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Volume 22, #19 -- Wednesday Night, May 6th, 2020
Exploitable Player Props, Jameis Winston A Dynasty Buy, And MORE

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Howdy Folks,

Good Thursday to you.

I hope you're staying safe and sound out there. I'm rolling along here into what's been a welcome East Tennessee spring.

We've got some fun new articles for you plus another edition of the Footballguys Dynasty Show.

Side note - if I ever do Random Shots for baseball, I'm all about that Korean League bat flipping. So good.

Now let's get to it.

J

SITE NEWS

A. 24 Exploitable Preseason Player Prop Bets
Our David Dodds walks through preseason prop bet edges at DraftKings Sportsbook.

B. Best Ball Rankings: Top 250
Our James Brimacombe with his Post-NFL Draft Best Ball Rankings.

C. The Footballguys Dynasty Show - Episode 2 - Jameis Winston and More
Our Chad Parsons and Jordan McNamara are back with another episode of the Foot. They dive into why Jameis Winston is one of the biggest Superflex buys in all of Dynasty and much more.


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1. JAX - RB Leonard Fournette staying put

Source: ESPN.com - Michael DiRocco

Jacksonville Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette will be a big part of the offense in 2020, according to general manager David Caldwell. Fournette was involved in trade talks in the offseason.

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The Jaguars could find no takers for Fournette on the trade block. He stays now and should be utilized early and often as a runner and receiver out of the backfield. However, he is unlikely to get the total number of carries and targets that he had last year due to additions like Chris Thompson to the backfield. He was the No.13 running back (standard-scoring leagues) last year with a heavy workload, so expect that number to dip to more low-end RB2 production for Fantasy GMs.

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2. KC - Clyde Edwards-Helaire stands out in air

Source: ESPN.com - Adam Teicher

Kansas City Chiefs first-round pick RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire's ability in the receiving game is what the team felt made him stand out from the rest of the backs in the draft. 'I was on the same team as (Washington Redskins RB) Derrius Guice in high school ... so I had to find a different way to get on the field,' Edwards-Helaire said. They wanted me to get on the field so I started playing slot receiver, and I kind of hopped back and forth from slot to the backfield in a two-back set, so ultimately it was just kind of something that was part of my DNA.'

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Edwards-Helaire can be a special player at the pro level. He's a compact runner who runs with great contact balance, and it's really tough to bring him down with just an arm tackle. That balance and agility really help him in the open space as a receiver. Edwards-Helaire is going to compete for the starting job with Damien Williams in training camp. Both are talented, so expect the Chiefs to implement some form of RBBC for the 2020 season.

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3. GB - AJ Dillon a bit of a physical marvel

Source: Packers.com - Mike Spofford

Green Bay Packers RB AJ Dillon weighed 247 pounds last spring prior to his final year at Boston College and reportedly only had five percent body fat, according to former position coach Brian White.'It's amazing, when you see him with his shirt off, he's got this little skinny waist and these huge shoulders, and these legs of tree trunks that are beyond anything you've ever seen,' White told Packers.com.

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Dillon is big, powerful and loves to initiate contact. He is tough to bring down and knows how to win collisions. There's not a lot of nuance to Dillon's game, and he sometimes looks for a defender rather than watching for a hole or a cutback lane. We'll see how he works into the Packers backfield in 2020.

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4. TEN - RB Derrick Henry makes hay after contact

Source: Pro Football Focus

Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry is the only running back in the league with at least 500 carries since 2017 to average at least four yards after contact, according to Pro Football Focus.

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There's no need for advanced data here. Everyone who has seen Henry play one down knows he is tough to bring down when he builds a head of steam. Expect him to put up similar numbers before and after contact in 2020.

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5. DEN - Jerry Jeudy was atop Denver's board?

Source: NFL Beat Writers

Denver Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy was the top-ranked player on the team's draft board, according to general manager John Elway.'We met with him in Indianapolis (at the 2020 NFL Scouting Combine) and really liked him and liked his mentality. ... Jerry was our guy from the get-go,' Elway said.

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Jeudy was largely considered the best receiver in one of the greatest receiver classes in NFL history. His speed, body control and quickness make him a great target for second-year QB Drew Lock. Jeudy is sometimes compared to Odell Beckham Jr. and has star ability from day one. He'll start on the outside opposite of emerging star Courtland Sutton.

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6. DEN - QB Drew Lock talks new Denver offense

Source: Denver7 Sports - Troy Renck

Denver Broncos QB Drew Lock addressed what he has learned about offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur's system after studying it since the pandemic shutdown began. 'There's definitely more possibilities for us to press the ball downfield, which I definitely think plays into my strengths and the receivers we have on this team,' said Lock Tuesday, May 5. 'We have guys who can fly down the field. It gives me the option of changing a curl route to a go route if we get man (coverage). I think we will press the ball downfield more than we did last year.'

