Photo: Kyle Terada, USA Today Sports

The 2020 fantasy season is in the books. Hopefully, it was a great one for you filled with wins and moves made to set up your team for long-term success. Before we get into #startupseason, start preparing for free agency, or put together our rookie draft boards, we have some time in the month of January to take our first in-depth look back to try to contextualize and understand what we saw in 2020. That will be the focus of this month’s article, especially the following questions:

• Which players really mattered at each position?
• How much value did we actually get from the players on our rosters?
• When everyone has had time to digest the 2020 stats, which players are going to see their dynasty values start to creep up or fall later in the offseason?

To help answer these questions, we calculated the total 2020 fantasy production for each player above and beyond replacement level production at their position (PPR scoring). There are slightly different ways to calculate this number but the details of the calculation are less important than the big picture takeaways. These season-long value numbers are an approximation of the weekly advantage you would have had with a specific player in your lineup compared to an opponent starting a replacement-level player at the same position (adjusted for the number of games played). Below, you will see every player at each position who had a value of at least 2.0 points in 2020.

The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues with a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It now also includes trade values for Superflex leagues in a separate column. The chart is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering. Each league is different, so pay close attention to the scoring and starting roster requirements specific to your league.

Quarterback

2020 actual value takeaways

1. As predicted before the season, we had a major youth movement at the position. The top three quarterbacks were each 25 or younger. We also saw greater separation between the top quarterbacks and the replacement level passers than we have in recent years. Players like Allen, Murray, and Mahomes returned as much value as mid-low end RB1s and WR1s. Considering their expected career longevity compared to other positions (especially running back), it probably means these top young passers are still a bit undervalued compared to other positions. The “late-round quarterback” mentality has become so ingrained in our redraft mindset, that it is bleeding over into dynasty more than it should. In redraft, it is understandable since the overall QB1 each of the last three years (Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes II, respectively) went off the board in the 8th-to-10th rounds going into those seasons.
2. Justin Herbert’s monster rookie season makes him one of the biggest steals of 2020 rookie drafts. The question will be how much of a jump he can make. We saw Daniel Jones (also a sixth-overall pick) regress after his rookie season. We saw Josh Allen (a seventh-overall pick) make big jumps after both his rookie and his second season. If Herbert makes gains over the next year or two, he could make a push towards the overall QB1. This will be a big offseason for the Chargers and for Herbert’s development with a new coaching staff coming in. An interesting hire would be Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, who was partially responsible for helping Allen make a big leap.
3. It was not a huge fantasy year for Baker Mayfield (QB15 in actual value) but his Superflex dynasty value still gets a solid boost. He led the downtrodden Browns franchise to the playoffs for the first time in almost 20 years, which buys him some medium-term job security.

Quarterback Dynasty Values

Running Back

2020 actual value takeaways

1. The average age of the Top 12 running backs for the 2020 season was 24.
2. Derrick Henry was the old man of the group at age 26 (he turned 27-years old yesterday).
3. We know age matters at running back more than any other position. It is a young man’s position and the top of the 2020 value list bears that out.
4. The three running backs who separated from the pack (plus another elite back we will touch on) are each going into either their fifth or sixth NFL seasons. One of the biggest questions everyone will have to consider during startups and in making trades this offseason is how much longevity to project for these guys. Do you value them as if they are right in the middle of their prime or do you assume that this is the tail end of their prime?
5. Let’s start with the elite back going into his fifth-year who was not at the top of our value list. Christian McCaffrey was the 27th most valuable running back in 2020 despite only playing three games. If he had kept up his three-game pace for the full 16-game season, he would have had a value of 20.6, lapping the field. We can’t shrug it off as simply a small sample size outlier either because this monster per game value number is right in line with what he did for a full season in 2019 and down the stretch in 2018. This is an example of why trying to put projected value numbers on players is so important. How many big years do you think McCaffrey has left? Do you project him for at least a couple more monster 15+ seasons? If so, it is easy to justify drafting him highly even if you think he does not have a whole lot of prime years left.
6. If McCaffrey is not the top dynasty back, then Jonathan Taylor is. On the strength of a strong finish, he ended up finishing as the 6th-most valuable back in 2020 (though his big Week 17 did not actually help fantasy teams). Players like Cook and Kamara are more proven and should have more receiving upside but Taylor is three years younger. That matters so much at the running back position that the advice here is to err on the side of youth.
7. Deciding just how much of a freak you think Derrick Henry is will be key to determining whether he is a buy or sell for you this offseason. If you zoom out and look at it from the 100-foot view, this is a 27-year old running back coming off of back-to-back 400+ touch seasons (playoffs included) who is still valued very highly. Just based upon that, he looks like an easy fade based upon history and what we have seen from the vast majority of running backs who have seen that level of usage. When you zoom in, Henry does seem like a freak of nature who is uniquely built to maintain this type of heavy workload for longer than a mere mortal back. Tough call here.

