April is all about the NFL Draft and upcoming rookie drafts. It is also the month startup season finally starts kicking into higher gear. One of the biggest challenges at this time of year is trying to anticipate the most likely draft outcomes and how those picks will impact the value of players on your roster. Smartly managing that risk versus reward proposition is the easiest way to get a leg up on the competition this month.
In this month’s dynasty trade value, we will go deeper on:
1. The lay of the land as we head into rookie drafts
2. Pro day standouts
3. How to value Deshaun Watson
4. Quarterbacks entering make or break seasons
5. Free agency winners and losers
6. Players most likely to be impacted by drafted competition
The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It now also includes trade values for Superflex leagues in a separate column. The chart is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering. Each league is different, so pay close attention to the scoring and starting roster requirements specific to your league.
2021 Rookie Pick Values
| Pick | One QB | Superflex |
| 1.01 | 30 | 45 |
| 1.02 | 28 | 32 |
| 1.03 | 26 | 30 |
| 1.04 | 24 | 28 |
| 1.05 | 21 | 26 |
| 1.06 | 18 | 25 |
| 1.07 | 16 | 24 |
| 1.08 | 14 | 21 |
| 1.09 | 12 | 18 |
| 1.10 | 11 | 17 |
| 1.11 | 10 | 16 |
| 1.12 | 10 | 15 |
| 2.01 | 9 | 14 |
| 2.02 | 9 | 12 |
| 2.03 | 8 | 11 |
| 2.04 | 8 | 10 |
| 2.05 | 7 | 10 |
| 2.06 | 7 | 9 |
| 2.07 | 7 | 9 |
| 2.08 | 6 | 8 |
| 2.09 | 6 | 8 |
| 2.10 | 6 | 7 |
| 2.11 | 5 | 7 |
| 2.12 | 5 | 7 |
Lay of the Land heading into the draft
The top end of this rookie class is as talented as any in recent memory, especially in Superflex leagues. If your dynasty roster needs a young quarterback, this is the year to make landing one a priority. Future drafts will not have elite options like the 2021 draft does.
There are five quarterbacks likely to go in the Top 10 overall. At least three of them have significant rushing upside (Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, and Trey Lance). Each of these top guys has done nothing but check off boxes throughout the pre-draft process. There is a good chance that at this time next year, three or more rookie quarterbacks from this class will be going in the first couple rounds of Superflex startups. Davis Mills and Kellen Mond are also generating some buzz as Day 2 options and we saw how taking a chance on guys like that in rookie drafts can pay off last year (Jalen Hurts).
We should see at least three running backs in the first two rounds. Each of them are above-average pass catchers too. As with the rushing quarterbacks, the potential three-down back skill set of the top guys adds to the dynasty upside. Expect each of the top three to instantly rank as Top 20 dynasty backs.
This is another deep wide receiver class, especially for teams looking to add speed. And these days, that describes just about every franchise in the NFL. Ja'Marr Chase could quickly challenge his former teammate, Justin Jefferson, for overall dynasty WR1 status.
Kyle Pitts is the obvious headliner and may be the highest-drafted tight end in rookie drafts in recent history. Pitts gets all of the attention, but do not forget about Pat Freiermuth. He should be a Top 50 pick and could quickly become a Top 15 dynasty player at the position.
Pro Day Standouts
Justin Fields blazed a 4.4-second 40-yard dash, showing just how massive his fantasy upside is if he puts it all together. Matt Waldman made a Josh Allen comparison for Fields, which seems apt. He has all of the physical tools but is not a finished product. Allen made big leaps after hitting the NFL and we need to see if Fields can do the same.
Justin Fields put on a show at his pro day, giving the 49ers a glimpse of what their future could be (via @Schrock_And_Awe)https://t.co/VR3Q9sSR0T pic.twitter.com/nI4YXPCSrd
— 49ers on NBCS (@NBCS49ers) March 30, 2021
- Ja’Marr Chase was absurdly productive as a 19-year old in the SEC. He also put together some of the most impressive all-around workout numbers we’ve seen from a wide receiver since Julio Jones.
