Footballguys.com

Volume 22, #40 -- Wednesday Night, May 27th, 2020
12 Lessons From 2019 Fantasy Projections

You're subscribed as {{ subscriber.email_address }} - click HERE to unsubscribe.View in Web Browser

Thanks To Our Sponsor, Footballguys

Howdy Folks,

Good Thursday to you. It's another big day of content as we've got Draft Lists and Top 300's and Commish content and Auction information. And a killer look from Matt Waldman as he dives into lessons learned from 2019.

And the News and Notes you need as well.

Let's do this.

J

SITE NEWS

A. The Gut Check No.499: 12 Lessons From 2019 Fantasy Projections
Matt Waldman shares 12 lessons about player projections for the 2020 fantasy season with examples from last year.

B. Top 300 Players For PPR
David Dodds with the Top 300 Players in a PPR scoring format.

C. Top 300 Players For Non-PPR
David Dodds with the Top 300 Players in a Non-PPR scoring format.

D. Draft List For PPR
David Dodds takes the Top 300 Player List and factors it against Average Draft Position (ADP) to get a list more like we'd actually draft with. This one is for PPR scoring formats.

E. Draft List For Non-PPR
David Dodds takes the Top 300 Player List and factors it against Average Draft Position (ADP) to get a list more like we'd actually draft with. This one is for Non-PPR scoring formats.

F. Commissioner Guide, Part 7: Solving Disputes
Chad Parsons continues with the Commissioner Guide Series. In this one, he offers tips on solving league disputes.

G. Auction Primer Part 2 - Preparing For Auction Day
Jeff Pasquino continues his Auction Series. In this one, he dives into preparing for Auction Day.


Sponsored by Footballguys

Title Text

Body Text

  • Bullet

1. GB - RB Aaron Jones wants to stay with Packers

Source: ESPN.com - Rob Demovsky

Green Bay Packers RB Aaron Jones said he wants to spend his entire career with the Packers. Jones' agent said the two sides have talked about a new contract and will continue to negotiate.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

A fifth-round pick in the 2017 NFL draft, Jones is in the final year of his rookie contract. He's got a cap hit around $2.2 million in 2020. A new deal would likely make him one of the highest-paid running backs in the league. The Packers selected Boston College RB A.J. Dillon in the second round of the 2020 NFL draft and he's a big-bodied banger but not the all-purpose threat that Jones is.

Back to Top


2. NYJ - Le'Veon Bell looking forward to new OL

Source: NewYorkJets.com - Ethan Greenberg

New York Jets RB Le'Veon Bell said he is looking forward to playing behind the team's offensive line this upcoming season after they added several new linemen during the offseason, according to ESPN.com's Jeremy Fowler.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Bell should have better blocking in 2020 with the revamped offensive line. That should help him be more productive as a runner and receiver out of the backfield. Reports indicate the Jets could reduce his workload slightly to keep him fresh. That means Fantasy GMs should concider Bell a low-end RB2 with upside. His current ADP is RB20 (3.11) in 12-team PPR leagues.

Back to Top


3. LVR - QB Derek Carr working out with teammates

Source: ProFootballTalk.com - Darin Gantt

Las Vegas Raiders QB Derek Carr has been working out with some of his teammates at a Las Vegas Park, according to the Las Vegas Review-Journal's Rochelle Richards. WR Zay Jones, WR Hunter Renfrow and TE Darren Waller are among the players working out with Carr.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Carr will have to compete for the starting job in training camp. The Raiders went out and added Marcus Mariota in free agency to compete for the top spot on the depth chart. Carr has chemistry with receivers who were on the team last year like the ones he's working out with, and that should give him an edge in the competition.

Back to Top


4. NYJ - QB Sam Darnold Needs Improvement

Source: QB Data Mine

New York Jets QB Sam Darnold was accurate on 52 percent of his throws that traveled more than five yards downfield in 2019. Every other qualified quarterback was 57.1 percent accurate on similar throws.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Darnold needs to have more time to throw and he needs to be more accurate when he does. The Jets made moves in the draft (Denzel Mims) and free agency (Breshad Perriman) to boost the passing game. We'll see if further development and these new weapons help Darnold play better in 2020.