Running Back Dynasty Values

Wide Receiver

2020 value takeaways

1. We had a few monster wide receiver seasons in 2020, led by Davante Adams. Catching 18 touchdowns in 14 games is unlikely to be repeated but he does have 48 touchdowns in his last 71 games, which is an average of 13 touchdowns per 16 games. No pass-catcher carries as high of a touchdown expectation moving forward, which is why even having just turned 28 years old, he ranks as one of the most valuable at his position.
2. Justin Jefferson was the sixth-most valuable fantasy wide receiver as a 21-year old rookie. Having seven 100-yard games in a season is incredible for anyone, much less a rookie. Given that Jefferson is over four years younger than any of the other wide receivers in the top six (Calvin Ridley just turned 26 two weeks ago), he is likely to emerge as the consensus dynasty WR1 over the coming months.
3. DK Metcalf’s valuation becomes a bit tougher because 76% of his value was generated over the first half of the season. He was on pace for an 11+ value season, which was why he rose up to the WR1. However, over the second half of the season, his production dropped considerably with just two touchdowns and only one game over 80 receiving yards. Expect the “Seattle passing game splits” to be a topic of conversation this offseason and one of those things we all need to try to figure out in terms of projecting forward.
4. The Houston passing offense will be one worth watching this offseason. Both Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller were Top 20 in terms of their value returned in 2020. Fuller is a free agent and the rest of the depth chart is up in the air. There could be a lot of value here given how amazing Deshaun Watson looked down the stretch.
5. The Steelers pass-heavy offense produced three of the top-24 wide receivers in 2020. With the salary cap expected to be a major issue, it would not be a surprise if Pittsburgh let JuJu Smith-Schuster was allowed to leave in free agency. Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool are getting a little bit of a value boost here based on this assumption.
6. Curtis Samuel finished as the most valuable Carolina wide receiver. He is still really young and is going to be a very hot commodity in free agency given how thirsty every team is for speedy playmakers. He could be a good player to target over the next few months because a strong free agency landing spot could give him a nice value boost.

Wide Receiver Dynasty Values

Tight End

2020 actual value takeaways

1. We talked last month about the weird season at the tight end position where really only 2.5 players mattered. Travis Kelce and Darren Waller left everyone else in the dust in terms of season-long value.
2. You also had George Kittle in the conversation because he finished as the sixth-most valuable tight end in 2020 despite playing just four full games and four partial games. With a fully healthy season, it is easy to assume he is right up there with Waller and Kelce in that 8+ value range.
3. Darren Waller has been undervalued by the dynasty community and it will be interesting to see how much his value catches up to reality this offseason. He is a prime example of why these types of reviews and trying to put actual numbers on fantasy values are so important. By my calculations, Waller was the eighth-most valuable player in all of fantasy. That is in normal PPR scoring, not even tight-end-premium formats, where he was a truly elite impact fantasy performer. In normal PPR leagues, he gave us about 0.8 more points worth of value than DeAndre Hopkins, who is slightly older. Again, we do not get points for past fantasy performance but if we think both guys come close to repeating their 2020 performances, the case for Waller to be valued near or even above Hopkins in a 2021 startup is not hard to make. Instead, Waller is likely to be available a couple of rounds later than Hopkins. It is almost like when there are nearly identical products but a generic label is slapped on one and thus it comes at a fraction of the price.

Tight End Dynasty Values

2021 Rookie Pick Values

For the first time, we will start to value each pick individually since the draft orders have been determined in your leagues. There will be plenty of time for deeper dives into rookie drafts (and I included a very early rookie mock draft in last month’s article), but here are a few things you should definitely know at this point:

1. The Superflex 1.01 pick is going to be extremely valuable. Even with the record-breaking rookie season just produced by Justin Herbert, I am not sure if I would take him over Trevor Lawrence if I had the choice between the two. That is not a knock on Herbert but instead a strong endorsement of how great a prospect Lawrence is. He has it all as a passer and could be Josh Allen as a runner too if his coaching staff chooses to use him that way. This is a pick where if you try to make a trade offer for it, what may seem like an overpay today will look like buying low by the summer.
2. In normal one-quarterback leagues, we may see the value fall off a little quicker than many will assume. At this point, it looks like there are a couple of running backs (Najee Harris and Travis Etienne) who will be highly coveted in dynasty. We can assume a third (maybe Javonte Williams) emerges from the pack. There are three wide receivers who are virtually guaranteed to go very high in the NFL draft (Ja'Marr Chase, DeVonta Smith, and Jaylen Waddle). There is also a tight end (Kyle Pitts) who should go very early. That gets us through 1.07. After that, it gets a bit murkier. There may be another wide receiver or two who sneaks into the back part of the first round but this class probably is not quite as loaded with high-end talents as some are hyping it up to be.
3. In general, it is important not to value Superflex picks identically to non-Superflex picks. This is especially true in a draft where you have three dual-threat quarterback prospects (Lawrence, Justin Fields, and Zach Wilson) who are widely projected as Top 5 draft prospects. Not only does that increase the value of the early picks, it pushes some of the elite running backs and wide receivers down to the bottom of the first round. When you also take into account the fact there are two or three other quarterbacks who should go in the first or second round, it really increases the value of second-round rookie picks as well.