Big news out of Kansas City as the Chiefs announced that Damien Williams will opt out of the 2020 season.
Statement from GM Brett Veach
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) July 29, 2020
“Damien Williams informed the club of his decision to opt out of the 2020 season." pic.twitter.com/dEQ2sUs9u2
Anyone can let you know what happened. But with Williams out of the picture this season, what does that actually mean for the rest of the Kansas City backfield?
We asked our staff to offer their thoughts on how to best answer that question.
Jeff Haseley
The news of Damien Williams opting out of the 2020 season has sent shockwaves across the fantasy community which automatically elevates rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire into a mid-late first-round selection. Kansas City may decide to pursue a veteran back to join the club but this is now Edwards-Helaire's backfield which could result in double-digit touchdowns for the rookie in a prominent role on a leading offense, not to mention 30-50 receptions. Ultimately, Edwards-Helaire becomes a hot target for a top 10 fantasy back in 2020. His redraft status now moves up to a mid-first round selection after Derrick Henry or Dalvin Cook depending on how you rank them. For me, it would be after Derrick Henry. Pick 1.06 seems to be the early sweet spot for when he could be drafted. As for Williams, he is an unrestricted free agent at the end of 2020, so this may mean he has played his last game with the Chiefs. Devonta Freeman or Lamar Miller are possible veteran targets, but also on the depth chart are Darrel Williams, DeAndre Washington, and last year's hype-darling, Darwin Thompson.
Dan Hindery
I was very bullish on Edwards-Helaire longer-term for dynasty leagues and wrote in February about how he had the best big-game performance of any player in college football last year. However, I was a bit worried that the lack of an offseason and presence of Damien Williams could lead him to get off to a slow start in his rookie season and have not been targeting him in the 2nd round in redraft leagues. With Williams out of the way now, there is no reason to expect a committee approach from the Chiefs. They drafted Edwards-Helaire in the first round to be the guy.
It is easy to get excited about his fantasy upside in this offense. Chiefs running back have scored 42 touchdowns over the last two seasons and put up huge numbers in each of the last two postseasons, as well. Kansas City has so much speed at wide receiver, it makes life easy for the running backs. Edwards-Helaire is going to face a lot of nickel and dime defenses and should have room to run. His upside is especially exciting in PPR leagues. Edwards-Helaire smashed the receiving record for SEC running backs last season and is a major mismatch out of the backfield.
In PPR, I would rank Edwards-Helaire all the way up at RB5, just ahead of Dalvin Cook (minor holdout risk). He is going to catch a lot of passes in this offense. In standard scoring, I still like Edwards-Helaire as a first-rounder but rank him as RB8 behind guys like Henry, Cook, and Mixon who probably will rack up more yards on the ground.
Jeff Tefertiller
I do not believe Edwards-Helaire will get more than 250 touches so it will mean savvy fantasy players must identify the upside back on the depth chart. I am going with veteran DeAndre Washington. His style is a great fit for the Chiefs.
If throwing a dart late in your fantasy draft, Washington has big-time upside in a very prolific offense.
Matt Waldman
I am upping my projected production for Edwards-Helaire but I am not convinced that this development makes him worth his ADP. The Chiefs have three experienced backs who could still keep Edwards-Helaire in a committee role, albeit a potentially larger share for him.
Darrel Williams brings a power element that Edwards-Helaire lacks. Darwin Thompson earned praise from the coaches after the draft for his consistent growth as a rookie. Thompson has superior contact balance, power, and speed to Edwards-Helaire. He’s also a more promising pass protector. Thompson has a chance to benefit significantly from the opt-out.
There’s also DeAndre Washington, who played well down the stretch for the Raiders. He’s the most experienced back but probably the least impressive runner.