Back to Top


5. ATL - WR Julio Jones still a playmaking machine

Source: Pro Football Focus

Atlanta Falcons WR Julio Jones has recorded 286 receptions that have resulted in first downs or touchdowns since 2016, according to Pro Football Focus. Jones trailed only Michael Thomas (299) for the most over that span.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Jones is still a dominant player, although Fantasy GMs do gripe that he doesn't score enough touchdowns. As the Falcons passing game continues to develop we'll still see Jones at the top of the charts.

Back to Top


6. NO - WR Michael Thomas blazing an impressive trail

Source: Pro Football Focus

New Orleans Saints WR Michael Thomas has recorded an NFL-best 299 receptions that resulted in first downs or touchdowns since entering the league in 2016, according to Pro Football Focus.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

His Twitter handle says it all 'Can't Guard Mike' and that's the truth. Thomas has some help in the WR room this year as the team went out and added veteran Emmanuel Sanders in free agency. We'll see Thomas continue to dominate in 2020.

Back to Top


7. WAS - RB Adrian Peterson will have a role

Source: NBC Sports Washington - JP Finlay

Washington Redskins RB Adrian Peterson will have a role in the offense this upcoming season, according to offensive coordinator Scott Turner.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Peterson will have the role of lead back if Derrius Guice cannot stay healthy again. If Guice is able to stay healthy, then Peterson gives the team some power as a part-time back who would work in short-yardage and goal-line situations.

Back to Top


8. CLE - QB Baker Mayfield working on footwork

Source: The Cleveland Plain Dealer - Mary Kay Cabot

Cleveland Browns QB Baker Mayfield said he has been working on a change to his footwork that offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt asked him to try out. He said he is getting more comfortable with the new footwork.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Mayfield had a disappointing sophomore season in 2019. The Browns have built a better offensive line around him and he's got upgraded weapons in the passing game. That should help him have a bounce-back season (along with improved footwork) in 2020.

Back to Top


9. BAL - QB Lamar Jackson to work out with teammates

Source: ESPN.com - Jamison Hensley

Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is scheduled to work out with some of his teammates next week, according to WR Miles Boykin.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Jackson's going to keep his game sharp. He's developing as a passer and still the most dangerous runner in the league...at any position. Jackson has a current ADP of QB2 (2.08) in 12-team PPR leagues.

Back to Top


10. NYJ - Vyncint Smith may be top option to return kicks

Source: New York Post - Brian Costello

New York Jets WR Vyncint Smith is considered the leading candidate for the team's kick returner job this upcoming season. He averaged 29.9 yards per return last season on 10 returns.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Smith has good straight-line speed, so putting him as the kick returner makes sense. With talent added to the WR room this offseason in free agency and the draft, special teams is Smith's best bet to make the final roster.

Back to Top


FOOTBALLGUYS PICKS

Title Text - Detail. Pitch and link.



11. NYJ - WR Braxton Berrios expected to return punts

Source: New York Post - Brian Costello

New York Jets WR Braxton Berrios is expected to be the team's punt returner this upcoming season. He averaged 11.4 yards per punt return last season, which ranked second in the NFL.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Berrios is a very quick player who can make defenders miss in a small space. He could get some limited looks as a slot receiver from time to time as well.

Back to Top


12. CLE - DE Jadeveon Clowney has offer from Cleveland

Source: ESPN - Jake Trotter

Free-agent DE Jadeveon Clowney (Seahawks) has received the most lucrative contract offer from the Cleveland Browns, but Clowney has not accepted the offer at this point, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Reports indicate that Clowney has received multiple offers from the Browns, Seahawks and Titans but has yet to pick a new team. We'll see him sign somewhere before the start of training camp unless someone comes out with a larger offer before then.

Back to Top


13. PIT - WR Diontae Johnson played with injury

Source: ESPN - Brooke Pryor

Pittsburgh Steelers WR Diontae Johnson (groin) said he played most of the 2019 season with a groin injury and had to undergo surgery in February to repair the injury. He has not received full clearance to train at this point but hopes to be cleared in a few days.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Johnson did a fantastic job as a rookie in 2019. His production was even more impressive considering he wasn't playing with QB Ben Roethlisberger past Week 2. Roethlisberger is back and that should boost the entire passing game, including Johnson as the no.2 receiver opposite of JuJu Smith-Schuster.