Pending official numbers from @LSUfootball pro day...
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) March 31, 2021
Ja'Marr Chase (4.38 40-time) is the only wide receiver in the Next Gen Stats model dataset — since the 2003 NFL Draft — with a production and athleticism score over 95.
🔹 Production: 98
🔹 Athleticism: 96*
🔹 Overall: 99 pic.twitter.com/SFyYtCnYJk
- Kyle Pitts looks like a freak on the field. It is always nice when testing numbers can confirm what we are seeing with our eyes. That was certainly the case at Florida’s pro day.
Kyle Pitts put his elite athleticism on display at his Pro Day. 📊@kylepitts__ | @GatorsFB pic.twitter.com/TPI8aiu6Of
— NFL (@NFL) April 1, 2021
- Travis Etienne is explosive. We knew that before he ran a 4.40-second forty-yard dash at Clemson’s pro day. Sometimes it feels like Etienne has been on the dynasty radar so long that we take him for granted. Don’t forget this is a big-time prospect who could easily be going in the first round of dynasty startups next offseason.
RB Travis Etienne with a blazing 4.40u 40-yard dash 🔥 (via @accnetwork)@swaggy_t1 | @ClemsonFB pic.twitter.com/JzGQLoSsuZ
— NFL (@NFL) March 11, 2021
- The two rookies who seem to be flying under the radar way more than they should be are Elijah Moore and Kadarius Toney. These guys were both extremely productive in the SEC last season and are freaky athletes. Elijah Moore ran a 4.35-second forty-yard dash at Mississippi’s pro day. He is almost as athletic as the more-hyped Rondale Moore but he is bigger and does not carry as many injury concerns. Toney ran a 4.39-second forty-yard dash and is arguable the most elusive player in the entire draft. If he lands in an offense where he is used creatively, his upside is through the roof.
Official pro-day results for @OleMissFB WR Elijah Moore. 🎤drop after first 40 run. One scout just texted, "he's putting on a show".🔥
— Jim Nagy (@JimNagy_SB) March 25, 2021
HT: 5094
WT: 178
Hand: 9 3/8
Arm: 30 1/8
Wing: 71 3/4
40-yd: 4.35 (NFL scout â±ï¸) 👀
VJ: 36.0
BJ: 10-0👀
SS: 4.00
3C: 6.66
BP: 17x
Quarterback
| Pos Rank | Player | Superflex2 | One QB2 |
| 1 | Patrick Mahomes II | 60 | 30 |
| 2 | Josh Allen | 52 | 25 |
| 3 | Kyler Murray | 50 | 24 |
| 4 | Justin Herbert | 48 | 21 |
| 5 | Lamar Jackson | 45 | 20 |
| 6 | Dak Prescott | 42 | 17 |
| 7 | Joe Burrow | 40 | 15 |
| 8 | Russell Wilson | 33 | 12 |
| 9 | Deshaun Watson | 28 | 11 |
| 10 | Matthew Stafford | 27 | 10 |
| 11 | Jalen Hurts | 26 | 10 |
| 12 | Aaron Rodgers | 26 | 10 |
| 13 | Ryan Tannehill | 25 | 7 |
| 14 | Baker Mayfield | 23 | 5 |
| 15 | Tua Tagovailoa | 23 | 5 |
| 16 | Kirk Cousins | 21 | 5 |
| 17 | Carson Wentz | 18 | 4 |
| 18 | Tom Brady | 14 | 5 |
| 19 | Derek Carr | 13 | 3 |
| 20 | Daniel Jones | 13 | 3 |
| 21 | Matt Ryan | 12 | 3 |
| 22 | Jameis Winston | 12 | 2 |
| 23 | Jared Goff | 11 | 1 |
| 24 | Jimmy Garoppolo | 10 | 1 |
| 25 | Sam Darnold | 9 | 1 |
| 26 | Cam Newton | 8 | 1 |
| 27 | Ben Roethlisberger | 8 | 1 |
| 28 | Drew Lock | 7 | 1 |
| 29 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 7 | 1 |
| 30 | Andy Dalton | 7 | 0 |
| 31 | Taysom Hill | 6 | 1 |
| 32 | Jordan Love | 6 | 0 |
| 33 | Teddy Bridgewater | 5 | 0 |
| 34 | Gardner Minshew | 4 | 0 |
| 35 | Mitchell Trubisky | 3 | 0 |
| 36 | Dwayne Haskins | 3 | 0 |
| 37 | Marcus Mariota | 3 | 0 |
What to do with Watson?
