These two Buccaneers receivers are often found back-to-back in people's rankings. In our PPR rankings, Godwin is WR6 and Evans is WR7. In non-PPR, Godwin sticks at WR6 while Evans moves up to WR5.
Which wide receiver do you prefer this season? How much does the scoring system matter? Are they both worthy of these high rankings? With Tom Brady's arrival, how sure are we of each receiver's role? Is one more of a sure thing?
Jason Wood
It's scary thinking about two receivers projected in the Top 8 playing for the same team, with a brand new quarterback, in a pandemic era where they've been unable to build chemistry. However, the excitement is palpable because Mike Evans has proven time and again he's able to be a fantasy WR1 regardless of who throws the ball, and Godwin delivered a classic "third-year breakout" last season. I think trying to definitely say one is better than the other is problematic.
Evans is more experienced and has been the better player, to date. But Godwin is only 23 years old and seemed to overtake Evans last year in some scouts' eyes.
Since Godwin joined the Buccaneers in 2017, he's averaged 3.9 receptions for 58.7 yards and 0.4 touchdowns. Evans, over the same span, has averaged 5.1 receptions for 83.7 yards and 0.5 touchdowns. Evans' catch rate (55%) is markedly lower than Godwin's (66%), although that's as much about the routes they're asked to run as it is their respective abilities.
Godwin's career average depth of target is just 11.4 versus Evans at 14.8. Many believe Godwin's role is surer under Brady, as the former Patriot generally thrives by throwing underneath routes. While that's been true, Brady has been highly effective when throwing deep -- he just hasn't had the deep threats on the roster.
I don't think you can go wrong with either, but history tells us one of them (or both) is probably going to fall short of their lofty ADPs. Godwin seems to be the hotter name in drafts, so I'll probably defer to Evans particularly if their respective ADPs widen further.
Jeff Haseley
I fully echo what Jason says, but I'll add some additional dialogue. Based on Chris Godwin's tendency and strength of playing in the slot I lean Godwin as a more productive fantasy wide receiver than his teammate, Mike Evans. One, Tom Brady loves to utilize his slot receiver, and two, Brady arguably has better accuracy and propensity to throw over the middle of the field, rather than attempt difficult throws to the sideline, where Evans has made a career. If Evans falls far enough past his ADP, he becomes a value. I'd rather spend a fourth-round pick on Evans than a second-round pick on Godwin. It's difficult to ignore six consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, especially when you include the greatest quarterback in NFL history, or at least this era, into the equation.
Jeff Bryant
Can I just say two words here?
Tom Freaking Brady. Okay, three words.
I love both Evans and Godwin. And I love Gronkowski. And I love Bruce Arians.
It's why I think Brady can be a top-six quarterback this year.
And sorry for not really answering the question.
Chad Parsons
Chris Godwin had a high-level 2019 season, but Mike Evans has been a historically rare producer throughout his entire career. Evans has been a top-10 receiver in adjusted points-per-game (proprietary with tiered adjustment based on games played) in three of the past four seasons despite lagging team results and a bevy of interceptions to end drives. The counter to the 'Tom Brady will center on slot receivers because that's what he did in New England' argument, I will ask outside of Randy Moss, who did Brady really have as a legitimate option as a perimeter receiver? Godwin had a regression-worthy level efficiency last season and I expect that to subside. Give me Evans with the best quarterback of his career to hit or exceed expectations in 2020.
Matt Waldman
In a near-even scenario such as this one, I will take the player who is the best fit for the scheme’s most reliable role as well as the player with the broadest array of talents. That player in this case is Godwin.
Evans is essentially a more skilled DK Metcalf—huge, fast, and can win the contested target. Evans is a better route runner than Metcalf at this point, but he’s not a receiver who excels at the entire route tree, and he has some deficiencies-inconsistencies against physical press corners. He also gets out-positioned on fades more often than fans realize.
Godwin excels at the entire route tree and while not as big and strong as Evans, he’s a strong athlete with speed and quickness. He was one of Jameis Winston’s favorite and most productive red-zone options last year, making good on reports from training camp about his prowess on contested plays—especially in the end zone.
Godwin also excels at playing all three receiver positions, so there are greater opportunities for mismatches in his favor. Tampa is running Tom Brady’s offense, which will be base 12 personnel (2 tight ends, 1 back) that morphs pre-snap into three- and four-receiver sets based on the defense. The player who will earn the greatest volume of targets and easy red zone looks will be the receiver who plays the Edelman-Welker role—and that will be Godwin. And because Godwin offers a vertical component that Brady’s slot men never had, expect great upside with downfield targets.
