Who is your top tight end on a different team in 2020? Are you targeting this player in a normal redraft league? Do you think they might be underrated by most of the fantasy community?
Chad Parsons
Austin Hooper, Rob Gronkowski, and Eric Ebron also notably changed teams, but Hayden Hurst is my best bet for 2020. Thinking back to Hurst and Mark Andrews drafted by Baltimore within the same class, it was an early Hurst injury which at least aided Andrews' rising in opportunity and being the TE1 there for their time together. With Austin Hooper gone from Atlanta, the Falcons traded for Hurst, who can replicate a good percentage, if not fully, Hooper's production within an offense centered on Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and now Todd Gurley. Hurst is one of my favorite upside bets to be a top-10 tight end but without paying a top-10 investment.
Jason Wood
I like Hurst well enough, but he's not in my Top 15, currently. I don't think we can simply take Hooper's role and plug Hurst into the same stats; the league rarely works that way. While I know a lot of us think Hurst has star potential, the Ravens are an incredibly smart team and made Hurst expendable while keeping Mark Andrews (the obvious star of the group) and Nick Boyle.
I won't argue Hurst could be a very late-round draft pick who ends up a fantasy starter, I just don't like him as much as Hooper in Cleveland or Rob Gronkowski in Tampa Bay. Gronkowski didn't un-retire as a publicity stunt. And he's healthier than he's been in years thanks to taking a long break and rebuilding his body. Even assuming 12 games played, I think Gronkowski scores 5-6 touchdowns easily and chips in 45+ receptions. That's more than enough to finish as a top-12 fantasy tight end. But more importantly, those are his baseline numbers and could easily finish in the Top 5 if he plays 14-16 games and resumes his usual target share we've come to expect when Brady is throwing to him.
Jeff Pasquino
You have to give this one, far and away, to Gronkowski. The reunion with Tom Brady and the rapport between these two should set the fantasy floor relatively high for Gronkowski, with at least 500 yards and a half-dozen scores at a minimum. That said, it will be hard to target him in drafts as I think he will be overdrafted if only for the reasons above. He may not offer value where you have to pick him up.
The value play that I like right now is Chad's selection, Hayden Hurst. Atlanta's offense was successful with their incorporation of Austin Hooper, who stepped up for over 70 catches and 700 yards along with five scores on average the past two seasons. As Jason states, you cannot just plug Hurst in for Hooper and expect the same results, but Hurst fits the same mold. Hurst is a former first-round pick for Baltimore - a team known for drafting tight ends well - and then making moves to give players opportunity elsewhere if they are really blocked on the depth chart. Darren Waller of the Raiders is one clear example. Hurst was plagued by injuries as a rookie and was never able to push for enough playing time, but Baltimore traded Hurst to Atlanta plus a fourth for a second and fifth-round selection, which points to both sides attributing solid value to Hurst. I would have no issue at all grabbing him late for a committee or even as my TE2 on my roster this fall.
Ryan Hester
Hooper is the one who will score the most points, but he's not the best fantasy football value among tight ends on new teams this season. In fact, he and Gronkowski are in the "no man's land" of typical tight end draft positions.
At positions like tight end and quarterback where only one player is needed to fill a starting lineup in traditional leagues, the typically sound practice is to either take one of the expected elite options or to scrape the bottom of the barrel and mine for upside. Worst case, the value picks don't work out, and the waiver wire can help to provide a replacement-level option.
Considering that, Ebron is the best cheap-to-free value play among tight ends on new teams. Assuming Ben Roethlisberger returns to health, Ebron has eight-or-more touchdown upside, something that can't be said for the other tight ends near his current price tag. Pittsburgh's receiving corps is young and unproven (even JuJu Smith-Schuster has some doubters in his ability to be a true WR1), but the passing game is due for a resurgence if Roethlisberger is at the helm all year long. Vance McDonald is still on the roster, and if he stays notably ahead of Ebron as the season nears, this take can be safely ignored. But if not, Ebron offers lottery ticket" upside.