Drew Davenport went in-depth on the legal issues facing Deshaun Watson and we will not dive deep into that aspect of things here. The short version is that Watson is probably facing a suspension of some kind but this is unlikely to be career-threatening unless more comes to light. Unlikely does not mean that chances are zero, however. Undoubtedly, the mounting off-field issues have added loads of uncertainty to Watson’s dynasty prospects moving forward.
If you have Watson, the time to get 90 cents on the dollar in a trade has passed. The question is how much of a discount you should be willing to give if you want to move him. The advice here is to be willing to take about 65 cents on the dollar but do not sell too much lower than that. Translating that to dynasty trade value chart terms, he is no longer worth 46 (like he was in the March update). Pricing in an uncertainty discount now puts his value at 28.
You would have to have your head in the sand to prefer Watson over any of the other top young quarterbacks who were already in the same tier (Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott, and Joe Burrow) given the current uncertainty about his availability. It is worth adding an asset of solid value if you are able to upgrade from Watson to one of those guys because then you don’t have to deal with the uncertainty of this moving forward. The tougher question is exactly where to draw the line in moving Watson for another player who also faces a different type of uncertainty. For example, Watson versus the Superflex 1.02. Unlike Watson, we simply don’t know if Justin Fields or Trey Lance will be elite fantasy guys in the NFL. Personally, I would take that “might not be good” uncertainty over “might be out of the league for a while” uncertainty at this point, though it is not an easy call and a move that could easily backfire.
Having a discount in mind you would be willing to take if you are looking to trade away Watson (or at which you would potentially buy) is also important in terms of making sure you do not overreact and sell for pennies on the dollar. In a somewhat similar scenario not too long ago, people were trading Tyreek Hill for 2nd or even 3rd-round rookie picks and ended up regretting it.
Jameis Winston 2019 Zone
Around this time two years ago, we wrote about how Jameis Winston was a huge boom or bust pick. At the time, it was noted it would not be a surprise to see him take a step forward and thrive as a fantasy QB1 for the next decade but it also would not be a surprise if the Buccaneers decided he was not the answer for them moving forward due to his 47 turnovers in his previous 24 games. He ended up having a big fantasy season but lost his starting job due to the turnovers and saw his dynasty trade value crater.
As we enter 2021, there are a large number of young quarterbacks who are in very similar situations to that of Winston in 2019. These guys have clear long-term upside but also face a real possibility they do not last as starters for more than a year or two.
When we look back in a year, some of these guys will have been steals at their current values while some others will see their value fall off a cliff. You should be spending time trying to figure out which of these guys you believe in (if any) and which you don’t, because this is where we are likely to see some huge dynasty trade value swings one way or the other over the next nine months.
- Jalen Hurts Trading out of #6 overall is a strong indication that Philadelphia is going to rely on Hurts as the starter for 2021. This is his audition for the role of long-term franchise quarterback. If he succeeds, he can be an elite fantasy producer along the lines of Lamar Jackson. If he fails, Philadelphia has stocked up on draft capital (should have three first-rounders) to chase a top 2022 quarterback prospect.