Back to Top


14. IND - WR Parris Campbell healthy

Source: The Athletic - Zak Keefer

Indianapolis Colts WR Parris Campbell said he has been running routes at full speed for the last two months and has recovered from all of the injuries he dealt with during the 2019 season.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Campbell had to deal with hand and foot injuries last year as a rookie and it limited his production. He played in only seven games as a result of those injuries. Healthy now, we're interested to see how quickly he can build chemistry with new starting QB Philip Rivers. Campbell has the burst and speed to make big plays anytime he touches the ball.

Back to Top


15. ATL - Throwing to WR Calvin Ridley pays off

Source: Sports Info Solutions

Atlanta Falcons WR Calvin Ridley hauled in 63 of 75 catchable targets and scored seven touchdowns in 2019. Additionally, Atlanta quarterbacks enjoyed a passer rating of 114.7 when throwing in his direction - the 11th-best passer rating for any receiver or tight end with at least 50 targets. The passer rating mark was lower than it was when Ridley was a rookie in 2018; he finished eighth among receivers and tight ends with at least 50 targets at 119.9.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

If healthy, Ridley should be in line for over 100 targets in a season for the first time in his career. Ridley's touchdown rate is among the highest in the NFL over the past two seasons. His game makes him a flex-worthy player each week for Fantasy GMs in 2020.

Back to Top


16. GB - Allen Lazard kind to his quarterback

Source: Sports Info Solutions

Green Bay Packers WR Allen Lazard corralled 35 of his 43 catchable targets and scored three touchdowns in 2019, contributing to a passer rating of 115.6 when Aaron Rodgers threw in his direction. The passer rating mark ranked ninth in the league among receivers and tight ends with at least 50 targets.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

The big-bodied former Iowa State receiver had a breakout season in 2019 with 35 catches for 477 yards and three touchdowns. He needs to be more consistent with his targets and his role within the offense to be more fantasy relevant. We'll see if he can win the no.2 job opposite of Davante Adams. He'll compete with free agent signing Devin Funchess and 2019 disappointment Marquez Valdes-Scantling for playing time.

Back to Top


17. WAS - QB uncertainty didn't affect WR Terry McLaurin

Source: Sports Info Solutions

Washington Redskins WR Terry McLaurin hauled in 58 of 67 catchable targets and scored seven touchdowns as a rookie in 2019. Additionally, quarterbacks enjoyed a passer rating of 115.8 when throwing in his direction - the eighth-best passer rating for any receiver or tight end with at least 50 targets.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Washington had problems at the quarterback position last year but that didn't stop McLaurin from enjoying a fine rookie season. He was the lone bright spot in that passing game and we're excited to see what he can do for an encore this season. McLaurin already has chemistry with QB Dwayne Haskins, and the 2019 first-round pick should be the starting quarterback for Washington this year...if he can beat out Kyle Allen in camp. McLaurin is a WR2 with upside for Fantasy GMs.

Back to Top


18. HOU - WR Kenny Stills got it done with limited chances

Source: Sports Info Solutions

Houston Texans WR Kenny Stills caught 40 of 45 catchable targets and scored four touchdowns in 2019. Additionally, quarterbacks enjoyed a passer rating of 124.1 when throwing in his direction - the fifth-best passer rating for any receiver or tight end with at least 50 targets.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Stills should have continued importance in the Texans passing game. It will be interesting to see how they look without superstar WR DeAndre Hopkins on the field. That could mean more targets for Stills in 2020 who could have deep flex appeal in 2020.

Back to Top


19. NO - QBs felt good throwing to TE Jared Cook

Source: Sports Info Solutions

New Orleans Saints TE Jared Cook caught 43 of 52 catchable targets and scored a career-high nine touchdowns in 2019. Additionally, quarterbacks enjoyed a passer rating of 137.0 when throwing in his direction - the best passer rating for any receiver or tight end with at least 50 targets.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Throwing to Cook makes good things happen...especially in the Saints offense. He's always been athletically gifted but Cook flourished last year in his first season in New Orleans. He's a TE1 for Fantasy GMs and could end up as a top-5 player at his position in 2020.

Back to Top


That'll do it for today, Folks. Thanks for reading and thanks for being part of Footballguys. We'll see you tomorrow with the Update.

Peace,

J