Godwin is also the more experienced receiver with coverage adjustments that come with slot work but Brady expects more often from all receivers. So if there are players more likely to struggle with the conceptual adjustments, it will be Mike Evans and O.J. Howard.
Evans should have a great year but his risk of a lower floor is highest among Godwin and Rob Gronkowski because these two deliver some redundancy to what Evans does and they offer greater versatility. While Brady’s arm is still good enough to go deep with success, I doubt that Evans’ upside will approach Randy Moss territory.
Jordan McNamara
Mike Evans has been a top 24 wide receiver ever season of his six-year career an extraordinary accomplishment. Chris Godwin had a good season in 2019 but is a major regression candidate after finishing with 2.3 points per target in PPR scoring, as the average number is around 1.65 and the number is not predictive year over year. This is a clear value trap on Godwin and makes Evans the better bet in 2020.
Andy Hicks
The biggest concern I have here is that Tom Brady is likely to target one guy more than the other and I cannot predict which one that will be with any authority. Maybe he gives both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin equal looks and everyone is happy, but I expect one to finish as a WR1 and the other will end up as a WR2. Mike Evans has six consecutive 1000 yard seasons and averages eight touchdowns a year. I, therefore, think he has the highest floor. Chris Godwin on the other hand finished 2019 higher in fantasy rankings than Mike Evans has in any year of his career. Godwin wins the upside argument. If both of these players are in front of me I will look at upside for my early picks.
Both are reliable touchdown, reception and yardage players and the scoring system doesn’t matter significantly. Both players shouldn’t cost you as I foresee WR2 at worst. In the end, this decision is likely to be made for you by other drafters having a clear preference. Both will be taken within a few picks of each other.
Ryan Hester
Evans has the edge in accomplishments and year-over-year consistency, but Godwin has the edge in scheme and alignment of skill with Brady. Due to what each receive brings to the table, Evans' production is likely to be more inconsistent (high peaks but low valleys), while Godwin's should stay in a more predictable range.
Ultimately, I see both finishing in the WR10-15 range. That's slightly disappointing considering their current prices, but both have solid outlooks -- especially later in the season as the chemistry with Brady builds.
Bob Henry
These two are definitely tough to rank when it comes down to picking one over the other, although I do agree that in PPR leagues I favor Godwin, and in non-PPR, I lean towards Evans.
The other nuance to these two is where they are being valued and drafted. In my initial projections and rankings, these two were the next on the board after the top four (Michael Thomas, Davante Adams, Julio Jones, and Tyreek Hill). This is where it gets interesting because I initially had Hopkins a little lower on concerns that he won't see nearly the same target volume as he did in Houston and he'll have to adapt and learn and develop chemistry with Kyler Murray. That pushed him down into the same tier as these two Buccaneers and - for me - Kenny Golliday.
In more recent drafts, I have opted for Golliday over these two, but I won't shy away from taking Evans or Godwin in the later-half of the second round. In my experience, I've seen Godwin go off the board much earlier than I would take him leading to Evans being a better value as he will often linger to the end of round two and he's awfully intriguing with a high floor/ceiling at that turn to pair with McCaffrey (except they share the week 13 bye).
As for Tom Brady, I'm less concerned with either player's risk profile from a talent, continuity, or perception that Brady won't support their viability as much as Jameis Winston did. The main concern with both is mainly the target volume and target share. For Evans, I think that the risk of target volume is offset by an increase in target quality and accuracy. Despite a bout with inconsistent hands early in his career, Evans came into the NFL with outstanding hands. Winston propped up Evans' value by virtue of his mistakes creating more pass-friendly scripts and garbage time later in games, but he also threw a ton of uncatchable and inaccurate passes Evans' way. It is unlikely that Brady will have the volume, but even at his age, he throws a better ball and Evans is the best downfield threat he's had since Randy Moss. I have zero qualms with Evans and Brady and not too many related to volume either.
For Godwin, as Matt said above, he is so talented and versatile that he could be like Julian Edelman on steroids. Edelman is more sudden in his route running but Godwin is a physical specimen and I just can't see Brady struggling to gain rhythm, confidence, or rapport with him.
