Volume 22, #41 -- Thursday Night, May 28th, 2020
How To Know Which Keeper To Keep

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Howdy Folks,

Welcome to Friday.

The days are starting to actually seem like different days now and not a moment too soon.

I hope you didn't have anything planned as we've got a ton of new content for you.

Dive in and let's go.



A. The Footballguys Pro Plans Help You Win More At Fantasy Football
These Email Updates are great. We've been doing them for twenty years and our pledge to you is we'll bring a ton of value each day to you.

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B. How To Know Which Keeper To Keep
If you're in a keeper league, you're probably asking this question: "Who do I keep?". Sigmund Bloom has some answers. Spoiler Alert: it might not the guy you're thinking...

C. Who Is the Top Wide Receiver on a New Team?
The Footballguys staff discuss veteran wide receivers who changed teams over the offseason.

D. Detailed Stat Projections - Quarterbacks
Footbalguys has several sets of projections and even multiple from the IDP side. All updated this week. In this one, David Dodds projects quarterbacks for the season.

E. Detailed Stat Projections - Running Backs
Footbalguys has several sets of projections and even multiple from the IDP side. All updated this week. In this one, Bob Henry projects running backs for the season.

F. Detailed Stat Projections - Wide Receivers
Footbalguys has several sets of projections and even multiple from the IDP side. All updated this week. In this one, Jason Wood projects wide receivers for the season.

G. Detailed Stat Projections - Tight Ends
Footbalguys has several sets of projections and even multiple from the IDP side. All updated this week. In this one, Maurile Tremblay projects tight ends for the season.

H. Detailed Stat Projections - Defensive Linemen
Footbalguys has several sets of projections and even multiple from the IDP side. All updated this week. In this one, John Norton projects defensive linemen for the season.

I. Detailed Stat Projections - Linebackers
Footbalguys has several sets of projections and even multiple from the IDP side. All updated this week. In this one, Aaron Rudnicki projects linebackers for the season.

J. Draft Dominator Classic For Windows Updated
The Draft Dominator Classic is our tried and true standby for Drafting. Get the Windows version here.

K. Draft Dominator Classic For Mac Updated
The Draft Dominator Classic is our tried and true standby for Drafting. Get the Mac version here.

L. VBD Excel App Updated
For the guys who love the old school spreadsheet-style, our Value-Based Drafting (VBD) Excel App is your ticket.

M. Projections Dominator Updated
Make the projections work the way you want them to with our Projections Dominator App.

N. Auction Primer: Section III - Knowing Your League
Our Jeff Pasquino continues his Auction Series. In this one he dives into knowing your league.

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1. KC - K.C. begins negotiation with QB Patrick Mahomes

Source: The Kansas City Star - Sam Mellinger

The Kansas City Chiefs and QB Patrick Mahomes have begun contract negotiation on an extended deal. The new contract could be unlike any other before in the NFL, according to Sam Mellinger, of the Kansas City Star.

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Mahomes is going to be the highest-paid player in the NFL when this deal is done. It will be the richest contract rewarded in NFL history and it may be some time before any other player reaches the numbers Mahomes will be getting. The Chiefs are Super Bowl contenders so long as Mahomes is their quarterback and he's not going anywhere for several years to come.

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2. ARI - WR DeAndre Hopkins expects numbers to go up

Source: - Josh Weinfuss

Arizona Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins said Thursday, May 28, he expects his numbers to improve in the Cardinals' pass-happy offense. 'So myself, being a receiver, of course I see my stats going up. ... But I definitely see myself having one of my more productive seasons,' Hopkins said.

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We project him for around the same numbers he posted in 2019. Hopkins had 104 catches for 1,165 yards and seven touchdowns last year and those numbers sound about right for 2020 with his new team. He did have over 1,500 yards receiving and 11 touchdowns in 2018, so we have a good in between projection if you think he'll improve on his 2019 numbers. Either way, he's a superstar and a no-brainer starter every week.