Jordan McNamara
There are plenty of good options for this category, in Hayden Hurst, Rob Gronkowski, and Austin Hooper but I will agree with Ryan and pick Eric Ebron. With a healthy Ben Roethlisberger in 2018, Pittsburgh led the league in passing attempts with 689, 45 more attempts than the Indianapolis Colts who finished second. If Roethlisberger is healthy, Pittsburgh should see a substantial increase in the 510 passing attempts in 2019. The passing game is far from established. There are questions about whether JuJu Smith-Schuster is a WR1. Day 2 NFL Draft picks Dionte Johnson and James Washington showed promise at the end of last year but are far from established, while Chase Claypool is a rookie. Given their status as day 2 NFL Draft picks, they are far from certain bets. If Smith-Schuster, Johnson, or Washington fail to take a step forward, Ebron will have the opportunity for 100 targets and the opportunity for a top 10 seasonal finish at a cost in the later teens.
Jeff Haseley
Jason, excellent points about Hayden Hurst, particularly Baltimore's decision to trade a player of value at a position of strength. Were the Ravens unloading a player whom they believe won't reach lofty first-round expectations? I wouldn't put it past them. Having said that, very few first-round tight end selections in the 2000's falter in the league, and Atlanta is an above-average team for tight end production. I like Hurst this season for those reasons alone. He is far and away their best option at tight end and he should see plenty of volume in Matt Ryan's offense.
As for Rob Gronkowski, I'm not convinced that he will be the same dominant player that he was in the previous decade. He may have some big games here and there, but can he be a consistent threat? That's still up for debate. When the league debuts on September 10th, it will be 585 days since his last game, a Super Bowl 53 win against the Rams. Keep in mind, Gronkowski had 47 receptions for 682 yards and 3 touchdowns in 13 games in 2018, his last season in the league. He finished TE11 that year. Tom Brady is entering the 2020 season as a 43-year-old. In order for Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Gronkowski to have seasons in the top 10, Brady will have to make it all happen by putting forth an effort that he hasn't accomplished in either of the last two seasons. Brady finished as the #12 fantasy quarterback (FanDuel rankings) in 2019 and had his lowest touchdown-pass season since 2006. Contrary to some beliefs, he can't play forever and it all may be revealed in 2020, which includes Gronkowski's realization that he can longer play at the same elite level.
Devin Knotts
I think there is potential that Hayden Hurst simply is not that good. He was on the field more than Mark Andrews last year, and the Ravens elected to move on from him when they averaged 1.74 tight ends on the field per game. The Ravens have Super Bowl aspirations, so if they felt Hurst could be a significant contributor it would make sense to keep him.
Most of the other names I agree with, but let me throw one dark sleeper in here. Trey Burton for the Colts is pairing with Philip Rivers who throughout his career has relied upon the tight end position should have upside in this offense much as he did in Philadelphia. Burton dealt poor quarterback play in Chicago along with injuries that kept him from producing at a high level and is better as a mismatch H-Back type role rather than having to rely on being the top tight end in an offense. If he can stay healthy, he's a late-round guy that could be a top red-zone threat for the Colts this year.
Jeff Haseley
Good call on Trey Burton. His experience with Frank Reich in Philadelphia will make his transition to Indianapolis easier, plus the Colts love to use two tight end sets in their offense. Jack Doyle should still be the primary tight end receiver but there is a non-zero chance that Burton could earn more playing time and perhaps usurp Doyle.
Bob Henry
Hayden Hurst is my choice based purely on current projections and that's considering Jason's salient point that we can't just pencil him in for all of the vacated targets left by Austin Hooper. A close second is Rob Gronkowski, who will likely be the most efficient of the tight ends on new teams when it comes to converting targets into fantasy points.
If I'm looking for pure value as a late-round choice who has TE1, then I would add Greg Olsen into the discussion. I grant that it's hard to trust a 34-year old tight end who missed 18 games in the last three years, but he did make it through 14 last season while playing through an awful mix of quarterbacks. Russell Wilson loves targeting his tight ends in the middle of the field and especially in the red zone with 30 touchdowns to his tight ends over the last three years. Will Dissly is coming off back to back season-ending injuries and Olsen could easily approach his career-best eight touchdowns if he stays healthy. He caught 52 passes last year. It's all about value and Olsen is almost free and a great end-of-game pick for your best-ball or redraft strategy.
Andy Hicks
My first thought here was Hayden Hurst. He has been well discussed already, but first I will explain why all the expected starting fantasy tight ends that fit this category are riskier.