This opt-out creates a scenario where the Edwards-Helaire touters will tell us not to overthink it. There’s validity to the thought, but Andy Reid has been known to maintain committees until one back displays 3-5 weeks of consistently high performance. There is also Devin’s accurate assertion that the Chiefs could opt for a veteran. I wouldn’t rule out them re-signing LeSean McCoy or Spencer Ware. The rookie will get a significant shot to earn the lead role but with the changes to practice and this environment, I am not sold.
Clayton Gray
Projecting rookies comes down to three things:
- Location -- The Kansas City offense is a prime spot for offensive production
- Competition -- It all just went away
- Ability -- Edwards-Helaire excelled in the SEC; he has the talent
It will be nearly impossible for someone to get into the conversation with Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, and Alvin Kamara, being the primary Kansas City running back puts Clyde Edwards-Helaire squarely into the next-group-up club.
His actual draft position comes down to risk tolerance. If you want proven production, guys like Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook, and Derrick Henry are more your speed.
But if you want a piece of the best offense in football and you want lightning in a bottle and you want boundless potential and you want next year's potential No. 1 overall fantasy pick, then you want Clyde Edwards-Helaire. I say get on board and enjoy the ride.
Devin Knotts
Wow, I'm stunned at how high everyone here is on Clyde Edwards-Helaire. I have him in line with Miles Sanders heading into this season as a mid-second round player which means I won't have any Edwards-Helaire on my teams this season. The offense is no doubt attractive, but with that comes limited opportunity with skill players all around Edwards-Helaire.
One of the big reasons that Edwards-Helaire fell as far as he did in the draft was concerns over his pass protection, and while Eric Bieniemy said he wasn't that concerned about it, he also called him a "piece of the puzzle" in the running game. Do we really think Week 1 comes around and they're going to trust a rookie who has a month of practice with no mini-camps to protect Patrick Mahomes II? I expect this will be a committee just like the Chiefs had been planning and whether that is someone on their current roster or they look at players such as Lamar Miller or Devonta Freeman to be added to the roster.
Andrew Davenport
I agree with Devin here. I still don't trust that Edwards-Helaire is given the keys to the offense for a while. I don't mind making the play to grab him so you can use him late in the season for a possible fantasy championship run, but just make sure you have alternate plans. I, along with everyone else, will always be excited to nab the top option in the Chiefs' attack, but I can't see spending a low first-round or early second-round pick on a guy that we literally have no information about due to the pandemic. To be clear, I think he has the upside to provide championship-caliber fantasy production down the road, just make sure you insure your pick with someone who can start for you for a while.
Darwin Thompson has been mentioned here, and I think he's still in the mix, but Darrel Williams is a name everyone likes to gloss over when looking at what Kansas City will do. He was performing quite admirably for them before getting hurt last year, and I expect he'll get the first crack at the starting job to start the year. If you get Edwards-Helaire on your team it shouldn't cost much to get Williams and have the situation well in hand. Obviously this changes if it looks like Thompson has made some strides, but for now, I believe Williams is next man up.
I think a veteran free agent is also a possibility, but I can't see getting excited over the options they have. Re-signing LeSean McCoy makes sense from a football perspective, but Reid clearly wasn't interested in him as the season wore on. I expect the Chiefs to do something, but I don't expect that it will be much of a fantasy impact.
Clayton Gray
If the Chiefs were willing to give serious run to Darrel Williams, Darwin Thompson, and DeAndre Washington, they wouldn't have spent a first-round pick on a running back.
David Dodds
I am buying the Kool-Aid. I expected Damien Williams to hold off Clyde Edwards-Helaire to start the season based mostly on Williams' production for the last two years in the playoffs.
But the Chiefs did not expend a 1st round pick to get their player to have him eased into a backfield that no longer has Damien Williams in it. Mahomes and Reid were giddy post-draft. In a year where rookies will have an uphill battle breaking into offenses, I expect Edwards-Helaire to start from week 1.
Scott Bischoff
We need to take a hard look at rookies and what they have done under Andy Reid. I think it is fair to consider any player taken in the first, second, or third round here. Here is the breakdown of players and statistics from their rookie seasons.
