A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. This article specifically targets deep sleeper value (players that can be found very lain a fantasy draft). In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look deeper than the Top 150 and identify players that should significantly outperform their late draft position. These players should be your targets after the 12th round of your draft.
Player Receiving 4 Votes
Darren Waller, Oakland
Will Grant: In most redraft leagues, Waller is not going to be drafted. He's at the bottom of the TE2 when it comes to projections and the Oakland passing game is going to be a mess this season. But in league formats where tight ends receive bonus points per receptions, leagues that have a lot of flex positions or leagues that have 14 or 16 teams, Waller becomes a late-round option. His ADP is below the basement right now, but in league formats where tight end production counts for more than normal, Waller is a guy that you want to target as one of your later round picks. If guys like Jason Witten, Chris Herndon or Gerald Everett are being considered in your draft, look at Waller as a guy who will beat out them in production by the end of the season.
Ryan Hester: The Waller experiment could easily crash and burn, but at least it won’t cost fantasy managers any real draft capital to try it. Waller’s current price suggests he’s only being drafted in leagues with 20 rounds or more. The reason for optimism is that his coaching staff, including head coach Jon Gruden, has been talking him up throughout the offseason. His competition for snaps is far from stiff with Luke Willson, Derek Carrier, and Erik Swoope as the nearest competitors. Additionally, Waller is an athletic marvel at 6’6” and 255 pounds, having run a sub-4.5 second 40-yard dash when he entered the NFL as a wide receiver. He could crash and burn, but if he doesn’t, those who believed in him could get a sizeable yield on a minimal investment.
Matt Waldman: Waller began his career as a big receiver but injuries and suspension slowed his development. The Ravens moved Waller to tight end, which had always been a possibility since the pre-draft evaluation period. After joining the Raiders midseason, Waller displayed enhanced professionalism and impressed the Raiders staff with his skills. He tracks and catches the ball like a primary wide receiver and he has the speed and acceleration to win on a variety of routes and alignments. Howard is on track to become the starting tight end and replace much of Jared Cook’s production.
Jason Wood: Darren Waller is the kind of last-round lottery ticket worth drafting. Chances are he’ll be a waiver-wire cut in Week 1 or Week 2, but there’s also a chance he could be your every-week starter at a razor-thin position. Waller has been in the league since 2015 and has a mere 18 career receptions, but the narrative entering 2019 is blisteringly hot. A battle with substance abuse nearly drove Waller out of the league, but he appears to have found a better path and flashed in the final weeks of the 2018 season with Oakland. Coach Gruden has called him the league’s best-kept secret, and he enters training camp as the clear-cut No. 1. If early camp reports confirm Gruden’s enthusiasm, Waller is worth targeting.
Players Receiving 3 Votes
Jack Doyle, Indianapolis
Drew Davenport: Don't think too hard on this one. Doyle looks like he has recovered from his hip and kidney problems from last year and all signs point to him being ready for the season. When he was in the lineup last year Andrew Luck peppered him with targets. While Luck's health is also a question at this point, absent any red flags about Doyle's health, pull the trigger on him in this tight end heavy offense and he'll massively outperform his current draft slot. And if he isn't healthy or can't stay healthy? His draft slot didn't cost you very much and he's an easy early-season cut.
Jeff Haseley: Jack Doyle averaged 4.4 receptions per game in the last three years with just over 9 yards per catch. Over a full season, that's roughly 71 catches for 640 yards and 4 touchdowns or 159 PPR FP. That equals a TE7 finish based on 2018 fantasy numbers. If he's healthy he should put up decent numbers in the strong Colts offense that often features the tight end position.
Jeff Pasquino: The consensus outlook is that Eric Ebron is the primary tight end for Indianapolis, while Jack Doyle is in second place. Let’s challenge that notion first. Doyle and Ebron played together in six games last season, and Doyle had more targets in three of those six games (Ebron had two, while one game was a tie). The two games where Ebron was targeted more just happened to be the two contests where Doyle was injured during the game. Doyle had 108 targets in 2017, adding weight to Doyle’s value and Andrew Luck’s affinity towards using tight ends. There is room in the Indianapolis offense for two tight ends on offense, and Doyle’s late ADP makes him a steal even if he only is the TE2 in Indianapolis. Recent history and Luck’s history with tight ends that goes all the way back to Stanford increases Doyle’s value – and it would not be surprising at all if Doyle outperforms Ebron this season.
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia
Andy Hicks: One of the most impressive rookie tight ends in 2018 was Dallas Goedert who had the luxury of an elite player in Zach Ertz to learn from. Breakout fantasy tight ends tend to have better than expected rookie seasons like George Kittle and Rob Gronkowski. Now Goedert is not expected to exceed 1000 receiving yards, but most importantly Philadelphia runs more two tight ends than almost any other team in the NFL and lacks elite talent at wide receiver. Philadelphia will be placing the ball into the hands of their playmakers and Goedert is going to be one.
