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Volume 22, #34 -- Thursday Night, May 21st, 2020
Updated Stat Projections Plus News And Notes And More

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Howdy Folks,

Welcome to Friday. It's a big day for new content with Wide Receiver Tiers, updated Stat Projections, FFPC Average Draft Position, and Part One of our Commissioner Guide. And of course, the News and Notes you need.

And last thing, if you're missing The Last Dance documentary, our friend Kendall Baker of Axios has a sweet list of his Top 50 Sports Documentaries.

Let's do this.

J

SITE NEWS

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B. Wide Receiver Tiers, Targets, And Players To Avoid
Our Sigmund Bloom with a monster look at wide receiver tiers for early drafts with strategy on who to target and avoid.

C. Detailed Stat Projections - Quarterbacks
Rankings are great and we love those too. But to get the edge over your competition, Detailed Stat Projections are where it's at. Our David Dodds has his Quarterbacks here.

D. Detailed Stat Projections - Running Backs
Rankings are great and we love those too. But to get the edge over your competition, Detailed Stat Projections are where it's at. Our David Dodds has his Running Backs here.

E. Detailed Stat Projections - Wide Receivers
Rankings are great and we love those too. But to get the edge over your competition, Detailed Stat Projections are where it's at. Our David Dodds has his Wide Receivers here.

F. Detailed Stat Projections - Tight Ends
Rankings are great and we love those too. But to get the edge over your competition, Detailed Stat Projections are where it's at. Our David Dodds has his Tight Ends here.

G. FFPC Best Ball Average Draft Position Data
Our friends at the FFPC put on some of the best and most competitive mid and high stakes leagues anywhere.

We have some insight into how their Team Owners are drafting and share that with you here.

H. Commissioner Guide, Part 1: Getting Started
Our Chad Parsons with Part One of the Footballguys guide to starting a new fantasy football league and being the league's commissioner.


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1. DAL - QB Dak Prescott turns down huge deal?

Source: NBC - Chris Simms

Updating an ongoing story, Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott turned down a five-year, $175 million contract offer, according to NBC Sports' Chris Simms. It would have made Prescott the highest-paid quarterback in NFL history.

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The numbers is huge but it's all about the language of the deal. Prescott could set the market for the position, but it won't be long until Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) crushes that deal. Prescott's representation reportedly is seeking a deal that will play him more than $45 million for the final season of a new contract.

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2. KC - Talks with QB Patrick Mahomes to begin this summer

Source: 105.3 The Fan

Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes had his fifth-year option picked up for the 2021 season this offseason, but team chairman Clark Hunt said Wednesday, May 20, the team will begin negotiations on a long-term contract extension this summer. 'What he has said and what we've said, both sides is, he wants to be a Kansas City Chief for life, and that's our mentality as well,' Hunt said. 'We want him to play his entire career in Kansas City, and that's what we're going to be shooting for.'

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Mahomes is going to set the new mark for quarterbacks. We could see him get a deal that pays him around $50 million per year. No matter what, the Chiefs aren't going to let him hit the open market anytime soon.

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3. BAL - QB Lamar Jackson outstanding against blitz

Source: ProFootballFocus.com

Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson threw 24 touchdown passes against the blitz this past season.

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Defenses are often nearly helpless against Jackson. If you blitz him he only gets better. It's a similar situation with Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City. We'll continue to see Jackson develop as a passer while he also gashes opponents on the ground with his elite rushing skill.

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4. TB - TE Rob Gronkowski close to playing weight

Source: NFL.com - Kevin Patra

Tampa Bay Buccaneers TE Rob Gronkowski said he is around 257 pounds at this point and expects to play at 260 to 265 pounds this upcoming season. He was at 240 pounds during his retirement.

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It doesn't take long for these top-tier athletes to get back to playing weight. Gronkowski is in a cramped and super talented tight end room with O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate in Tampa. He's a favorite target of Brady and could be featured in the red zone.

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5. MIA - QB Josh Rosen drawing trade interest?

Source: NFL Network - Michael Giardi

Miami Dolphins QB Josh Rosen has been the focus of a few trade calls this offseason, according to NFL Network's Michael Giardi, who also added the Dolphins are reportedly 'in no hurry to trade him.'