- Tua Tagovailoa We cannot completely rule out the Dolphins drafting a Quarterback at #6 but it seems unlikely they would have risked missing out on their guy by trading down from #3. This instead feels like a move to surround Tagovailoa with talent and give him a real shot to take a step forward in 2021.
- Daniel Jones It is now or never time for Jones in year three. With the addition of Kenny Golladay and return of Saquon Barkley, Jones has an enviable set of weapons in the passing game. He has to improve his accuracy and cut down on the turnovers. His situation is especially analogous to Winston’s in 2019 given his real combination of fantasy upside and relatively tenuous hold on the starting job longer-term.
- Carson Wentz Wentz’s contract is basically a two-year deal with team options beyond that. It may not be a true make-or-break season but he has two years at most to establish himself as the franchise guy for the Colts.
- Jared Goff Unlike the guys above him on this list, Goff may not even have the 2021 season to prove his worth. Detroit is well-positioned to grab one of the draft’s Top 5 quarterbacks if that is the direction they choose to go. If the Lions pass on a quarterback, Goff would still only have a small window to establish himself as the franchise guy moving forward.
Running Back
News and Notes
- The biggest loser at the position in free agency was A.J. Dillon, who had the potential to jump way up the rankings if Aaron Jones had left via free agency. Instead, Dillon is likely stuck as the 1B behind Jones for the next two seasons. He could have flex appeal in that role and has massive upside in the case of an injury. However, barring injury, we are looking at 2023 before Dillon would have a chance to be an impact fantasy performer. Dillon is a decent buy-low candidate if you are willing to wait out the next couple of years.
- Aaron Jones is a free agency winner. He stays in a fantasy-friendly offense and is locked into a lead role for the next two seasons. There is some risk to overrating Jones, however. This looks like a two-year window and he should be valued accordingly. After the 2022 season, Jones will be 28-years old and due $16M for 2023 should the Packers decide to keep him. That seems unlikely. If you can cheaply upgrade from Jones to one of the top 2020 rookie backs, it is an option worth strongly considering.
- Chase Edmonds is the type of boom-of-bust dynasty value that makes this time of year so interesting. It is easy to imagine the Cardinals drafting one of the top backs in the 2021 draft. If so, Edmonds would be set to repeat his 2020 role, in which he racked up 850 yards and 53 receptions as the backup. It is also easy to envision a scenario where the Cardinals wait until the middle rounds to draft a backup running back. In this case, Edmonds would be in a prime position for RB2 fantasy production in 2021 and a relatively hot dynasty commodity. Balancing the risk (draft replacement) versus the reward (Edmonds starring in 2021 as the lead back) is key in these situations.
- The running back situation in Tampa Bay looks messy. Leonard Fournette signed a one-year, $3.25M deal to return, reportedly turning down bigger money to remain with the Buccaneers. After starring in the playoffs, Fournette deserves top billing for now. Ronald Jones II is in the final year of his rookie deal and should maintain a consistent role. Plus, Bruce Arians has talked about Ke’Shawn Vaughn having a “breakout year.” Each of these guys has dynasty value but they are capping each other’s upside currently.
Wide Receiver
Quiet Free Agency Period
The dynasty landscape at wide receiver changed very little due to free agency. Most of the top wide receivers were franchised or stuck with their current teams. Let’s look at the biggest moves:
- Kenny Golladay was the only free-agent wide receiver to get a monster free-agent deal (four years, $72M). The size of the contract means the Giants will give Golladay every possible opportunity to be the top target for Daniel Jones. Your excitement level on Golladay should be directly correlated to how optimistic you are about Daniel Jones.
- Curtis Samuel is another free agency winner. He had a hotter market in free agency than bigger-named players like JuJu Smith-Schuster. He inked a three-year, $34.5M contract with Washington. He will be the 1B alongside his former Ohio State teammate, Terry McLaurin. With Ryan Fitzpatrick slinging it, we could see Samuel have a big year. Amazingly, he is still only 24-years old. He is a prime breakout candidate and remains a good trade target, even as his price continues to creep up.
