Photo: Isaiah J. Downing, USA Today Sports

Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season, I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.

Week 12 was good for general picks and Picks of the Week, but once again shuffling around the order of the teasers really clipped my win percentage.  That probably strongly hints that the Best Bets are overexposed here, so something to consider for Week 13 and forward.  But now it is time to look ahead again with 16 more games on the slate for Week 13.  Plenty of big spreads this week with three games expected to have blowout potential (favorites by two scores) but there are also a lot of close matchups (seven games at 3.5 points or less).  At first glance, it’s going to be a tricky week.

Here we go:

Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.

Teams on a Bye Week – NONE (Byes are over!)

Teams coming off of a Bye Week – NONE

(Thursday) WASHINGTON (+1) at DALLAS
Two teams match up on Thursday exactly a week after playing their last game on Thanksgiving, so both are on equal footing when it comes to time off.  So much for the extra rest – that will have to wait one more week for both franchises.  Both teams are barely hanging on to slim playoff chances, and Dallas looks a far cry from the team they were with Ezekiel Elliott in their backfield.  That just explains the offensive woes (along with an offensive line that is falling apart).  The defense also sorely misses Sean Lee, and Philip Rivers just tore that secondary apart last week. Washington is far from a strong opponent, but Kirk Cousins should have his way against Dallas and with how much the Cowboys are struggling, I see this as an easy Washington win, even on the road.  PICK: Washington

MINNESOTA (+3) at ATLANTA 
The Minnesota Vikings are 9-2, yet they are getting points this week.  I get that Julio Jones just had a monster game against Tampa Bay – but the Vikings are just so much better on defense than the Buccaneers that any comparison is just laughable.  I get that we all were waiting for Jones to break off a big game and the Vikings are not necessarily the who’s who of fantasy studs, but they did just manhandle a very good Rams team that looks rather strong.  I just cannot pass up taking a 9-2 team getting points, even on the road.  PICK: Vikings

DETROIT (+3) at BALTIMORE 
The Ravens do have a strong defense, but we just saw (for those of you who actually watched Monday Night Football) that Baltimore can be picked apart by a good receiver.  Detroit offers both Golden Tate and Marvin Jones, who both should be pushing for 100 yards in Baltimore this week.  The big reason to take the Lions really has to do with the rest, as Detroit gets 10 days off while the Ravens play on a short week.  Give me the better team getting points with more rest, especially this late in the season.  PICK: Lions

NEW ENGLAND (-8.5) at BUFFALO
How can you not side with the Patriots here?  They are beating teams convincingly (124-56 the past three weeks) and have a seven game winning streak.  Buffalo is 6-5 and just went to Kansas City and beat the Chiefs, but the Chiefs are falling apart right now. New England is starting to peak at the right time (just like they seem to do every year) and in a divisional contest I expect them to go to Buffalo and win by double digits.  PICK:  Patriots

CHICAGO (-3) vs. SAN FRANCISCO 
I really do not want to pick a side in this one, but I am supposed to address all the games on the schedule.  How’s that for a ringing endorsement?  The Bears and the 49ers are both very bad teams, and I do not know which one is the better side to take here.  Considering a 0-0 game is rather unlikely (but not impossible), I am going to take the road team simply because they are going to go with the quarterback that they just added via a trade (Jimmy Garoppolo).  He came in late last week and threw a touchdown on the final play of the game, which could be the one reason to hang your hat on the 49ers establishing some offense here.  If you must pick a side, take the 49ers, but try and avoid this game if at all possible.  PICK: 49ers

GREEN BAY (EVEN) vs. TAMPA BAY
If the Packers are to have any chance of the playoffs, they need to win this game (and also next week against Cleveland).  Even with Jameis Winston likely back this week, that is not going to fix the woes that exist in the Tampa Bay secondary.  This could be a rather high scoring game, but I will take the home team in semi-cold weather that just put up a very strong fight in Pittsburgh last week.  PICK:  Packers

TENNESSEE (-6.5) vs. HOUSTON
Las Vegas did a nice job putting up a line here, as I would love the Titans giving far fewer points – but I would really lean to Houston getting a head start of a touchdown or more.  Tennessee struggled for no good reason against the Colts last week, but with Houston playing on one less day and again on the road, I have to take the Titans. 

MIAMI (+1) vs. DENVER
Let’s not beat around the bush here – both of these teams are not very good at all.  Denver may have the better defense, but both struggle mightily on offense and this could be a very low scoring affair.  Jay Cutler is due back but I am not so sure that is an upgrade here.  If I had to pick one word to describe this game it would be “Avoid”.  I will reluctantly take Miami at home with Denver traveling to Florida for an early kickoff, but overall I do not like this matchup at all.  PICK: Dolphins

NEW YORK JETS (+3.5) vs. KANSAS CITY  
Great, a matchup of two teams I have no desire to select.  The Chiefs have fallen completely apart since starting off the season 5-0, losing 5 of 6 since that hot start.  The Jets always seem to put up a good fight, either winning or losing by one possession in their last six contests.  The Chiefs just went to MetLife Stadium two weeks ago and lost to the Giants in windy conditions, and their offense looks to still be adrift.  The Bills just went to Kansas City and won, and I believe that the Jets at home are better than the Bills – so I am willing to take the home underdog and the points, and another upset of the Chiefs would not surprise me one bit.  PICK: Jets

