Who is your top running back on a different team in 2020? Are you targeting this player in a normal redraft league? Do you think they might be underrated by most of the fantasy community?
Chad Parsons
Todd Gurley gets my vote with his quality landing spot in Atlanta. Gurley was running on fantasy fumes by many heading into 2019, yet saw strong volume and produced a steady season despite the Rams overall taking a step back and many expected Darrell Henderson to challenge Gurley, at a minimum, for the lead job. Gurley snagged one of the few high-level landing spots this offseason in Atlanta and should see minimal dilution of his touches on a strong offense with Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Hayden Hurst as viable weapons. Gurley around RB20 in early ADP in redraft is appealing in the cheap RB1 option zone if loading up on other positions in the first 3-4 rounds or as an RB2 with RB1 upside in more balanced builds.
Jason Wood
There are really three options to choose from:
- Toddy Gurley in Atlanta
- Melvin Gordon in Denver
- David Johnson in Houston
Johnson is my least favorite of this group because the bloom was already off the rose with Johnson in Arizona and ended up being deemed expendable for Kenyan Drake. Based on my projections, Gurley slightly edges out Gordon right now, but I'm not beholden to keeping that viewpoint as the preseason gets underway. Gordon is healthier than Gurley, that's inarguable. What we don't know is how much Phillip Lindsay still figures into the Broncos' plans, whereas Gurley will get as many touches as his body can handle.
Jeff Pasquino
Jason hits it on the head with the top three options available for this list, but both neither back is a clear, top-end selection in the RB1 category. Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon are boh in the RB2 mix, but both have their issues. Gurley returns to his collegiate stomping grounds (Georgia) as the de facto top back in Atlanta with not much behind him to push for carries, but the question will be if he can hold up for a full season - something he has not done since 2016 with the Rams. Gordon goes to a team more likely to focus on running the ball, but as Jason mentions, both Phillip Lindsay and even Royce Freeman may steal touches, rendering all three at lower than expected value. If pushed to choose I would take Gurley with his known role and upside in a bigger offense, but the likelihood that he may reaggravate the knee at any time scares me off of spending a top-24 running back pick on him.
Jordan McNamara
Todd Gurley has a great situation in Atlanta where the interests of the player and team align for the opportunity of a high-end season. Gurley was handled with kid gloves by the Rams to preserve his knee after signing a big contract extension. This hurt Gurley's market value and led him to sign a one-year prove-it deal with Atlanta. With Gurley on a one year deal, Atlanta has no reason to preserve his long-term value by managing his workload. Combined, this creates a high volume opportunity for Gurley, in an offense filled with first-round picks that finished fifth in total yardage in 2019. At a mid to late RB2 cost, Gurley has top-10 upside in 2020.
Jeff Haseley
For me, this is down to Melvin Gordon, Todd Gurley, and the dark horse, David Johnson. Honorable mention to Matt Breida and Jordan Howard battling it out in Miami. I agree with the others about Todd Gurley being in a great situation going back to his Georgia roots with little to no competition at running back. However (Stephen A. Smith. voice), I am concerned about his knee. Cartilage just doesn't grow back and it could prove to be problematic that will be just enough for him to struggle but not be benched. I am concerned, but not overly worried, and perhaps his ideal situation will win out for me to draft him at his current ADP in redraft leagues this year, but the safest move may be to pass altogether.
As for Melvin Gordon, I tend to be more optimistic than pessimistic that he will see fulltime duties as the Broncos lead back. Yes, Phillip Lindsay will be involved as well, but I see Gordon as the primary back, which includes scoring opportunities. He'll be the lead dog on a team that will lean on the running game to control the flow of games. He is a three-down back with 40-50 reception and double-digit touchdown potential.
The dark horse for me is David Johnson. It's easy to write him off after he showed periods of decline last season. Or perhaps it was frustration that led to a lack of motivation and effort? Johnson injured his ankle in Week 6 which prompted the Cardinals to make a move by acquiring Kenyan Drake, who then erupted onto the scene in Arizona's zone spread offense that fit him to a tee. Even Chase Edmunds thrived in Kliff Kingsbury's offense. After the second consecutive year of offensive change in Arizona, maybe Johnson grew frustrated? Enter his situation in Houston. He gets a new start on a team desperate for a difference-maker at running back. Johnson will be 28 at the start of the season and he has something to prove. Reports have stated that he is working hard in the offseason to prepare for his Houston debut. One tidbit of information: Johnson was the No. 7 PPR running back before he injured his ankle last season. He still has the talent and he appears to be motivated to return to greatness. Sometimes you have to take a calculated gamble on a player. Johnson could fit that role this season.
Bob Henry
Jason teed this one up nicely. It's a three-man race. Looking at my *current* projections, I don't see a ton of separation between the three. Each has his positives and all three have associated risks. I agree with Jeff that Johnson could certainly bounce back. Of the three, I have him projected with the most carries and overall touches. Duke Johnson Jr has plenty of talent but it's doubtful that he'll take carries away. Unless someone like Scottie Phillips emerges from the depth chart Johnson should get the majority of carries barring injury (of course) or a free agent signing of someone like Devonta Freeman.
Gordon feels like the safest pick, but not without risk. He has played a 16 game season just once in five years. Pat Shurmur could ride him like he has other backs in his previous stops, but it's hard to imagine Phillip Lindsay not having a role given his production and talent.
With Gurley, it's all about his health. He still has to take and pass his physical with the Falcons and recent articles suggesting Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff doesn't even know his true health is alarming. If Gurley can squeeze another season of usage similar to last season, he will likely be the winner here given the opportunity on a Falcons offense that has generated tons of passing targets and red zone opportunities. He also has less competition on the depth chart but there is plenty of time left in the offseason for that to change.