Rob Gronkowski as Jeff Haseley explained will be over a year and a half from playing a game. Gronkowski’s description of the agony he went through that forced him to stop playing lives fresh in my mind though and with one big hit in the wrong place or the Buccaneers season not going to the optimistic plan, and he may opt to return to the relative safety of the WWE.
Austin Hooper was almost escorted out the door by the Atlanta Falcons after posting career highs in all categories and seemingly set to be an integral part of their future. I’m surely not the only one who wasn’t overawed by his production despite the numbers. Moving to Cleveland where David Njoku resides also severely caps his upside.
Eric Ebron had that career year in 2018, but all around that is just as many touchdowns in the five years surrounding the big season. Add in injuries and poor form and there is way more downside than upside. Pittsburgh is an excellent opportunity for him though.
Onto Hurst, the former first-round pick for the Ravens. He was beaten out plain and simple by Mark Andrews. With Nick Boyle capable of starting for many franchises in the NFL, Baltimore had a luxury of depth at the position. When offered a second-round pick for Hurst by the Falcons it was a good move for both franchises. Hurst is a better athlete than Hooper and should suit the system in Atlanta. Matt Ryan knows how to use the position, while Todd Gurley, Calvin Ridley, and Julio Jones leave Hurst in a great position to be more than what the departed Hooper was able to provide.
Phil Alexander
I'm not buying what Devin is selling on the Ravens' Super Bowl window making them more likely to keep Hurst if they liked him. They drafted him in the first round at 25 years old in Round 1 two seasons ago. It's safe to say they liked him. But when they could recoup a second-round pick on a player with two non-descript seasons under his belt and address a position of need (which tight end certainly wasn't), they made the savvy move.
Maybe we can't plug Hurst into Hooper's 2019 numbers, but I'm inclined to believe he'll inherit enough of them to crack the top-12 tight ends. Ryan has long looked to his tight end as a security blanket and the Falcons offensive line kept him in constant need of an escape valve last year.
Since so much ground has been covered already in this thread on tight ends changing teams, I want to point out there are more players at the position we should be looking at who will benefit from other players switching cities:
- Blake Jarwin - Jason Witten's departure leaves Jarwin with an opportunity to earn the lion's share of Dallas' tight end snaps. Jarwin ranked eighth in yards per route run and 10th in catch rate at the position last season. Given a full-time role in what profiles as one of the league's better offenses, Jarwin is an intriguing breakout candidate you can currently score outside the Top 15.
Ian Thomas - Thomas has been laying in wait behind Greg Olsen for two years and is finally ready to bust loose. He's made the most of his limited opportunities despite dismal quarterback play when given a chance and should become a favorite of Teddy Bridgewater on third-downs and inside the red zone.
Jace Sternberger - No one is excusing the Packers for their befuddling draft, but maybe they felt swapping out Jimmy Graham for Sternberger was a significant enough upgrade to Aaron Rodgers pass-catcher corps. Sternberger is a seam-ripper who has 60-catch upside given Green Bay's lack of viable targets outside of Davante Adams.
Andrew Davenport
I think Ryan makes a great point when he said that Rob Gronkowski and Austin Hooper are in No Man's Land in fantasy drafts as far as tight ends go. I like both players but I don't see myself targeting them in typical redraft leagues because they are likely to be drafted at or near their ceiling because of either their name, or in Hooper's case, the recent production.
Instead I think I've got to put my vote on Hayden Hurst like a few of the other guys. Jason makes a good point that you can't simply put Hooper's numbers from last year on Hurst, but I think Jeff Pasquino's comment about the value of the selection is where I'm most persuaded. He's going outside the Top 12 tight ends in most drafts so it seems like the fantasy community is taking a cautious approach to this team change. But the Falcons like to use the position extensively and Hooper was able to pile up 97 targets in 13 games last year, a pace of 120 targets over a full season. Additionally, Dirk Koetter, the Atlanta offensive coordinator, has a strong track record of using his tight ends. The targets will be there in this offense so it seems like a strong play to combine Hurst's pedigree with the opportunities he'll have. It's far from a sure thing, but if Hurst can secure even 100 of those targets he's got a very good chance to finish inside the Top 10 at the position. Taking a chance on Hurst seems like one of those things that, even if we have some doubt, we just have to close our eyes and do it. His upside reaches to the Top 6 at the position and the conditions are there for him to be this year's breakout tight end a la Darren Waller and Mark Andrews last year. It's a gamble I plan to take this year.
