This series distills NFL charts into easily digestible fantasy football information for opportunity and upside. In this installment, the quarterbacks are the featured position.
Links to entire series:
The Good
The High-Upside and Solid Starter subsets are robust entering 2020 with 25 teams under those qualifiers. The elite fantasy producers are a tough tier to crack for up-and-coming options, especially without strong rushing upside (see Lamar Jackson in 2019) or elevating into an elite passer. The No.1 overall quarterback in 2020 has close to double-digit realistic challengers. This is all the more reason to wait on the position in 1QB formats unless there is a glaring value early. Superflex or 2QB formats are a similar story within the position as even waiting until 10-12 quarterbacks are gone results in multiple high-upside options remaining and most, if not all, of the solid starters on the matrix.
The Bad
If poking holes in some of the solid starters, multiple have minimal NFL depth chart risk but their even reasonable upside for fantasy is limited. Joe Burrow, even as the No.1 overall pick, joins a historical group dating back to the mid-1990s where the average No.1 pick is QB24 in their first season. Drew Lock started a mere handful of games and is a major projection as Round 2 quarterbacks rarely venture into the top-12 territory for even a single season.
Sam Darnold's job is safe - for now - but the former No.3 overall pick has QB25 as his career-high through two seasons and the notable additions to the passing game this offseason are career retread Breshad Perriman and sliding-in-the-draft Denzel Mims. Ryan Tannehill has job security for 2020 but has been a career QB2 for fantasy purposes outside of his by-far personal best QB9 finish a handful of years ago and his low-volume hot streak to finish 2020. Finally, Jimmy Garoppolo leads a strong 49ers team, but one where Garoppolo has rarely been leaned on as an offensive centerpiece in their run-game-and-defense mantra.
The (Potentially) Ugly
The Bears have already announced a quarterback battle between Nick Foles and Mitchell Trubisky. Neither is a high-upside option on a team looking for developing weapons beyond Allen Robinson. Gardner Minshew is the unquestioned starter in Jacksonville, but the franchise points in a rebuilding year direction with veteran salary which has already been shed and an anemic Vegas over/under for their win total with high-end quarterbacks on the horizon in the 2021 NFL Draft. Jake Luton was a not insignificant rookie addition with pocket nuance and enough arm strength and accuracy to see a shot in 2020 if Minshew should falter.
The Dolphins have Mr.High Variance (unofficial title) in Ryan Fitzpatrick to start until the team turns over to Tua Tagovailoa, pointing to a split season of starts at a minimum. The same potential split could appear with the Chargers in Tyrod Taylor and Justin Herbert, albeit to a lesser degree with Taylor years removed from showing viability as an NFL starter. The Patriots are Tom Brady-less for the first time in the lives of anyone who cannot vote with Brian Hoyer an uninspiring veteran and Jarrett Stidham as the What if? young possibility.
Derek Carr has a short leash with the Raiders, and Marcus Mariota is in the so-called Ryan Tannehill spot to take advantage if Carr does not return to his MVP-like form from earlier in his career. Finally, Dwayne Haskins had a few flashes as a 2019 rookie but as many or more rough moments to make 2020 a critical year with, like Jacksonville, a low Vegas win total and a strong 2021 draft class approaching. Add to Haskins' roadblocks a new offensive install in which offseason addition Kyle Allen has previous experience.