JACKSONVILLE (-9) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
If there is one theme you will get from me for this week, it is a lack of confidence in several of these matchups.  On paper, the Jaguars and their defense is far superior than the Colts, but these two teams always find a way to keep it close.  Indianapolis just put up a solid fight against the Titans at home but lost when it counted, and I believe the Colts will do the same again this week.  It might take another defensive score for the Jaguars to cover this big spread, but I think it can and will happen here.  PICK:  Jaguars 

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-13.5) vs. CLEVELAND 
I have no issue in continuing to pick on Cleveland.  It has worked all year, and I see no reason why it can’t continue.  Josh Gordon may be back in action, but I do not believe he is enough to keep it close against a well-rested Chargers team coming off of a big win in Dallas.  The Chargers get it done in dominant fashion at home, 31-13.  PICK:  Chargers 

OAKLAND (-7) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
“Ugly Game Week” continues with the Giants heading west to take on the Raiders.  Word is that Eli Manning is out for this week and Geno Smith will be starting for the Giants at quarterback.  Even without Michael Crabtree (suspended, fighting), the Raiders can put up enough points and play well enough to take on Geno Smith and the modest offense that the Giants can generate these days and get a victory.  Oakland knows that they have to win this game to keep any playoff hopes alive, and I think they can and barely cover the big point spread.  PICK:  Raiders 

NEW ORLEANS (-4) vs. CAROLINA
Carolina picked up a victory at the Jets last week, but the hotter team in the NFC South has been the Saints.  They may not be the sexy pick this week after the loss to the Rams last week, but a trip home to regroup and get ready for the Panthers should get them just right.  New Orleans has suffered some losses on defense, but Carolina only has a few assets to push those weaknesses.  These two teams faced off in Week 3 with the Saints winning 34-13, with Cam Newton throwing for under 200 yards and three interceptions.  Most of the receiving production went to Christian McCaffrey and Devin Funchess, but Greg Olsen is back – which makes you think that things could improve.  Digging deeper, only Rob Gronkowski has a game with more than three catches against New Orleans.  Overall, this looks like another win for New Orleans by more than a touchdown.  PICK:  Saints

LOS ANGELES RAMS (-6.5) at ARIZONA
The Rams are rolling and the Cardinals are playing out the string with Blaine Gabbert under center.  Honestly the Cardinals have fared reasonably well with Gabbert, as it has been the run game and Adrian Peterson that has fallen by the wayside.  Los Angeles just defeated the Saints handily last week and the Cardinals look way less impressive than New Orleans.  Take the Rams by way more than a touchdown in this spot.  PICK:  Rams

PHILADELPHIA (-5.5) at SEATTLE
Sunday Night Football has a great matchup this week as the Eagles travel to Seattle for a big NFC clash in the Emerald City.  Russell Wilson will have to continue to run the offense (literally) for the Seahawks, as both the passing and rushing games all start with the ball in his hands.  Philadelphia is the hottest team in the league, but that will be tested this week with a long trip to Seattle.  The Seahawks are a tough home team, but with so many injuries to their secondary, Carson Wentz could be poised to shine in the national broadcast limelight and add more weight to his MVP candidacy.  I like the Eagles to continue to roll on with their dominant offense, defense and special teams.  PICK:  Eagles

(Monday) PITTSBURGH (-5) at CINCINNATI
An AFC North contest closes out Week 13 with the Steelers heading to Cincinnati to face the Bengals on Monday.  Once again, I am just going with the better team on both offense and defense and am willing to give a handful of points even to a home team.  The “Killer Bees” performed well on Sunday Night Football in Green Bay, and they will very likely do it again against their divisional rival on Monday.  PICK:  Steelers

BEST BETS

Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.

• MINNESOTA (+3) at ATLANTA 
• DETROIT (+3) at BALTIMORE 
• TENNESSEE (-6.5) vs. HOUSTON
• JACKSONVILLE (-9) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
• LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-13.5) vs. CLEVELAND 
• NEW ORLEANS (-4) vs. CAROLINA
• LOS ANGELES RAMS (-6.5) at ARIZONA
• PHILADELPHIA (-5.5) at SEATTLE

• DETROIT “FOR THE WIN” (+125) at BALTIMORE
• MINNESOTA “FOR THE WIN” (+130) at ATLANTA 
• NEW YORK JETS “FOR THE WIN” (+155) vs. KANSAS CITY  
• NEW YORK GIANTS“FOR THE WIN” (+330) at OAKLAND (good odds)

  ** TWO STAR GAMES **

• NEW ENGLAND (-8.5) at BUFFALO
• (Monday) PITTSBURGH (-5) at CINCINNATI

*** THREE STAR GAMES *** 

• 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (1.65-1 ODDS):

PICK(S) OF THE WEEK:  Minnesota, Detroit, New England, Tennessee, New Orleans, Los Angeles Rams, Pittsburgh 

RESULTS

Last Week

• OVERALL: 9-6-1 (60.0%)
• BEST BETS (STARS): 4.27-14 (23.4%)
• PICK OF WEEK: 4-2 (66.7%)

Season

• OVERALL: 91-78-7 (53.8%)
• BEST BETS (STARS): 170.04-181-3 (48.4%)
• PICK OF WEEK: 52-34-2 (60.5%)

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com