Jeff Pasquino: Goedert was a valuable rookie for the Eagles last year, finishing at TE20 with 33 receptions, 334 yards and 4 touchdowns (plus one in the playoffs). Those are solid numbers for any second tight end, but Goedert’s rookie campaign must be viewed as very strong considering how difficult the transition it usually is for tight ends moving from college to the NFL in their first year. The Eagles were one of the top teams to use 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends) as their base offensive formation, as Philadelphia had two tight ends on the field 36% of the time in 2018. Houston (37%), Tennessee (30%), Kansas City (26%) and Baltimore (25%) were the only other team using two tight ends at least one-fourth of the time. Even if Zach Ertz stays healthy all year long, Goedert is well worth a TE2 spot on fantasy rosters and offers immense upside if Ertz was to miss any action.
Jason Wood: Goedert’s dynasty value plummeted a season ago when the Eagles drafted him. Not because it was a bad situation – the Eagles are one of the NFC’s best-run franchise. His value plummeted because it meant he would have to share tight end duties with Zach Ertz. Sure enough, Ertz went ahead and set a record for receptions last year in Goedert’s rookie season. But forgetting about the talented second-year player would be a mistake because the Eagles are going to run a lot of 12-personnel (2TE) sets this year; there’s even talk it’ll be the baseline offensive set. The Eagles wide receiver corps is deep, but it lacks a dynamic No. 1 that commands 25%+ target share. That leaves plenty of opportunities for Carson Wentz to spread the ball around, and in turn, both Ertz and Goedert could have top-12 seasons if they each play 16 games.
Player Receiving 2 Votes
Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati
Drew Davenport: Eifert languished in free agency a while, with good reason, before coming back to the fold in Cincinnati. He's just not able to stay on the field. But when looking around in deep sleeper territory he is exactly the type of player to aim for. If he manages to stay on the field his touchdown upside alone will vault him into top 12 consideration. With A.J. Green and John Ross already hurt Eifert has a clear path to targets in this offense. He's virtually free in drafts so selecting him as part of a tight-end-by-committee is a solid strategy to employ.
Chad Parsons: Health has been the watchword for Eifert in his career, playing a mere 14 games over the past three seasons. Eifert has been an impact when healthy, however, averaging 39.9 yards-per-game for his career, TE11 among active players and similar to O.J. Howard and Eric Ebron. Eifert has also been a 0.5 touchdowns-per-game producer in his career, higher than Zach Ertz, George Kittle, and Travis Kelce among others. Eifert's injuries have been deemed more random than connected (not injury-prone) to-date and Eifert is healthy heading into the season and poised to see a few games without A.J. Green as the potential feature target for the Bengals.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Cameron Brate, Tampa Bay
Justin Howe: I’ll never stop beating the Brate drum, especially now that he comes virtually free in any fantasy draft. He’s been fully supplanted by O.J. Howard, and he’s always a top candidate to go without a catch in a given week. But he also boasts a strong rapport with Jameis Winston near the goal line, and he catches touchdowns at a disproportionate clip (14.5%). Best-ball drafters could speculate much worse at TE3 in the final rounds of their drafts.
Gerald Everett, LA Rams
Daniel Simpkins: Tight ends take a while to develop and sometimes we forget that. We also forget how excited the Rams were to take Everette in Sean McVay’s first year as head coach, moving up in the second round to select him. He had a career year last season and was showing signs that the receiving part of his game was clicking. If the Rams keep increasing his targets significantly, as they’ve done the past two seasons, Everett could move on from being a forgotten man and into fantasy relevance.
Blake Jarwin, Dallas
Phil Alexander: Jarwin's 119-yard, three-touchdown explosion in Week 17 seemed to come out of nowhere but his rapport with Dak Prescott was evident in the weeks leading up to the season finale. Prescott targeted Jarwin total of 20 times from Weeks 14-16. The return of Jason Witten leaves Jarwin without a comfortable floor, but Witten is 37 years old and spent all of last season in the booth. Jarwin is a solid athlete who proved he belongs on the field last year and is reportedly having an impressive training camp. Even on limited snaps, he's capable of a handful of spike weeks. If Witten were to miss time (not unlikely after a year away from the game), Jarwin has low-end TE1 upside.
Ian Thomas, Carolina
Andy Hicks: Ian Thomas had a fantastic, unexpected rookie season in Carolina. So rare was his performance that only elite tight ends such as Rob Gronkowski, George Kittle, and Zach Ertz, among others have reached or exceeded his rookie efforts in recent years. Over the final five games of the season, he ranked in the top six fantasy tight ends during that time. The elephant in the room is Greg Olsen, but his chronic foot issues and likely final year will cede significant playing time to Thomas. Considering the lack of receiving talent on this team, look for Thomas to pick up where he left off in 2018 and surprise everyone, except those who take him late.
Jason Witten, Dallas
Matt Waldman: Witten earns fantasy production based on his understanding of zones, comfort with tight coverage, and quickness as the break-point. He'll return to the Cowboys offense and immediately upgrade the Dallas receiving game because of these skills. Older tight ends often fare well as high-volume options because offenses use the position in ways that emphasize savvy over athletic ability. Expect another year of low-end, fantasy starter production.