Reid was with the Philadelphia Eagles from 1999-2012 and over that time, the Eagles selected 10 players that meet the above criteria. The Eagles took quarterback Donovan McNabb in Round 1 in 1999, and he started six games during his rookie season. He threw for eight touchdowns and 848 yards and added 313 yards rushing over 47 carries.
Wide receiver and second-round pick Todd Pinkston managed 10 receptions and 181 yards in 2000. Receiver Freddie Mitchell was drafted in Round 1 in 2001, and he caught 21 passes and registered 283 yards and one score in his rookie season.
In 2002, the Eagles selected running back Brian Westbrook in Round 3. He had 46 carries for 193 yards, and he caught nine passes and totaled 86 yards receiving in year one. Tight end L.J. Smith was a second-round pick in 2003, and he put up 27 receptions, 321 yards and he scored once in his rookie season.
Wide receiver Reggie Brown was drafted in the second round in 2005 and he managed 43 catches, 571 yards, and four scores as a rookie. In 2007, quarterback Kevin Kolb was taken in Round 2, but he did not play as a rookie. Wide receiver DeSean Jackson was a second-rounder in 2008, and he totaled 62 catches, 912 yards, and two touchdowns in his first year.
In 2009, the Eagles selected receiver Jeremy Maclin in the first round. He caught 56 balls and registered 773 yards to go with four scores. The Eagles also nabbed running back LeSean McCoy in Round 2, and he had 155 carries, 637 yards and four scores as a runner. He also added 40 catches and 308 yards as a receiver.
Reid went to Kansas City in 2013 and remains as their head coach today. The Chiefs selected tight end Travis Kelce in Round 3 and he missed almost his entire rookie season with a knee injury and registered no stats. Running back Knile Davis was a third-rounder that same year, and he put up 242 yards on 70 carries while scoring four times as a rookie. He also caught 11 passes that went for 75 yards.
In 2015, the Chiefs took receiver Chris Conley in the third round. He caught 17 passes that went for 199 yards, and he scored one touchdown that year. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes II was taken in Round 1 in 2017, and he started one game in his rookie season, throwing for 284 yards and no touchdowns.
The Chiefs selected running back Kareem Hunt in 2017 in Round 3, and he registered 272 carries, 1327 yards, and eight scores as a runner. Hunt also caught 53 passes and totaled 455 yards and three scores as a receiver. The Chiefs nabbed receiver Mecole Hardman in the second round in 2019, and he caught 26 passes that went for 538 yards and six scores.
The runners that compare to Edwards-Helaire on this list are Westbrook and Hunt. In 2002, running back Duce Staley was entrenched as the started for the Eagles, and he blocked Westbrook's path to playing time. Hunt had a breakout rookie season in 2017, but the job was wide open with very little blocking his path to be a primary ball carrier. Edwards-Helaire's situation is similar to Hunt's.
There is no doubt Edwards-Helaire steps into a great situation, but history shows us that he may have to overcome the limitations placed upon him by Reid. It is reasonable to see Edwards-Helaire providing excellent production as a rookie, much like Hunt did, but history tells us he is going to have to earn it. He has the talent to do just that, but looking through the lens of today's NFL, if you are taking him early, you are putting a lot of faith and trust in Reid.
Phil Alexander
The word literally might literally be the most overused word in writing. But literally, the only thing ever standing between Clyde Edwards-Helaire and elite fantasy production in year-one was Damien Williams.
Now that Williams has removed himself from the equation, I can't believe people are citing Darrel Williams and Darwin Thompson as reasons to fade Edwards-Helaire. One of these guys won't even make the roster.
Citing pass-protection as a reason to doubt Edwards-Helaire having a first-round fantasy impact is just as short-sighted. Kareem Hunt played on 65% of Kansas City's offensive snaps as a rookie despite pass-blocking on just 11% of those snaps. He was too busy carrying the ball, running routes, and scoring fantasy points when he was on the field for pass-blocking to matter. Why won't the same be true of Edwards-Helaire?