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The Broncos have went 'all in' with Lock as their quarterback. He was 4-1 as a starter last year during his rookie season and the team hopes they (finally) have their franchise quarterback. With all that speed on offense, and with new OC Pat Shurmur, Lock could be an exciting QB2 for Fantasy GMs if he continues to develop.

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7. LVR - WR Keelan Doss signs tender

Source: The Athletic - Vic Tafur

Las Vegas Raiders exclusive rights free-agent WR Keelan Doss signed his one-year tender offer Wednesday, May 6. Financial terms were not disclosed.

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Doss was picked up as an undrafted free agent in 2019 out of UC-Davis. He's got size and decent speed as a receiver, and Doss caught 11 passes for 113 yards last year. He was an exclusive rights free agent so he didn't have much of a choice but to sign the tender. The Raiders WR room is a lot more cramped after the draft and the addition of Henry Ruggs III and Bryan Edwards. Doss is no lock for the 53-man roster.

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8. BAL - J.K. Dobbins seen as three-down RB

Source: ESPN.com - Jamison Hensley

Baltimore Ravens RB J.K. Dobbins has the skills to be a three-down running back in the NFL, according to general manager Eric DeCosta. DeCosta pointed out Dobbins' durability and his fit in the offense.

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The Ravens are loaded with talent at the running back position. Getting Dobbins in the draft just makes a strength for them stronger. Dobbins is natural and creative as a runner, but it's his skill as a receiver that really stands out. He's certainly a three-down player and will challenge Mark Ingram for the top spot in the Ravens backfield.

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9. BAL - James Proche under contract

Source: The Athletic - Jeff Zrebiec

Baltimore Ravens sixth-round draft choice WR James Proche signed a four-year contract with the Ravens Wednesday, May 6. Financial terms were not disclosed.

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Proche is a strong slot receiver with a nose for the end zone (27 touchdowns over the last two years). He has amazing ball skills and thrives on winning contested catches. Proche lacks long speed but his competitive nature on intermediate routes could make him a favorite target of QB Lamar Jackson. We'll see how Proche fits into the pecking order at wide receiver for the Ravens. He's likely competing for the No.4 spot in the room.

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10. LVR - Jon Gruden excited by Bryan Edwards

Source: NFL Beat Writers

Las Vegas Raiders WR Bryan Edwards dealt with his fair share of injuries in college (a meniscus tear in November of 2019 as well as a concussion and sports hernia surgery in 2017), but that was hardly a detriment to head coach Jon Gruden, who was thrilled when the Raiders were able to select him in the third round of the 2020 NFL Draft.'I was like a dog trying to get back in the house (trying to get general manager) Mike Mayock to pull the trigger on this. I was excited to get Edwards, you have no idea,' Gruden said.

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Edwards, a third-round pick out of South Carolina in the 2020 NFL draft, is a big-bodied target who can win passes in the air. He's a long-strider who does a good job of tracking passes down the field. Edwards is not sudden and he needs to learn how to run better routes if he's going to be a solid pro. We'll see how he works into the mix behind fellow rookie Henry Ruggs III, veteran Tyrell Williams and second-year slot receiver Hunter Renfrow.

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11. HOU - Four-man rushes troubled QB Deshaun Watson

Source: QB Data Mine

Houston Texans QB Deshaun Watson completed only 52 percent of his passes against a four-man rush in 2019 - the second-worst mark in the league.

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The Texans offensive line is a work in progress to say the least. Watson thrives when he's blitzed because he's got the athleticism to keep plays alive with his feet and evade the rush. He needs to be better when he's not pressured in 2020.

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12. IND - QB Philip Rivers did good work on first down

Source: QB Data Mine

Indianapolis Colts QB Philip Rivers completed 64.9 percent of his first-down passing attempts as a member of the Los Angeles Chargers in 2019 - the fifth-best mark in the league.

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That was with the Chargers and now he's with the Colts. We'll see if he can continue that early-down success with his new team. Rivers threw too many interceptions last year and needs to cut that down in a big way if things are going to work out for one year with the Colts.

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13. NYG - QB Daniel Jones thrived on play-action

Source: QB Data Mine

New York Giants QB Daniel Jones completed 64.6 percent of his passes on play-action throws as a rookie - the eighth-best mark in the league. Conversely, he was a 51.3 percent passer on straight dropbacks in 2019.

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Jones does a good job going down the field if he's got time. The Giants have made moves to improve their offensive line, which should make Jones even more dangerous on such passes.

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That'll do it for today, Folks. Thanks for reading and thanks for being part of Footballguys. We'll see you tomorrow with the Update.

Peace,

J