The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position.
Player Receiving 5 Votes
Antonio Brown, Oakland
Will Grant: We will have a whole roundtable -- which will be posted on Thursday evening -- on what people are thinking about Brown this season. My main issues with him are that the Raiders are not the same as the Steelers at just about every position that matters for a wide receiver. Derek Carr is not Ben Roethlisberger and that's going to lead to a disappointing season for Brown.
Ryan Hester: The narrative is right for Brown to have a big season. He’s coming off a year that some would call a “down” one (touchdowns notwithstanding), and he’s on a new team trying to prove to the world that he was right for forcing his way off his old team. But the more concrete items work against Brown. Besides the feet and helmet drama, there’s a fear of the unknown with a new offense, he’s on the wrong side of 30, and Oakland’s philosophy under Jon Gruden last season was originated in the Stone Age. At this point in the draft, selecting a younger player on a better unit feels more comfortable than taking Brown.
Andy Hicks: With all kinds of weird reports coming about Antonio Brown's feet, following years of diva behavior, it is time to be very cautious about Brown in 2019. After five consecutive seasons as a top-three fantasy receiver, he is now in Oakland. Expecting this level of dominance on a new team, with a new quarterback and at age 31 is placing ridiculous expectations on the former Steeler if he is right to go. Add in temperament concerns, gelling with his new teammates and Oakland's tough traveling schedule and the makings are there for a massive drop in production. Hope for the best, but expect a significant downturn in production.
Daniel Simpkins: The more Oakland’s offense is examined, the more convinced we should become that Jon Gruden is going to make the running game, and particularly Josh Jacobs, the focal point of the offense. Brown’s ceiling is much lower than when he was with the Steelers. With fewer quality opportunities, he will not reach the statistical heights of the players that are being drafted around him at current ADP. Add in the recent news about his frostbitten feet and he just seems to be a player we should all be avoiding this draft season.
Jason Wood: Antonio Brown hasn’t had to play many games without Ben Roethlisberger under center, which is a big reason why Brown is on a Hall of Fame trajectory. In games where Roethlisberger hasn’t been Brown’s signal-caller, the enigmatic receiver has pro-rated at less than 70 reception, less than 1,000 yards, and has never caught a touchdown pass from someone else. If that’s what the Raiders have to look forward to, Brown will be an unmitigated disaster. The reality lies somewhere in between – Brown won’t be as good in Oakland, but Derek Carr will be functional enough to get him better numbers than a past-his-prime Michael Vick did a few seasons ago. Either way, Brown has a ceiling in Oakland that belies his ADP, and that’s before accounting for the bizarre situation with his feet that’s keeping him from practicing in training camp, and building a much-needed rapport with his new supporting cast.
Player Receiving 3 Votes
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