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3. WAS - QB Dwayne Haskins impressing his OC

Source: - Charean Williams

Washington Redskins QB Dwayne Haskins has spent the last few months throwing with WRs Terry McLaurin and Kelvin Harmon and is 'doing a great job' so far this offseason, according to offensive coordinator Scott Turner.'We're putting a lot of work in, obviously abiding by the rules that the NFL has set forth - four days a week, two hours a day. We're kind of throwing a lot at them. In the beginning of every meeting, we do some quizzes. Just test their retention. When we're talking to him, he is speaking the language. It's pretty easy to tell if they get it or not. Dwayne's doing a great job. You can tell he's putting the work in away from the meeting time, and he's working at it and doing as much as he can. ... The time he's putting in with the receivers, Terry and Kelvin, they all have been throwing together for some time now. That's all positive. Obviously as a coach and with me, coming in new and putting in this new offense I'd love to have more time with him, but it is what it is. I think that we're doing a great job with making the most of the situation,' Turner told the writers during a video call Wednesday, May 27.

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Haskins was the team's 2019 first-round pick but that was the last coaching regime. We'll see if Ron Rivera likes him more than Kyle Allen in training camp. Haskins has tools and did flash just a bit last year as a rookie in limited action.

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4. BAL - QB Lamar Jackson best in league at big runs

Source: Pro Football Focus

Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson's 47 runs of 10-plus yards in the 2019 regular season were more than any other player - running back or quarterback, according to Pro Football Focus.

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Jackson is the most dangerous runner in the league, regardless of position. He's improving as a passer but is still going to be a threat with the rock in his hands and his mind on gashing defenses with his legs. Expect him to lead the league in this category again in 2020.

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5. BAL - RB Justice Hill to still have a role

Source: The Athletic - Jeff Zrebiec

Baltimore Ravens RB Justice Hill is expected to take a big jump in his second year in the NFL, according to head coach John Harbaugh Thursday, May 28. 'Is that really a problem to have four guys breaking off big runs and making guys miss? There's roles there for those guys,' Harbaugh said.

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Harbaugh says that he envisions a role for all four running backs on the roster. That could be a large headache for Fantasy GMs on a weekly basis. At the end of the day, Hill is going to be the no.4 back and have the smallest role in 2020.

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6. NO - Tim White cut

Source: The Athletic - Katherine Terrell

New Orleans Saints WR Tim White was waived Thursday, May 28.

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White was undrafted out of Arizona State in 2017. The Saints picked him up late last year as a practice squad player then they signed him to a futures contract earlier this year. With OT James Hurst signed on Thursday, the Saints needed to make some room on the roster.

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7. SEA - RB Carlos Hyde officially signs with SEA

Source: - John Boyle

Updating a previous report, free-agent RB Carlos Hyde (Texans) officially signed with the Seattle Seahawks Thursday, May 28. Official terms of the contract were not disclosed.

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We've known about this deal for some time and today it became official. Hyde had 1,000 yards rushing for the Texans last year but failed to get much interest in free agency. Seattle needed to sign him as a backup to Chris Carson since Rashaad Penny is likely to be on the PUP list to begin the regular season. Hyde (shoulder) played much of the 2019 season with a torn labrum and underwent surgery in February.

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8. LVR - Nick O'Leary on NFI list


Las Vegas Raiders TE Nick O'Leary (undisclosed) was placed on the Non-Football Injury list Thursday, May 28.

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This means O'Leary is done for the season, likely due to an injury he suffered working out on his own. O'Leary signed with the team just a couple of months ago for veteran depth. The Raiders move forward with Darren Waller, Jason Witten and Foster Moreau in the tight end room.

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9. LVR - Paul Butler returns to Vegas


Free-agent TE Paul Butler (Raiders) re-signed with the Las Vegas Raiders Thursday, May 28. Terms of the contract were not disclosed.

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This is the sixth time the Raiders have signed Butler over the last three years. He replaces Nick O'Leary on the roster as O'Leary was placed on the NFI list and is done for the season. He'll compete with Derek Carrier for the no.4 spot in the tight end room.

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10. PHI - Three WRs unlikely to make roster

Source: The Philadelphia Inquirer - Jeff McLane

Philadelphia Eagles WRs Deontay Burnett, Robert Davis and Shelton Gibson likely will have an uphill battle to make the final roster, in the opinion of The Philadelphia Inquirer's Jeff McLane.

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All of these players are guys we are monitoring but only in crazy deep dynasty formats. Burnett is a small, slot receiver but he was one of Sam Darnold's favorite targets back in college at USC. Davis was a sixth-round pick out of Georgia State in 2017 but injuries have plagued him as a pro. He's got a fine size/speed combination if healthy. The Eagles picked up Gibson in the fifth round of the 2017 NFL draft out of West Virginia. He only has three catches for 59 yards in his pro career. We'll see if any of these players can land somewhere else if they don't make the Eagles.

