?
I view Tagovailoa as the better prospect. His adjusted passing yards per attempt (AY/A) last season was 12.8 and he completed 69% of his passes compared to Herbert’s 8.3 AY/A 8.3 and 50% completion percentage. Context matters and Tagovailoa definitely benefitted from playing with elite teammates, but the gap in productivity is way too high to simply chalk it up to the difference in surrounding talent. Herbert has slightly better raw tools than Tagovailoa and theoretically more upside but unless he makes a huge leap in his senior year, Tagovailoa should be the top quarterback.
Jake Fromm is the other quarterback who should go in the top half of the 2020 1st round. He flies slightly under the radar because he doesn’t have any elite physical traits. However, he does everything well and seems to have fantastic intangibles in terms of leadership, work ethic, and on-field poise. He may not be an impact fantasy quarterback in the NFL but he is a good bet to at least be a long-term starter, which still has real value in Superflex leagues.
They should be considered the top two prospects entering the year, but as my colleagues have said, there are a few other contenders who could change the narrative with strong seasons. First, let’s discuss the two favorites. Herbert was atop most draft lists entering last year, but he had a “down” season at Oregon while others vaulted into prominence. But Herbert can push for the top spot again with a bounce back year, which will have to include raising his completion percentage into the mid- to high-60% range. Herbert has a massive build, and the athleticism to make throws out of the pocket and under pressure. However, he’s a victim of his system in that he’s rarely asked to make more than one or two reads, and that’s going to remain a question mark for NFL personnel executives no matter what his year-end numbers look like. As for Tua, he’s very close to a can’t-miss prospect. The only reason there even an inch of doubt about his spot at 1.01 is because he played hurt much of last year, and that opened the door for Clemson to manhandle Alabama in the national championship game. But let’s be clear – Trevor Lawrence is a once-in-a-generation talent, and will be the 1st overall pick in 2021 barring a major injury. Being the 2nd-best quarterback in college behind Lawrence – who is rightfully compared to Peyton Manning and John Elway in terms of pedigree – is no small feat. Tua can make any throw he’s required to, and unlike Herbert, he’s shown the ability to make complex reads.
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