Chris Allen
I prefer Evans, but don't have much conviction on the call. It's hard to counter the 'he doesn't fit with Tom Brady' argument given Evans' usage and personnel on the team. Mike Evans' slot rate from 2016 to 2019: 42.3%, 39.7%, 25.3%, and 24.6%. Over that same time span, his aDOT has ticked up from 14.6 to 15.3. Brady's aDOT has hovered around 8.1 the past four years without much fluctuation. The only outlier was in 2017 (9.1 aDOT) when Julian Edelman was out and Brandin Cooks and Chris Hogan led the New England receiving group. I have some hope for Evans, but it's hard to get past his competition for targets.
I believe that targets are earned. We've seen Brady use players like Cooks to our benefit it's not out of the realm of possibility that continues in Tampa Bay. I'll admit Evans is not as skilled as a route runner, but his skills can be leveraged to suit how Brady (and Arians) want to run the offense. Chris Godwin likely has the highest floor between the two, but I'm pulling for Evans to have another 1,000-yard season.
Ari Ingel
We have seen how much Tom Brady loved to throw it underneath to Edelman and should expect the same with Godwin. He’s a perfect fit for how Brady has played the last few years, as opposed to pushing it deeper down the field to a player like Mike Evans.
The talent of the receiver is not the issue here, it’s how Brady uses them.
Andrew Davenport
There's a reason that so many people have the two ranked next to each other. We simply have no clear signs or indicators about how the Tampa Bay offense is going to look. I think I've probably stared at my PPR wide receiver rankings from the 6 to 9 spots more than any other position in my rankings. I settled on Godwin as the favorite, but I lack conviction in that opinion just like Chris. The guys have pretty much nailed the angles on the players involved - both receivers and Tom Brady - so I'm not going to add anything there, but I have a few thoughts.
It is extremely hard to know what the target distribution is going to be like before the season starts. So I rely on a couple of things. Brady has steadily declined in recent years in his deep ball accuracy, and according to Pro Football Reference, he struggled in general with an On Target percentage that was just 22nd in the league in 2019. I think this points to him being more proficient in the short passing game. I definitely agree with Chad and Jordan that Godwin is in for some regression, but I also believe that he's developing into a truly special player and his regression may regress to a higher mean than most. Most of this points to Brady using Godwin to lean on over Evans.
When it comes to who to target, I think it is very likely both guys are overrated for fantasy football this year. If I had to choose I'd much rather have Evans in the third than Godwin at the end of the second, but ultimately I've been passing on Evans when he's been there in the third. I'm just worried about a 65/1050/5 from Evans incoming when Brady leads the Bucs to 10 wins with efficiency and an improved defense. I can't say I love either guy at their ADP but would side with Godwin as the one to get more targets while Evans looks like the value play in drafts. Despite all of that, I can't see myself rostering either guy very often this year.
Phil Alexander
I haven't been landing either of these guys in drafts. Part of it is my preference for running backs in Round 2, but I also have both Evans and Godwin pegged to fall short of their current ADPs.
Evans' cumulative stat line looked fine last year, but check out the weekly production graph on his player page. He was a roller coaster for fantasy purposes. Why wouldn't his week-to-week inconsistency continue with the switch to Brady, fewer pass-heavy game scripts, and added target competition from Gronkowski?
Matt mentioned the Buccaneers will shift to 12 personnel as their base offense this season, which I don't see as good news for Godwin. He'll be kicked out of the slot in favor of a tight end more often than last year. During his breakout 2019 season, 63% of Godwin's yardage came on slot routes. He's plenty versatile enough to win on the perimeter, but running fewer high-percentage routes will cap his counting stats. Unfortunately, last year was the season to profit on Godwin at ADP.
Sigmund Bloom
I think the rankings have it correct that Godwin is the choice in PPR and Evans is the choice in non-PPR, but both are overvalued. Their stats were boosted by a volume/game script spike from the Jameis Winston Adventure in a Bruce Arians offense last year. Tom Brady won't be as careless with the ball, which ignited shootouts and created garbage time. The team also added Rob Gronkowski and will surely run more two-tight-end sets this year, which might push Godwin to the outside more often instead of being in the coveted Arians slot receiver role. The defense should be better with all of the big names brought back up front and overall this team should be more balanced and have lower scoring games, which makes both Tampa wideouts unattractive targets at ADP because of unprecedented depth and value at their position.