Edwards-Helaire is up to No. 5 in both my running back and overall rankings. The offense is too good, his competition too bad, and Patrick Mahomes II' endorsement too meaningful to manufacture reasons to doubt the impact of Williams opting out.
Also, if any Chiefs backup running back should be moved up with this news, it should be DeAndre Washington, who now ranks as my RB45. Washington was dynamite in the passing game after Josh Jacobs was hurt last year. And according to Pro Football Focus, he has allowed just two pressures in 74 career snaps as a pass-blocker. If you want to know who will be protecting Patrick Mahomes II on critical passing downs, look no further. Should Edwards-Helaire miss time, Washington could help swing championships for a second consecutive season.
Will Grant
Not much else to add for analysis. I agree with Devin that Edwards probably moves into the first round of most fantasy leagues making him too rich for my blood. There's no way the Chiefs expected 350 touches from him this season, and that means his value lands him somewhere in the second round. I doubt he will be there in most fantasy drafts.
The next guy is gonna be interesting to watch. Once Thompson or Williams go, the others will quickly follow. Thompson is the guy id target, but you are probably looking at a fifth- or sixth-round pick to land him.
Signing a veteran is probably going to happen, but I'd expect that to be more insurance than anything. Spencer Ware night be worth a last round flyer as I doubt McCoy has another season in him.
Chad Parsons
One of my firm takes regarding opt-outs, August injuries, or say a COVID-19 designation for a player soon is that the reaction for the remaining depth chart will in general be an overreaction. This is especially true with running backs. In these cases, teams will have time to pivot and address the situation, which is far different than the typical fall-out once the season is rolling along. Devonta Freeman and Lamar Miller are fully functional veteran running backs seeking employment. They are circling depth charts like the proverbial vultures for an opportunity as a 1A or 1B back. I have concerns about the profile of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and more early opportunities would not change those as they are player-centric, not situation-centric. Also, I would add DeAndre Washington is an underrated NFL talent and Darrel Williams has some Alfred Blue to his game where I can see him sticking around the NFL for far longer than nearly all would project from this point forward. I was already out on Edwards-Helaire's price and this shift would certainly keep him on that side of the 2020 fence.
Phil Alexander
Will, with respect, two running backs reached 350 touches last season. And how much more is a touch worth in Kansas City's offense than on any other team in the league?
Give me a modest 260 touches and most of the pass-catching work out of the Chiefs backfield, and I stand by ranking Edwards-Helaire inside the Top 5.
Jordan McNamara
has a great breakdown of rookies under Reid. I love Clyde Edwards-Helaire the player. His performance against Alabama in 2019 was one of the best running back performances in recent college history. My question is the athleticism and the cost. Taking him in the mid-first round feels like an unforced error this year. The COVID-19 restrictions have limited rookie development and I want to be conservative with the cost I spend on them this year. There are years to take a big swing on rookies in the first round of rookie drafts. In a year you can select Nick Chubb in the second round, LeVeon Bell or Leonard Fournette in the third round, I'm not sure the risk is necessary in the first round.
I also think the Chiefs add another back. If they do not, I'm smashing Darrel Williams as a one-injury-away backup in 2020.
Clayton Gray
Late-summer, unsigned veteran running backs are among the most overrated players in the fantasy world. There's a reason these guys are unemployed. If signed, they'll almost certainly be insurance for Edwards-Helaire and nothing more.
Chad Parsons
Wasn't Adrian Peterson - assumed to be washed up - exactly that?
Clayton Gray
Sure. There are always exceptions.
There was also DeAngelo Williams and Chris Johnson in 2017, DeMarco Murray and Jamaal Charles in 2018, and Jeremy Hill and Jonathan Stewart in 2019. And countless others.