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11. JAX - Collin Johnson a huge target

Source: - John Shipley

Jacksonville Jaguars fifth-round pick WR Collin Johnson is a 6-foot-6, 222-pound target that thrived in the red zone. '(The Jaguars) mentioned mismatching my height with stuff and things like that, but obviously you can't teach height,' Johnson said. 'You know I'm thankful to be as tall as I am, but also I feel like a part of my game that I'm really good at is my route running, so I feel like I have more than just being a tall receiver,' Johnson said.

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Johnson is a big-bodied receiver who knows how to use his frame to box out smaller defenders. He knows how to manipulate defenders based on the coverage look and Johnson has great 'my ball' mentality when the pass is coming in. Johnson missed six games as a senior due to a hamstring injury and he doesn't get a ton of separation in his routes. We like monitoring him in dynasty formats.

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12. LAC - Joe Reed likely to be a gadget

Source: Chargers Wire - Gavino Borquez

Los Angeles Chargers fifth-round pick WR Joe Reed is expected to be used as a gadget player lining up in the slot, out wide and in the backfield. Reed forced 15 missed tackles on 77 receptions last year at Virginia, per Pro Football Focus.

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Watching Reed in college at Virginia was fun. At 225 pounds, Reed plays like a smaller man with quickness and explosion that make him a playmaker on the football field. He played 405 snaps out of the slot in 2019 and 193 snaps out wide. Reed has speed and can be moved around the formation but he is far from polished as a route runner. We'll monitor him in dynasty formats.

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13. PHI - Varied role expected for Jalen Reagor in 2020

Source: Inside the Birds - Geoff Mosher and Adam Caplan

Philadelphia Eagles WR Jalen Reagor is expected to be used in a 'variety of roles' - including out of the slot - and similar to the way Nelson Agholor was deployed during his breakout 2017 campaign in which he tallied 62 catches for 768 yards and eight touchdowns, according to Geoff Mosher and Adam Caplan.

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Reagor can play all over the field. His speed is best used outside and he played 657 snaps there for TCU in 2019. Reagor can also be utilized in the slot as evidenced by his 113 snaps played there last season for the Horned Frogs. Expect the Eagles, a team desperate for WR help, to move the 2020 first-round pick all over the field.

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14. DAL - QB Dak Prescott better with more options

Source: QB Data Mine

Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott was accurate on only 60.9 percent of his throws with three receivers running a route in 2019. However, that mark increased to 81.8 percent when he had four pass-catchers available to him and 79.3 percent with five receivers running a route.

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Prescott now has more firepower at the wide receiver position with the selection of CeeDee Lamb in the first round of the 2020 NFL draft. He'll team up with Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup to create one of the best WR trios in the league. Prescott could post even better numbers in 2020.

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15. LVR - QB Derek Carr was sharp late in games in 2019

Source: QB Data Mine

Las Vegas Raiders QB Derek Carr was 72.3 percent accurate on his throws in the fourth quarter of games in 2019 - the best such mark of any qualified quarterback last season.

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Carr is a solid starter but the Raiders are looking for an upgrade. That's why they brought Marcus Mariota in as a free agent to compete with Carr for the starting job. We expect Carr to win the job but this battle will have to shake out in training camp.

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16. HOU - WR Will Fuller got it done when he was healthy

Source: NFL Network - James Palmer

Houston Texans WR Will Fuller finished with 670 receiving yards in 2019 - the second-highest total for a player who played fewer than 12 games last season - although more than half of that total (357 yards) came in two of his 11 contests.

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Fuller is incredibly talented but he's always banged up. He's never played a full 16-game regular season as a pro and he might not get through this year unscathed. The Texans traded away DeAndre Hopkins and that could open up things for Fuller to do more...if he can stay healthy. He's at least a WR2 and every-week starter when Fuller is on the field.

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17. NYG - WR Golden Tate did a lot in little time

Source: NFL Network - James Palmer

New York Giants WR Golden Tate produced 676 receiving yards in 2019 - the highest total for a player who played fewer than 12 games last season.

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Tate appeared in 11 games in his first season with the Giants. His numbers made him the no.40 fantasy receiver in 2019 (standard-scoring leagues). If healthy for a full 16-game season, Tate should perform like a WR3/flex player in 2020.

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That'll do it for today, Folks. Thanks for reading and thanks for being part of Footballguys. We'll see you tomorrow with the Update.