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Rosen is the odd man out in the Dolphins quarterback room. A first-round pick in the 2018 NFL draft, Rosen failed to impress with the team that drafted him (Arizona) and was so bad last year in Miami that he got benched for Ryan Fitzpatrick. Word behind the scene is that Rosen is working hard and is not a distraction but his game is just not translating to the pro level. Some team may want to take on chance on him with a late-round draft pick but he's running out of time to turn things around...even as a backup-caliber quarterback.

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6. SF - RB Raheem Mostert eyeing 200-plus carries

Source: The Athletic - David Lombardi

San Francisco 49ers RB Raheem Mostert has added some muscle to his frame - he played last season around 205 pounds - in anticipation that he will handle at least 200 carries in 2020.

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Mostert finished the season strong for the 49ers and he was good in the postseason. He will compete for playing time with Tevin Coleman and 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is known for using multiple backs which limits everyone's fantasy value in this backfield. We'll see how this shakes out during training camp but things could also change with Shanahan's usage of running backs during the regular season.

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7. TEN - WR A.J. Brown working out with teammate

Source: ESPN.com - Turron Davenport

Tennessee Titans WR A.J. Brown said he has been working out with QB Logan Woodside and catches passes from him two to three times a week. Brown planned to work out with QB Ryan Tannehill this offseason before the restrictions.

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Brown is getting work in with the Titans backup, and he'll get back with Tannehill when restrictions are lifted. The second-year pro should continue to progress as a pro. He just showed us the tip of the iceberg last year as a rookie. This year, Brown could finish as a top-5 fantasy receiver. He was the no.8 fantasy WR last year in standard-scoring leagues.

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8. NO - New Orleans to hold competition for backup job

Source: NewOrleans.Football - Nick Underhill

New Orleans Saints QBs Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill will have to compete and beat out the competition to back up QB Drew Brees in 2020, according to head coach Sean Payton Thursday, May 21.

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The word is Hill is going to get more playing time this year, even if that's as a gadget/third-string quarterback. Winston has all the starting experience and is the better passer, so we're expecting him to win the primary backup job behind Brees.

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9. MIA - Malcolm Perry listed as running back

Source: The Miami Herald - Barry Jackson

Miami Dolphins WR Malcolm Perry is listed as a running back on the team's official roster, but he is also expected to be used as a slot receiver and possible returner.

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Perry was a college quarterback at Navy, but the 2020 seventh-round pick could work as a Julian Edelman-type in the NFL. He averaged 7.1 yards per carry and can easily make defenders miss in the open field.

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10. SEA - QB Russell Wilson successful against blitz

Source: ProFootballFocus.com

Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson threw 13 touchdown passes against the blitz this past season.

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Wilson has always been able to beat the blitz with ease. It's tough to get home on him because he's athletic and keeps his eyes downfield when scrambling.

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11. PHI - Philadelphia looking at three RBs

Source: ESPN.com - Tim McManus

Free-agent RB Devonta Freeman (Falcons), RB Carlos Hyde (Texans) and RB LeSean McCoy (Chiefs) are the three running backs the Philadelphia Eagles are currently considering signing, according to sources.

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The Eagles are looking for veteran depth behind Miles Sanders. It would be easy to bring back McCoy to the Eagles, and he knows what to do in that offense. He might be the cheaper of all the options listed. We should see all three of these backs sign somewhere before the start of training camp.

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12. NFL - WR Josh Gordon looking for reinstatement

Source: ProFootballTalk.com - Mike Florio

Free-agent WR Josh Gordon (Seahawks) plans to apply for reinstatement in the near future, according to a source.

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Gordon is not the same player he used to be but there should be some team interested in bringing him in as a backup receiver. Last year in five games with the Seahawks, Gordon snared seven passes for 139 yards. He also played six games for the Patriots in 2019, catching 20 passes for 287 yards and one touchdown.

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13. LAR - OC excited about Cam Akers

Source: The Athletic - Jourdan Rodrigue

Los Angeles Rams RB Cam Akers is a player that offensive coordinator Kevin O'Connell is excited about working with this upcoming season.

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Akers is a player to get excited about, but his situation is going to be a bit problematic for Fantasy GMs. He's a tough runner who needs to hang onto the rock. Akers has a three-down skill set but will have to split time with Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson in 2020. We'll have to see how this battle shakes out in training camp.