Andy Hicks
Any back that could see 100 touches or more is in play so that opens up the field considerably. Not only do we have Gurley, David Johnson, and Melvin Gordon, but Matt Breida and Jordan Howard in Miami and Frank Gore with the Jets merit discussion. If Carlos Hyde, Devonta Freeman, and Lamar Miller sign with the right team they are worth a mention as well.
The Miami situation, in particular, intrigues me. Before Jordan Howard was injured last year he was the 17th ranked fantasy back. Not only did he hold Miles Sanders in check while with the Eagles he has a very good fantasy back with the Bears as well. The combination with Matt Breida will be particularly interesting. Breida struggles to take a load but is dynamic when healthy. The mix should work much better than the Kalen Ballage and Patrick Laird two-yard average mess from 2019.
Of the three major contenders I prefer David Johnson, one because he doesn’t have a degenerative condition limiting his upside and two because he doesn’t have a player of the caliber of Phillip Lindsay around. Lindsay has back-to-back 1000-yard seasons, while Duke Johnson Jr didn’t see 10 carries in any game, with five or less in more than half. The situation is set perfectly for David Johnson to be the main offensive weapon in Houston outside Deshaun Watson.
Phil Alexander
I would rank the usual suspects:
- Todd Gurley - He has the least competition for touches in this group, the best touchdown expectation, and should see a fair amount of targets. The dominant back we saw in 2017 and 2018 is probably a memory at this point, but at least Gurley has a clear path to touches, a favorable offense, and a one-year deal (so the Falcons won't be afraid to ride him until the wheels fall off and Gurley is motivated to score his next contract).
- David Johnson - Johnson is one spot ahead of Gordon in my rankings, so there isn't exactly a chasm between them. Like Bob, I have Johnson projected for more touches, which ultimately gives him the edge. But after watching Bill O'Brien mostly squander Duke Johnson Jr's ability as a pass-catcher, I'm nervous the majority of the former Cardinal's touches will come on the half-back dives formerly designed for Carlos Hyde. We've seen Johnson in that role before (2018 under Mike McCoy) and the results were not pretty. He also looked like he was made out of styrofoam last year.
- Melvin Gordon - Full disclosure, I completely lack conviction on Gordon. I'm unsure how to project his touches, have zero faith in Drew Lock as a quarterback, and question the Broncos offensive line (29th in our Matt Bitonti's early rankings). That said, Denver signed him to a fairly rich deal despite already having two capable running backs on the roster, and the young weapons surrounding Lock are intriguing. At his current RB17 ADP, the ceiling exists for Gordon to put your team over the top as an RB2 but Lindsay's presence and Lock's potential ineptitude make for a scary-low floor.
- Jordan Howard - I'm with Andy on Howard being the sleeper of this bunch. My initial RB23 ranking is probably too generous, but Miami ignoring the running back position until the final day of the draft (with the Breida trade) speaks to their confidence in Howard on base downs. Fantasy gamers mostly view Howard as an insufferable bore but he was an effective workhorse in Chicago before turning in a solid injury-shortened season in Philadelphia. Howard may end up the cheapest source of 230+ carries in fantasy this year.
Justin Howe
Breida and Howard are intriguing here. Few backs have been as productive as Breida, in particular, over the past few years. I know Kyle Shanahan played a role in that - then promptly gave up on him - but there's athleticism and versatility there. Dolphin runners were historically awful last year, but Breida and Howard represent a colossal leap in talent, and the team brought in five new front line starters.
Still, the answer here is Gurley, who sits alone atop a rich position in Atlanta. Over the past 3 years, running backs have averaged 25 touches and 122 scrimmage yards a game in the Falcons' potent offense. Gurley has only Brian Hill and Qadree Ollison to compete with; he could produce on an RB2 level with just 60-65% of that workload. And the Falcons tend to lean toward the run near the goal line, so Gurley's touchdown prowess (54 over his last 44 games) looks safe. That's what gives him his sneaky RB1 appeal.
Drew Davenport
I think David Johnson is the answer here. I'm not thrilled about him, but I think he's got the clearest path to touches and upside. Melvin Gordon is my second choice but I agree with several of the guys who pointed out that Phillip Lindsay is strong competition, and also that while optimism is high in Denver we really don't know how good the Denver offense is going to be.
Of course Todd Gurley is a consideration too, and while I recognize the situation as a great one for him, I can't get past my concerns with his knee. That problem is never going to get better, it can only stay the same or get worse. If he holds up he's got a great shot to produce, but I can't throw my weight behind it.
The choice, also fraught with risk, is David Johnson for me. I'm not convinced -- like everyone else -- that he's just a broken-down shell. He got into the NFL later in his career, coming in as a 24-year-old rookie. Two years ago he suffered a freak wrist injury, then last year he was doing just fine - as Jeff pointed out - before getting hurt before Week 6. Is it possible Johnson is breaking down? Sure, but he has less than 1,000 NFL touches across 5 seasons and there is no evidence that he's injury-prone outside of anecdotal comments about how he looked after the knee injury last year.
The major factor for me though is looking back at Carlos Hyde's 2019 season. Hyde put up over 1,000 total yards on 255 touches, and just 10 of those touches came through the air. At this point in their careers Johnson is still a better player than Hyde, I don't think that can be argued. So if Johnson steps into 250 touches, and has the chance for more, in a good offense I'm going to take that chance. He has very little competition and it wouldn't surprise me to see him catch 40 passes for those in PPR leagues. Johnson is certainly not safe, but he's my favorite running back to target who switched uniforms this year.
