The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position.
Players Receiving 4 Votes
Drew Brees, New Orleans
Drew Davenport: There certainly has been some correction this offseason with his ADP as he's no longer in elite territory. But even so, it's not low enough to take a quarterback who is essentially a platoon player at this point in his career. While he had big games at Atlanta (dome), and at Cincinnati (historically bad defense), he was pedestrian or downright awful in most other road games. Additionally, the New Orleans defense played poorly to start the season and when they improved as the season went on the Saints offense was what Sean Payton wanted it to be - a rushing offense. Brees will still have his big weeks, but he's a pass at his current ADP.
Ryan Hester: Toss aside his advancing age and the team’s move towards a more balanced approach in recent years. Brees is overvalued because of fantasy football game theory. Why draft a quarterback in the 8-12 range who will finish in the 8-12 range when you could draft a quarterback 16th or later who has top-six upside? We see those kinds of finishes every year with quarterbacks. Even if a QB16+ leap of faith falls short, there are other options via the draft and waiver wire to dig fantasy GMs out of the shallow hole.
Dan Hindery: Brees is slightly overvalued because the age-related risks of a steep decline are not fully priced in. After a hot start in 2018, Brees only produced QB2 numbers from Week 4 on. He faded especially hard down the stretch, throwing just three touchdowns total after Week 12. The late-season swoon could have just been a blip on the radar but it is more of a red flag considering Brees turned 40-years old in January. There is no reason to shoulder the age-related risks with Brees considering the strength of the younger quarterback options in the same part of the draft.
Justin Howe: Brees remains one of the NFL’s most efficient passers, but he’s no longer much of a fantasy consideration. There are big games here and there – particularly in strong home matchups – but on the whole, Brees no longer separates himself from the QB2 pack very often. Over the last 2 years, the New Orleans offense has slowed considerably (just 20th in total snaps) and thrown a lot less (28th in dropbacks) than fantasy players are used to. Reputation and a handful of juicy Superdome matchups keep Brees in the QB1 range of drafts, but there’s much more upside – and similar floors – to guys that last even further.
Russell Wilson, Seattle
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