- Will Fuller took a one-year deal with the Dolphins worth up to $13.6M if he hits incentives. This is very much a prove-it contract for Fuller, who has yet to put together a full NFL season. He is a tough player to value as of today. He is the top target for Tua Tagovailoa for now. That could change if Miami takes a pass-catcher sixth overall in the NFL Draft. In addition to difficulty figuring out what Fuller’s slice of the pie will look like, we are only guessing as to how big a pie we are going to get in Miami. Tua Tagovailoa looked to be more of a game manager as a rookie. However, we have seen a number of quarterbacks make big leaps in their second seasons.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster stayed in Pittsburgh, which is probably the best thing that could have happened for him. Sure, Ben Roethlisberger is past his prime, but this should be a better passing offense than Baltimore’s (the runner-up in this free agency). While the landing spot was positive for Smith-Schuster, it does nothing to help Diontae Johnson or Chase Claypool. Will Pittsburgh’s offense be good enough to support three fantasy-relevant wide receivers?
- Corey Davis should be Zach Wilson’s top target with the Jets. As with many of the other free agency movers, your level of optimism with Davis has to be tied to how optimistic you are about his quarterback situation.
Tight End
| Pos Rank | Player | Value |
| 1 | George Kittle | 30 |
| 2 | Travis Kelce | 26 |
| 3 | Darren Waller | 24 |
| 4 | Mark Andrews | 19 |
| 5 | T.J. Hockenson | 15 |
| 6 | Noah Fant | 15 |
| 7 | Dallas Goedert | 10 |
| 8 | Mike Gesicki | 9 |
| 9 | Jonnu Smith | 8 |
| 10 | Hunter Henry | 7 |
| 11 | Evan Engram | 7 |
| 12 | Cole Kmet | 6 |
| 13 | Robert Tonyan Jr | 6 |
| 14 | Irv Smith | 6 |
| 15 | Austin Hooper | 5 |
| 16 | Logan Thomas | 5 |
| 17 | Zach Ertz | 5 |
| 18 | Adam Trautman | 5 |
| 19 | Hayden Hurst | 4 |
| 20 | Harrison Bryant | 3 |
| 21 | Blake Jarwin | 3 |
| 22 | Tyler Higbee | 3 |
| 23 | Rob Gronkowski | 3 |
| 24 | Anthony Firkser | 3 |
| 25 | Eric Ebron | 2 |
| 26 | Chris Herndon | 2 |
| 27 | O.J. Howard | 2 |
| 28 | David Njoku | 2 |
| 29 | Dawson Knox | 2 |
| 30 | Gerald Everett | 2 |
| 31 | Jared Cook | 2 |
| 32 | Donald Parham | 2 |
News and Notes
- Jonnu Smith looked to be the big winner at the position in free agency. However, a couple of days later the Patriots also added Hunter Henry. For Smith, this looks like a slight upgrade compared to his situation in Tennessee, where he was clearly behind A.J. Brown and others in a run-heavy offense. He gets a very slight upgrade in trade value because he has a good shot of emerging as the top overall target in the New England offense. On the other hand, this is a hit to the value of Henry. He goes from having Justin Herbert as his quarterback to a situation with massive uncertainty at the position.
- Anthony Firkser is a quiet free agency winner and a player who I have been stashing on as many dynasty rosters as possible. He is an undersized tight end who mostly lines up in the slot. He had career-highs in receptions (39) and receiving yards (389) last season. The departures of Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith should push him up the pecking order in the Tennessee passing offense.
- Adam Trautman is also better positioned for a potential second-year breakout. Veteran pass-catchers Emmanuel Sanders and Jared Cook both moved on from the Saints. We should see some competition for targets arrive via the draft but Trautman projects better today than he did a month ago.