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14. NYJ - RB Frank Gore did not consider retirement

Source: New York Daily News - Manish Mehta

New York Jets RB Frank Gore said he did not consider retirement this offseason because he believed that he can play at least one more season.

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Of course Gore did not consider retirement! It seems like he's going to play forever but we honestly know this could be the final year for him. He'll work in behind Le'Veon Bell with the Jets in 2020.

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15. NFL - QB Cam Newton throws, works out online

Source: NFL.com - Kevin Patra

Free-agent QB Cam Newton (Panthers) posted a series of videos this week on Instagram that show his surgically repaired foot is healthy, and his injured shoulder also is up to par.

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Newton is still out there on the open market, but he'll latch on with a team before training camp. There is debate about whether or not he'd be comfortable with a backup role. However, most of the spots where he could at least compete for the starting job (Chicago, Jacksonville) are already filled.

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16. DET - Matt Patricia talks D'Andre Swift

Source: Detroit Free Press - Evan Petzold

Detroit Lions head coach Matt Patricia discussed drafting RB D'Andre Swift and the team's utilization of the running back position during a Wednesday, May 20, appearance on NBC's 'The Rich Eisen Show.' 'For me, we're going to try to play whoever is going to help us in that particular play, that particular game, whatever it might be,' he said. 'If you're out there for the very first play, or you get out there on the second play, I don't really understand what the difference is in a starter in that case. But, certainly, we're excited to be able to acquire Swift and get him on our team and seeing what he can do. Sometimes you put two or three running backs out there. We will see what happens.' Patricia said he didn't have to think twice about landing Swift in Round 2 of the 2020 NFL Draft. 'Everything checked the boxes for us, a guy that we think is dynamic enough in the run-game, explosive, big playmaker,' Patricia said, 'but (he) also can catch the ball, get out of the backfield, open up the formation and just put a lot of pressure on the defense to make plays we need.'

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The Lions have been looking for 'that guy' at the running back position since Barry Sanders retired. Swift was arguably the most talented back in this class and he's got a three-down skill set so he doesn't need to come off the field. If we had more confidence about Patricia's direction of the team we'd be more excited. Right now, Fantasy GMs are taking Swift off the board at RB35 (8.02) in 12-team PPR leagues.

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17. TEN - WR A.J. Brown in rare company

Source: TitansOnline.com - Jim Wyatt

Tennessee Titans WR A.J. Brown in 2019 became the first rookie since Hall of Famer Randy Moss (1998) to have a minimum of 50 catches, 1,000 receiving yards and five touchdowns while averaging 17-plus yards per catch, plus four touchdown catches of 50-plus yards, according to Jim Wyatt of the team's website.

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The Titans have something special with the 2019 second-round pick. Brown is also the only NFL rookie since 1970 with 1,000-plus receiving yards and an average of 20-plus yards per reception, and he led the NFL with 605 receiving yards over his final six games of the regular season.

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18. NYJ - NYJ anticipating rebound from TE Chris Herndon

Source: New York Post - Brian Costello

New York Jets TE Chris Herndon was limited to one game and one catch last season after suffering a setback with his hamstring following his season-opening suspension. However, his lack of time on the field has not dampened the enthusiasm of head coach Adam Gase.'I think everyone can agree that we were all excited to see what he could do going into last year. We felt good about so many things, and it just didn't work out with the suspension and the injury. Then we finally get him on the field and he played like (18) plays. He's a guy that we're excited to get back and can't really wait to get going. And see how he'll fit in with everything,' Gase told the New York Post.

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Remember what Herndon was in 2018 (39 catches, 502 yards, four touchdowns) and remember the excitement that Fantasy GMs had for him entering last year? That could be there again if he's healthy. Was he a flash in the pan or is something more? Herndon has intriguing upside but there are a ton of questions around his game.

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19. HOU - Coach optimistic about WR Will Fuller

Source: Houston Chronicle - Aaron Wilson

Houston Texans WR Will Fuller (groin) appears to be on track with his recovery from surgery, according to offensive coordinator Tim Kelly.

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In four seasons (42 games), Fuller has never played a full 16-game season due to various injuries. We'll see if he can finally play all year long as the team needs him in a big way since they traded away DeAndre Hopkins. Fuller can be drafted as a WR4 with upside.

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That'll do it for today, Folks. Thanks for reading and thanks for being part of Footballguys. We'll see you tomorrow with the Update.

Peace,

J